Data Points to Solid U.S. Retail Spending. But There Are Plenty of Troubling Signs.

Yahoo

2 days ago

Key Takeaways
July reversed a decline in month-to-month retail spending, with sales rising 1.5%, according to the National Retail Federation.
The trade group and analysts from Bank of America said the number may be benefitting from temporary factors, such as back-to-school spending and Prime Day.
Investors will get fresh insight on Friday, when the federal government is slated to release its retail data.
Retail spending was solid in July, according to new data. But will it be enough to quell concerns about tariffs and inflation?
Retail sales, exclusive of car and gas spending, rose 1.5% from June to July, reversing a 0.3% decrease from May to June, the National Retail Federation said this week ahead of government retail data due Friday. Retail spending is a closely watched measure of consumer financial health; economists expect Friday's report to show July sales up 0.5% from June, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.
Sales for the month rose 5.9% year-over-year, but the trade group said it was difficult to determine what drove up spending. Retail sales were relatively weak in June, NRF said, while back-to-school spending and a longer Prime Day may have inflated July's numbers, Bank of America said.
Executives at a range of companies have hinted at cautious consumers during the second-quarter earnings season. Wall Street analysts have suggested that shoppers have continued to spend, but sought opportunities to trade down to cheaper versions of desired items.
'It is possible some of the increase in spending was due to retailers passing through current or prospective tariff increases onto customers,' Bank of America wrote in an analysis of credit and debit card spending in July that pointed toward a smaller increase in the number of card transactions per household than in dollars spent.
Annual inflation in July was on par with the 2.7% rate reported in June, coming in just below what economists expected. Economists generally believe tariffs will lead to price increases, and potentially, spikes in inflation, though some think that companies have yet to pass along as much of the effect of tariffs to consumers as they may in the second half of the year.
Cautious consumer spending has come up on a number of retailers' recent conference calls, including the outdoor gear company Yeti Holdings (YETI), the athletic apparel brand Under Armour (UA) and burger chains Jack in the Box (JACK) and McDonald's (MCD). Lower-priced store-brand products have seen more take-up lately, some grocers and food companies have said.
"Guests continue to manage their check by ordering fewer beverages and appetizers as well as trading down to lower-priced items on our menus," John Peyton, CEO of the parent company of Applebee's and IHOP, Dine Brands Global (DIN), said on a recent conference call.
The economic climate is hitting low-income consumers, who appear to be getting fewer hours of work while maintaining similar spending levels, harder, Bank of America said.
'The low-end consumer is a consumer that we believe is most sensitive to price increases, is most nervous, and, in some cases, is not leaving the house,' Crocs (CROX) CEO Andrew Rees said on a conference call last week, according to a transcript from AlphaSense.
Read the original article on Investopedia