Nawrocki's victory is a huge triumph for Trump
The EU Commission had obviously hoped for the victory of the liberal Europhile mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, who was a vocal proponent of the Brussels consensus on abortion, gay rights and even the liberalised migration rules backed by Poland's current premier and ex-EU insider, Donald Tusk. But these views were vehemently rejected by the nationalist winner, Karol Nawrocki.
The new president also has a track record of being a fierce critic of Russia and has personally antagonised the Kremlin by supporting the removal of Soviet war memorials as well as Communist monuments in Poland, but his victory is a mixed blessing for Ukraine. Unlike the EU's two pro-Russian governments in Hungary and Slovakia, Nawrocki is no Kremlin apologist.
As an historian Nawrocki has emphasised Poland's long history of repression by the Russian empire as well as the Soviet Union, so he is not a friend of the Kremlin. But, like his ally, the current Polish President, Andrzej Duda, Nawrocki does not ignore the bitter history of Polish-Ukrainian relations which Putin's invasion briefly papered over. Economic factors also haunt Warsaw's relations with Kyiv.
Polish farmers made up a key component of the new Polish president's election winning coalition. They have been bitterly opposed to the EU's lifting of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural exports since Putin's invasion. Although Brussels has in fact announced a reintroduction of tariffs on Ukrainian exports, the prospect of Ukraine's joining the EU means free trade in foodstuffs is back on the horizon.
Recently, Poland's economy has grown at far faster rates than the sclerotic big three of the EU, Germany, France and Italy. Economic prosperity has boosted Poland's ability to fund a serious defence build up.
Given the powerful voice that the Polish president has in foreign affairs and defence matters, Nawrocki's election will give Trump an important ally among the European leaders and sideline Donald Tusk, whose status as the EU's man in Warsaw makes him a red rag to the US president.
Nawrocki's victory is the first success for Trump-style populism after the interventions by his vice-president, JD Vance, and other Maga voices in the recent German and Romanian elections had backfired. But Poland's new president got a boost from American Republicans in the days before the polls and looks set to continue his predecessor's close relationship with the Trump White House.
Nawrocki's victory will add to Trump's pressure to turn EU rhetoric about rebuilding European states' defence capacity into concrete measures on the Polish model. Poland will emphasise US leadership rather than the more nebulous European strategic autonomy as promoted by France's Emmanuel Macron. Nawrocki's upset victory is a win for the West, but not for 'Europe'.
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The Independent
6 minutes ago
- The Independent
US and Russia suggest ‘West Bank-style occupation of Ukraine'
The U.S. and Russia are set to suggest a 'West Bank-style' occupation of Ukraine as a way of ending the war, according to The London Times. Under the proposed plans, Russia would have both economic and military control of the occupied parts of Ukraine, utilizing its own governing body, mimicking Israel's control of Palestinian territory taken from Jordan during the 1967 conflict. The suggestion was put forward during discussions between President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterparts, a source with insight into the U.S. National Security Council told the paper. Witkoff, who also serves as the White House's Middle East envoy, reportedly backs the suggestion, which the U.S. believes will solve the issue of the Ukrainian constitution prohibiting giving up territory without organizing a referendum. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected any notion of ceding territory, the new occupation proposal may lead to a truce following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. According to the proposal, Ukraine's borders would remain officially unchanged, similar to the borders of the West Bank, even as Israel controls the territory. 'It'll just be like Israel occupies the West Bank,' the source told The Times. 'With a governor, with an economic situation that goes into Russia, not Ukraine. But it'll still be Ukraine, because … Ukraine will never give up its sovereignty. But the reality is it'll be occupied territory and the model is Palestine,' the source added to the paper. The proposal will almost certainly be part of discussions between Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin set for Friday in Alaska. On Wednesday, Zelensky met with European leaders and Trump ahead of the Russia summit. Zelensky is not set to attend Friday's summit in person. Trump reaffirmed during the Wednesday meeting that territorial issues can only be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, according to French president Emmanuel Macron. The French leader also said Trump wants a ceasefire plan to be finalized during his Friday meeting. 'Any issue which deals with the territorial integrity of Ukraine cannot be discussed just like that, without looking at our constitution and the will of our people,' Zelensky told the press on Friday. 'As to our principles, as to our territorial integrity, in the end, will be decided on the level of leaders. Without Ukraine (at the table), it's impossible to achieve,' Zelensky added. Zelensky said that a ceasefire should be reached and then security guarantees. He also said that sanctions against Russia should be imposed if no ceasefire deal is reached in Alaska. As details of any potential ceasefire are being discussed, the U.S. believes that the 'West Bank-style' deal is the reality of war and the refusal of other nations to directly fight Russia, according to The Times. In May, U.S. Senior Director for Counterterrorism Sebastian Gorka, told Politico that 'The Trump administration lives in the real world.' 'We recognize the reality on the ground,' he added. 'No. 1, that's the beginning because we're not utopianists and we're not human engineers. We're not some kind of pie-in-the-sky believers in utopia.' He went on to say that 'We recognize the reality on the ground and we have one priority above all else, whether it's the Middle East or whether it's Ukraine. It's to stop the bloodshed. Everything else comes after the bloodshed has been halted.' The International Court of Justice has ruled that Israel's occupation of the West Bank is illegal. The occupation isn't recognized by the U.S., and it's only partially recognized by Russia. Last September, the United Nations ordered Israel to end the occupation by a vote of 124 to 14, with 43 countries abstaining. The resolution stated that Israel must adhere to international law within 12 months, pull back its military, end all settlement efforts, evacuate all settlers from the occupied territories, and remove parts of the wall separating the West Bank. Israel has ignored the resolution and voted against the measure, as did the U.S. Israel has faced widespread condemnation over its occupation and the settlement efforts. More than 150 have been established in recent years. Citizens of Israel who live in the West Bank must adhere to Israeli law, while Palestinians are subject to martial law, and they're unable to vote in Israeli national elections.
