First Atlantic hurricane Erin is brewing THIS WEEK as spaghetti models reveal path to US
AccuWeather meteorologists warned the system could soon be named Erin, potentially reaching hurricane strength by August 14 and intensifying to a Category 3 by August 16.
Senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said: 'Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes.'
The storm, currently known as Invest 97L, has a 90 percent chance of developing into a cyclone within the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Spaghetti models showed it curving northward along the US East Coast, with the potential for landfall or a close approach.
A spaghetti model shows possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
'The upper-air pattern late this week favors it turning north and likely staying east of the US East Coast,' Merrill added.
'However, rough surf and rip currents could increase along East Coast beaches next weekend into early the following week.'
Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across the Cabo Verde Islands into early this week as the storm moves westward over the Atlantic.
The system rates less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for the islands. By late week, it is forecast to turn northward just north of the Caribbean.
'Invest 97L has already drawn attention as a contender for the next named storm of the season (Erin),' WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut told USA Today.
The NHC noted the system will continue moving west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Meteorologist Jim Cantore wrote on X that there is strong confidence the system will intensify as it crosses the Atlantic.
'It's already the best-looking wave of the season,' he said. 'Most reliable hurricane guidance makes it a hurricane by midweek.
'The question is how much. Does it stall? Is the timing of a mid-latitude trough in play or not? Lots to watch, but our first 2025 Atlantic hurricane, and then some, is highly probable.'
Meteorologists show a 90 percent chance of it developing into a cyclone this week, and believe it will reach hurricane status by Thursday. There are two other disturbances in the Atlanitc
Whether the storm stays well offshore, potentially threatening Bermuda, or shifts toward the US coastline remains uncertain.
The NHC is also monitoring AL96 in the Atlantic, a weak trough of low pressure producing only limited showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development is unlikely as the system drifts northward, with just a 10 percent chance of formation over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days.
In addition, a non-tropical low-pressure system a few hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, where some tropical or subtropical development could occur within the next day or two.
By midweek, however, it will move into cooler waters, ending its chances of development.
The NHC also places its formation chance at 10 percent over the next 48 hours and seven days.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
a minute ago
- The Independent
Parts of Juneau brace for flooding from water slipping past Alaska's Mendenhall Glacier
Sections of Alaska 's capital city are bracing for the arrival of what could be record floodwaters due to rainwater and snowmelt flowing downstream from a basin dammed by the Mendenhall Glacier. Some Juneau residents in the flood zone have evacuated, heeding warnings. On Tuesday morning, authorities confirmed water had started escaping the ice dam, with flooding expected into Wednesday. The Mendenhall Glacier is about 12 miles (19 kilometers) from Juneau, home to 30,000 people, and is a popular tourist attraction due to its proximity to Alaska's capital city and easy access on walking trails. Homes on the city's outskirts are within miles of Mendenhall Lake, which sits below the glacier, and many front the Mendenhall River, into which the glacial outburst is flowing. The National Weather Service said it expected flooding to to peak around 8 a.m. to noon on Wednesday. 'This will be a new record, based on all of the information that we have,' Nicole Ferrin, a weather service meteorologist, told a news conference Tuesday. Basin flooding is a yearly worry Flooding from the basin has become an annual concern since 2011, and in recent years has swept away houses and swamped hundreds of homes. Government agencies installed temporary barriers this year in hopes of protecting several hundred homes in the inundation area from widespread damage. The flooding happens because a smaller glacier near Mendenhall Glacier retreated — a casualty of the warming climate — and left a basin that fills with rainwater and snowmelt each spring and summer. When the water creates enough pressure, it forces its way under or around the ice dam created by the Mendenhall Glacier, enters Mendenhall Lake and eventually flows down the Mendenhall River, as it did Tuesday. Before the basin began overtopping, the water level was rising rapidly — as much as 4 feet (1.22 meters) per day during especially sunny or rainy days, according to the National Weather Service. The city saw successive years of record flooding in 2023 and 2024 — with the river last August cresting at 15.99 feet (4.9 meters), about 1 foot (30 centimeters) over the prior record set a year earlier — and flooding extending farther into the Mendenhall Valley. This year's flooding was predicted to crest at between 16.3 and 16.8 feet (4.96 to 5.12 meters). Last year, nearly 300 residences were damaged. A large outburst can release some 15 billion gallons of water, according to the University of Alaska Southeast and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center. That's the equivalent of nearly 23,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. During last year's flood, the flow rate in the rushing Mendenhall River was about half that of Niagara Falls, the researchers say. A temporary levee is installed City officials responded to concerns from property owners this year by working with state, federal and tribal entities to install a temporary levee along roughly 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) of riverbank in an attempt to guard against widespread flooding. The 10,000 'Hesco' barriers are essentially giant sandbags intended to protect more than 460 properties completely during an 18-foot (5.5-meter) flood event, said emergency manager Ryan O'Shaughnessy. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is at the start of what's expected to be a yearslong process of studying conditions in the region and examining options for a more permanent solution, such as a levee. The timeline has angered some residents, who say it's unreasonable. Outburst floods are expected to continue as long as the Mendenhall Glacier acts as an ice dam to seal off the basin, which could span another 25 to 60 years, according to the university and science center researchers. ___ Associated Press writer Becky Bohrer in Juneau contributed to this report.
