Libman: Referendum pledge puts PQ leader in a bind
Last week's Léger poll on provincial sovereignty in Canada contained an eye-popping revelation: Among all provinces, Quebec had the greatest proportion of respondents 'opposed' to separation, at 59 per cent.
Support for sovereignty was tagged at 33 per cent, near where it's been hovering for years. It's lower than support in Manitoba/Saskatchewan and well behind the 41 per cent in Alberta. Ontario was at 31 per cent.
Having the highest number against sovereignty was explained by the fact that most Quebecers are already decided on the question, while in other provinces there were more who didn't answer.
With a Quebec election next year, this is a warning light on Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's dashboard, putting him in a tight spot.
After the separatist party suffered its worst defeat in its history, reduced to just three seats, PSPP had to consolidate the PQ base — and he defiantly committed to holding a sovereignty referendum in his first term if elected.
Despite being numerically marginalized in the National Assembly, the PQ MNAs were able to generate catchy headlines, like refusing to swear allegiance to the King in the oath of office, which was subsequently changed.
As voters grew weary of François Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec government, combined with a weakened and leaderless Liberal party, the PQ suddenly found itself leading in polls as the default option where Quebecers were parking their vote, and has led ever since.
The commitment to a sovereignty referendum, however, could become the PQ's biggest hurdle in transforming its current lead into a victory in next year's election.
We're entering an unpredictable political maze now in Quebec, with polls containing many ifs, ands or buts:
The CAQ is seemingly in free fall. Will Legault be pushed to resign, with the hope for a momentous turnaround like the federal Liberals?
The Quebec Liberal Party support among francophone voters is only 10 per cent. Will its new leader — to be chosen in two weeks — be able to change that?
The PQ leads the polls with 33 per cent support, but 30 per cent of its own voters are against separation — and only 24 per cent of Quebecers think PSPP would make the best premier.
PSPP has had a fairly easy ride so far in opposition, left free to launch his attacks. But as federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has learned, that's different from positioning yourself as leader of a government. And the leadership question will only draw more attention as the election comes into sharper focus.
Just last week PSPP was on the defensive for taking the populist position that Quebec should lower its carbon pricing — then was pressured to answer to environmental concerns and where he would account for the $1.5-billion shortfall in government revenues.
PSPP generated more headlines this week with a motion calling to cut ties with the monarchy, criticizing what many saw as an archaic spectacle in Ottawa and ridiculing the notion that having King Charles read the throne speech would impress U.S. President Donald Trump as an expression of Canadian sovereignty.
Many, particularly Quebecers, believe that clinging to the monarchy is a wasteful expense in this day and age. But calling the monarchy hostile toward Quebec and francophones, which PSPP also levelled at Mark Carney, comes across as foolish rhetorical excess.
In the recent federal election, a majority of Quebec voters saw Carney as the adult in the room. They want stability and poise during these uncertain times with Trump in the White House. The turbulent prospect of another Quebec sovereignty referendum would bring the opposite.
Once chosen, the next Quebec Liberal leader should immediately start hounding PSPP on if and when he would call a referendum, which most Quebecers decidedly don't want.
Will he back down, or will the PQ's raison d'être again become its biggest obstacle to power?
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