The Guardian
7 minutes ago
- The Guardian
As Ukraine battles to hold lines, Trump may find Putin difficult to persuade
For Ukraine, the break in the frontline is unfortunately timed. Lightly armed Russian saboteur groups – three on one count – cut though Ukrainian positions in the Donbas countryside east of the key junction at Dobropillia. Though one group has been eliminated, as of Tuesday two were thought to remain at large – and although their numbers are small for now, perhaps 20 to 30, the breach is significant. At the beginning of the year it was safe to visit Dobropillia, which had become a bustling market centre busy with soldiers and locals, nearly 15 miles north of the frontline in Pokrovsk. But since then the town, where once busy supply roads from Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk split, has come under sustained attack with glide bombs, while FPV (first person view) drones strike targets on the move. It is part of an increasingly coordinated battle strategy by the invaders. Experts say Russia has become more effective at targeting Ukrainian drone teams in the field and forces on the move. Even before the weekend, the southerly T0514 supply road to Kramatorsk was at risk of attack, while a Russian military blogger described 'the systematic elimination' of Ukrainian crews. At the same time, Ukraine's forces appear increasingly stretched. Critics such as Bohdan Krotevych, a former chief of staff at the Azov brigade, say too much attention has been focused on infantry counterstrikes in Pokrovsk – 'a soap bubble that will soon burst' – and not enough on augmenting defences to hold existing lines. Ukraine's military, at the urging of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sent in Azov to try to eliminate the infiltrators. But however small their numbers are, there are more Russians nearby. Ukraine's high command said on Tuesday there were about 110,000 Russian troops near Pokrovsk – and Zelenskyy said another 12,000 were expected to come from Sumy in the north-east to join them in an offensive. All this comes two days before Donald Trump hosts Vladimir Putin at a US military base in Alaska. It is not entirely clear what Putin has offered to win the prize of a summit on American soil, amid talk that Trump's negotiator, the real estate developer Steve Witkoff, misunderstood what the Russian leader said last week. However, Zelenskyy thinks Putin will offer to agree to a ceasefire only if Ukraine voluntarily gives up the 3,400 square miles of Donetsk oblast it holds, including Kramatorsk. It is not an offer that Ukraine can accept, as Zelenskyy has repeatedly made clear in the last week. But Trump may well find it difficult to persuade Putin to shift his position if the Russian leader sees that Kyiv cannot snuff out the incursion. Already Putin thinks Russia is slowly winning the Ukraine war, and while previous advances near Pokrovsk have been costly and slow for the attackers, it is possible there will be an acceleration in momentum. Last August, Ukraine launched a surprise offensive into the Kursk region of Russia, penetrating more than 12 miles deep. It restored morale in Kyiv and promised a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations. But as Russia fought back, that notional value has disappeared. Though the Kursk offensive prevented Russia from mounting an effective offensive in Donbas in 2024, with the benefit of a longer view the problem for Ukraine may only have been deferred into 2025. Throughout the war, Russia has shown it struggles to capture small urban centres. It took a year to capture Bakhmut, also in Donbas, in May 2023. Pokrovsk was evacuated last August and was expected to fall within weeks. Though Russian forces have reached the edge of the city they have still not captured it, concentrating instead on slowly trying to envelop it. Where Russia has been more successful is in rural areas. It will now hope to cut off more roads coming west into Kramatorsk, the heart of Donetsk oblast that Putin so badly wants. The invaders are helped by the growing range of FPV drones, including unjammable fibre-optic craft, rapidly extending the so-called 'kill zone' to 9-12 miles or more. Even so, any Russian progress cross-country is likely to be slow: 34 miles has been occupied in 17 months since the centre of the Donestk front began to give way in February 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War. On Wednesday afternoon Trump insisted there would be 'very severe consequences' for Putin unless he agreed to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians such as Halyna Yanchenko, an MP in Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party, pin their hopes on Trump levying secondary sanctions on Russia's oil exports to China, worth €4.1bn last month, partly because there is no prospect of any other form of US intervention. An extraordinary set of figures provided by Zelenskyy illustrated the key problem Ukraine faces and what Putin is prepared to do. On Monday, he said, there were 531 soldiers on Russia's side killed, 428 wounded and nine captured, while on Ukraine's side 18 were killed, 243 wounded and 79 went missing. Despite the disparity, Russia attacks every day, taking similar numbers of casualties as it does so. As long as there continues to be no domestic resistance in Russia, the likelihood is that Putin will feel he can afford to string out negotiations with Trump, despite the threats.
