CCTV Script 12/08/2025

CNBC

18 hours ago

On Monday, local time, U.S. President Trump nominated E.J. Antoni, Chief Economist of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, to serve as the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This move comes shortly after Trump criticized the unfavorable U.S. employment data as being manipulated and subsequently dismissed the previous commissioner. The market has been closely watching who would take over the position and whether this change would impact the statistical reporting of U.S. economic data.
Antoni's appointment still requires confirmation by the U.S. Senate before he can officially assume the role. He has long been a critic of the BLS, advocating for a comprehensive, top-to-bottom review of the bureau.
Prior to Trump's public criticism and the dismissal of the previous commissioner, the BLS had been a relatively low-profile agency, rarely entering the public eye. It operates under the U.S. Department of Labor but maintains a degree of independence. The BLS is responsible for collecting crucial data on employment, inflation, and wages, which serve as vital references for business and policy decisions, emphasizing the importance of being free from political interference.
In addition to the change in leadership, the BLS is also facing challenges and controversies due to budget cuts. Some analysts have noted that due to insufficient staffing, the BLS has ceased collecting inflation data in certain cities, relying more on estimation methods.
Recently, concerns about the credibility of the BLS economic data have also begun to emerge on Wall Street. This raises questions about the potential impact of these changes on the accuracy and reliability of the data that businesses and policymakers depend on.
Prominent figures, including Jeffrey Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," and Michael Gapen, an economist at Morgan Stanley, have expressed concerns that U.S. economic data has become unreliable. They argue that this could lead to skepticism about the quality of data released by U.S. government agencies.
Currently, the market is closely watching the upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, scheduled for Tuesday local time. This inflation report is expected to provide critical insights into the state of the economy.
Analysts point out that concerns over inflation data performance led to a decline in the three major U.S. stock indices overnight.
Market forecasts suggest that the July CPI will show a monthly increase of 0.2% and a yearly increase of 2.8%. When excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% monthly and 3.1% yearly.
The market is also hoping to glean signals from the latest inflation data regarding the Federal Reserve's potential rate-cut path. However, Wall Street remains divided on the timing of rate cuts.
One camp believes the Fed will cut rates as early as September, arguing that such a move is overdue. This divergence in expectations highlights the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and its impact on the economy.
'I think the rate right now is modestly restrictive...not because rates are lower, therefore stocks must go higher, but the damage that perhaps modestly restrictive rates are doing to the economy and eventually corporate profits would be reduced."
However, another camp believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to wait and see, monitoring the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any decisions.
"We don't think it'd be September, so the Fed will take this time. Powell, if he doesn't have too much pressure, will continue at his path, which we believe is the case, and we'll likely see the Fed act in December and then aggressively act next year. "
Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both predict that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year, while JP Morgan Chase anticipates three rate cuts in 2025.