Metro
11 hours ago
- Metro
Tropical Storm Erin tracker shows where hurricane could hit US
Tropical Storm Erin has formed and appears likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season – and the forecast shows it could strike the US. Erin was named on Monday, and as of 11am ET Tuesday was 820 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The storm was traveling west at 23mph and is predicted to continue in that direction through early Thursday. It has maximum sustained winds of 45mph, and could become a hurricane by late Thursday. 'Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane by day 5 (early Sunday),' stated the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday morning. It has a 'west-northwestward' motion that could continue into the weekend, that puts it on the path of the US. 'Although it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin might bring to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the risk has increased for Erin to move closer to these islands over the weekend,' stated the center. 'Interests there should monitor the progress of this storm.' There were no coastal warnings or watches in place as of the Tuesday morning update. But Erin brought flash flooding to the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend as it developed into a tropical storm. AccuWeather meteorologists remain 'highly concerned for a period of rapid strengthening from late this week to this weekend', said the organization's chief on-air meteorologist, Bernie Rayno. More Trending If Erin continues on its westerly path, it could sweep across the Leeward Islands. Erin could lose some of its wind intensity in the next 24 to 48 hours, but that is only expected to happen for a short time before it regains strength. A tropical storm turns into a hurricane when its maximum sustained winds get to at least 74mph. There is a 50% chance of this hurricane season, which runs June 1 to the end of November, being above normal. Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@ For more stories like this, check our news page. MORE: How did Storm Erin get its name and what comes next in 2025? MORE: Why does 30 degrees in the UK feel like it 'hits different'? MORE: Don't take cold showers and other expert tips to sleep better during a UK heatwave
The Independent
11 hours ago
- The Independent
Ice dam at Alaska's Mendenhall Glacier releases floodwater toward downstream homes
A huge basin of rainwater and snowmelt dammed by Alaska's Mendenhall Glacier has started to release, and officials on Tuesday urged residents in some parts of Juneau to evacuate ahead of what could be a record surge of floodwater downstream. Officials in recent days have been warning people in the flood zone to be ready to evacuate. On Tuesday morning they confirmed water had started escaping the ice dam and flowing downstream, with flooding expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. Flooding from the basin has become an annual concern, and in recent years has swept away houses and swamped hundreds of homes. The Mendenhall Glacier — a thinning, retreating glacier that is a major tourist attraction in southeast Alaska — acts as a dam for Suicide Basin, which fills each spring and summer with rainwater and snowmelt. The basin itself was left behind when a smaller glacier nearby retreated. When the water in the basin builds up enough pressure, it forces its way under or around the ice dam, entering Mendenhall Lake and eventually the Mendenhall River. Before the basin reached the limit of its capacity and began overtopping over the weekend, the water level was rising rapidly — as much as 4 feet (1.22 meters) per day during especially sunny or rainy days, according to the National Weather Service. The threat of so-called glacier outburst flooding has troubled parts of Juneau since 2011. In some years, there has been limited flooding of streets or properties near the lake or river. But 2023 and 2024 marked successive years of record flooding, with the river last August cresting at 15.99 feet (4.9 meters), about 1 foot (0.3 meters) over the prior record set a year earlier, and flooding extending farther into the Mendenhall Valley. Last year, nearly 300 residences were damaged. A large outburst can release up to 15 billion gallons of water, according to the University of Alaska Southeast and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center. That's the equivalent of nearly 23,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. During last year's flood, the flow rate in the rushing Mendenhall River was about half that of Niagara Falls, the researchers say. City officials responded to concerns from property owners this year by working with state, federal and tribal entities to install a temporary levee along roughly 2.5 miles of riverbank in an attempt to guard against widespread flooding. The installation of about 10,000, four-foot (1.2-meter) tall barriers is intended to protect more than 460 properties from flood levels similar to last year, said Nate Rumsey, deputy director with the city's engineering and public works department. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is at the start of what's expected to be a yearslong process of studying conditions in the region and examining options for a more permanent solution. The timeline has angered some residents, who say it's unreasonable. Outburst floods are expected to continue as long as the Mendenhall Glacier acts as an ice dam to seal off the basin, which could span another 25 to 60 years, according to the university and science center researchers. ___