Times
2 hours ago
- Times
US and Russia ‘propose West Bank-style occupation of Ukraine'
Russia and the United States have discussed a model for ending the war in Ukraine that mirrors Israel's occupation of the West Bank, The Times has been told. Under this scenario Russia would have military and economic control of occupied Ukraine under its own governing body, imitating Israel's de facto rule of Palestinian territory seized from Jordan in 1967. The idea was raised weeks ago in discussions between Steve Witkoff, President Trump's peace envoy, and his Russian counterparts, according to a source close to the US national security council. Witkoff, who is also tasked by Trump with bringing peace to the Middle East, is understood to support the idea, which the Americans believe circumvents barriers in the Ukrainian constitution to ceding territory without holding an 'all-Ukraine' referendum. President Zelensky has refused to countenance handing over land but the occupation model may be a mechanism to allow for a truce after three and a half years of war. Under the model, Ukraine's borders would not change, just as the borders of the West Bank have gone unchanged for 58 years, only under Israeli control. 'It'll just be like Israel occupies the West Bank,' the source said before Trump's summit with President Putin in Alaska on Friday. 'With a governor, with an economic situation that goes into Russia, not Ukraine. But it'll still be Ukraine, because … Ukraine will never give up its sovereignty. But the reality is it'll be occupied territory and the model is Palestine.' Anna Kelly, the deputy White House press secretary, said: 'This is total fake news and sloppy reporting by The Times, who clearly has terrible sources. Nothing of the sort was discussed with anyone at any point.' Zelensky in the Kharkiv region this month UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES Israel's occupation has been ruled illegal by the International Court of Justice, which is not recognised by the US and only partially accepted by Russia. In March 2022 the court ordered Russia to 'immediately suspend military operations' in Ukraine, by a vote of 13 to two in which Russian and Chinese judges were opposed. The order is binding on Russia but the court has no means of enforcing it. The United Nations has ordered Israel to end its occupation, most recently in a vote of the general assembly last September by 124 nations to 14, with 43 abstentions. The resolution called for Israel to comply with international law within 12 months and withdraw its military forces, immediately cease all new settlement activity, evacuate all settlers from occupied land and dismantle parts of the separation wall it constructed inside the occupied West Bank. Israel, which voted against the measure along with the US, has ignored the resolution. Britain abstained. This outcome for Ukraine's occupied territories is seen by some US negotiators as simply reflecting the reality of the war and the refusal by all other nations to become directly involved in fighting Russia. In this view, all that remains is to establish the exact boundaries of Russian occupation, which Putin is seeking to push as far as possible before his talks with Trump in Alaska. The scenario would reflect the world view expressed by Sebastian Gorka, Trump's senior director for counterterrorism, during an interview in May. 'We live in the real world. The Trump administration lives in the real world,' Gorka told Politico. 'We recognise the reality on the ground. Number one, that's the beginning because we're not utopianists and we're not human engineers. We're not some kind of pie in the sky believers in utopia. 'We recognise the reality on the ground and we have one priority above all else, whether it's the Middle East or whether it's Ukraine. It's to stop the bloodshed. Everything else comes after the bloodshed has been halted.' Israeli troops captured the West Bank — land between Israel and the River Jordan — from Jordanian forces during the 1967 Six Day War, putting millions of its Palestinian residents under Israeli control. JAAFAR ASHTIYEH/AFP/GETTY IMAGES AMAER SHALLODI/GETTY IMAGES Today it maintains overall control of the territory, although since the 1990s a Palestinian government known as the Palestinian Authority has run most of its towns and cities. Palestinians are subject to Israeli military checkpoints and patrols, and are required to obtain permits from Israel to travel between the West Bank and other Palestinian territories in Gaza and East Jerusalem. • The occupation has been widely criticised for land seizures and the establishment of more than 150 settlements in breach of a UN security council resolution and international law. Israel has also imposed a two-tier system of citizenship: Israeli civilians living or passing through the West Bank are subject to Israeli law while Palestinian civilians are subject to martial law and cannot vote in Israel's national elections.
