Luxury heavyweights struggle to shake off shopper fatigue
PARIS (Reuters) -LVMH and Kering are expected to report another drop in quarterly sales, deepening investor worries about a prolonged downturn in the $400 billion luxury market as brands face the threat of hefty U.S. import tariffs.
The results, kicking off with LVMH on Thursday, will likely show that any revival in demand for pricey fashion in the key U.S. and Chinese markets remains elusive.
Uncertainty unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war has caused volatility in stock markets, weighing on consumer confidence.
Trump's threat of 30% tariffs on imported EU goods risks hurting luxury houses that make products in France and Italy. They will be wary of lifting prices for U.S. consumers after signs that previous rounds of price hikes slowed demand.
"The level of price increases has been too much" at a number of brands, alienating the "aspirational" middle-income shoppers, said Caroline Reyl, head of premium brands at Pictet Asset Management.
LVMH's fashion and leather goods division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior, is expected to show sales down 6% year-on-year, its fourth consecutive quarterly decline, according to a Visible Alpha consensus forecast.
Gucci, Kering's main earner which is undergoing an overhaul, has struggled for twice as long and is seen reporting sales down nearly a quarter from a year earlier.
After two years of slowing sales, unease about the health of the industry is growing, with customers balking at higher price tags.
Shares of LVMH are down nearly 27% since the start of this year, while shares of Kering are down 15%. Shares of Hermes and Richemont, which cater to mostly wealthy clients, were little changed, with the former down 0.9% and the latter up 1.6% over the same period.
LVMH, Europe's most valuable listed company as recently as January, has slipped to fifth place.
"It seems that investors are starting to worry about the long-term structural attractiveness of the industry," UBS analysts said last week.
Sales of handbags - previously a growth engine - have been weak as shoppers opt for timeless, investment-grade jewellery.
Brands including Dior, Gucci and Chanel have recruited new designers, but it takes time for fresh styles to enter stores.
LOWER-PRICED PRODUCTS
Brands like Louis Vuitton and Prada are offering more products below $1,000, like a new hybrid ballerina-sneaker shoe, for example, and emphasising beauty products, said Bain consultants.
But that carries risks.
"The aspirational skew of the brand is unhelpful currently," said HSBC analysts, highlighting problems at Louis Vuitton. "Some inconsistencies, we feel, are likely starting to have consumers wonder."
Consensus forecasts peg organic sales of LVMH down 3%, while Kering is seen down 13%; Hermes and Prada are expected to show a 10% rise, as Prada's Miu Miu label takes market share from rivals.
Kering will report its results on July 29, while Hermes and Prada are due to report on July 30.
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Trump tariffs live updates: Japan says $550 billion 'investment' in US could finance Taiwanese chipmaker; Trump says EU deal '50-50'
President Trump last week touted a $550 billion investment in the US that Japan made as part of trade negotiations "to lower their tariffs a little bit," as he described it. On Saturday, Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa suggested the money could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, Reuters reported. Akazawa did not name a specific Taiwanese company, but in March, Taiwan's TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in the US, on top of plans to build three plants in Arizona, one of which is already operating. "For example, if a Taiwanese chipmaker builds a plant in the U.S. and uses Japanese components or tailors its products to meet Japanese needs, that's fine too," he said. Trump announced the deal on Tuesday, which includes a 15% tariff on imported goods along with the $550 billion Japanese investment. However, the sides do not seem aligned on profit sharing, with Japan seeking a split based on contributions, while the US says it would keep 90%. EU trade deal possible On Friday, Trump put the odds of a trade deal with the European Union at "50-50," even as negotiators from both sides have expressed optimism about reaching a deal before the Aug. 1 deadline. "I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU," Trump told reporters before departing on a trip to his golf course in Scotland. European Commission President is set to meet Trump in Scotland this weekend in a bid to secure a deal. Trump also said that letters dictating tariff rates for over 200 countries would go out soon while his administration works to clinch deals with larger trade partners, including the EU, India, and Canada. Trump said the US hasn't had a "lot of luck" with Canada and suggested he may impose threatened 35% levies on goods not covered by the US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. The US and China have the "confines of a deal" as the two sides prepare to meet next week, Trump also said. In any case, the Japan trade deal may have set a precedent for Trump's new baseline tariff rate. As the US finalized the deal with Japan and advanced talks with the EU, Trump said tariffs would range from 15% to 50%, with tougher partners facing higher rates. Trump's April "Liberation Day" tariffs had set a baseline rate of 10% on all US trading partners. Earlier this week, Trump also said the US had also struck a trade deal with the Philippines, which will see the country's imports face a 19% tariff into the US. The White House also unveiled new details of a confirmed trade agreement with Indonesia. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reported that a 19% tariff will apply to Indonesian goods. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Japan says $550 billion investment could finance Taiwanese chipmaker in US The $550 billion President Trump said Japan gave to the US "to lower their tariffs a little bit," could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Trump on Thursday called the $550 billion "seed money" and that 90% of profits from the money invested would go to the US. "It's not a loan or anything, it's a signing bonus," Trump said. Read more here More cracks form in the US-Japan trade agreement We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) some initial, if gentle, pushback from the Japanese side on the US portrayal of the countries' trade deal. The Financial Times has a good, detailed look at some of the "cracks" forming: Read more here (subscription required). EU head to meet with Trump this weekend in bid to clinch deal Bloomberg reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with President Trump this weekend as he travels to his golf club in Scotland in a bid to secure a trade deal. The meeting will come as the two sides race to secure a deal ahead of next Friday — Trump's self-imposed deadline for 30% tariffs on EU goods to kick in. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a deal at "50-50." From the report: Trump: 'We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada' President Trump on Friday expressed pessimism on US trade negotiations with Canada, suggesting he may simply impose threatened 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation," he said. More from Reuters: Boston Beer Company says strong profits helped brewer absorb tariff costs The Boston Beer Company (SAM) continues to feel the effects of President Trump's tariffs, but a strong quarter of sales and profit is helping the Samuel Adams brewer absorb some of those cost increases. Boston Beer expects tariffs to add about $15 million to $20 million in costs for the full year. Previously, it modeled tariff costs of $20 million to $30 million. Expect the company to raise prices by 1% to 2% to offset some of the costs as well, executives said. Boston Beer did see tariffs negatively affect its gross margin toward the end of the second quarter, but it benefited from improved brewery efficiencies. For the second quarter, the company reported profits of $5.45 per share on revenue of $625 million, versus estimates for earnings of $4.00 per share on $588 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Right now, I think we're very happy with the performance," Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane said on the earnings call. "Not only that, but that's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far." Some headlines from Trump on tariffs this morning Via Bloomberg: Trump: US will sell 'so much' beef to Australia President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. World's No. 3 automaker Kia takes $570M tariff hit in Q2 Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma shares dive after warning of full-year loss, US tariff impact Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. LG Energy Solution warns of slowing EV battery demand due to U.S. tariffs, policy headwinds Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Japan, US differ on how trade-deal profits will be split Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business activity rises; tariffs fuel inflation concerns US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. It sounds like Trump now has a new minimum tariff rate: 15% President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. Keurig Dr. Pepper brewer sales volume drops 22%, CEO says tariff impacts 'will become prominent' Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. The EU's Trump insurance As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). Europe approves $100B-plus tariff backup plan A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazil's citrus belt Reuters reports: Read more here. South Korea weighs US investment pledge to trim auto tariff Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Hyundai Motor warns of bigger hit from US tariffs after Q2 profit fall Hyundai Motor ( HYMTF) reported a drop in second-quarter operating profit on Thursday. The company cited US tariffs on vehicles and parts as the reason for the decline and that President Trump's trade war had weighed on its bottom line, the automaker also warned of a bigger impact in the current quarter. The group's South Korean shares fell 2% Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Trump lifts tariff baseline rate, warns countries face 15-50% range President Trump appears to have raised the minimum US tariff rate to 15%, up from 10%, as he prepares to set new reciprocal tariffs before his Aug. 1 deadline. 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' Trump's latest statement that tariffs would begin at 15% is a new twist in his efforts to impose duties on almost every US trading partner. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement this week of 15%, which could be one reason why the US president has decided to increase the baseline tariff rate. The European Union said on Wednesday that it is getting ready to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of US goods if no deal is made and if Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after the Aug. 1 deadline. Reports from The Financial Times on Wednesday have said that the EU and the US are now closing in on a 15% trade deal on European imports. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan says $550 billion investment could finance Taiwanese chipmaker in US The $550 billion President Trump said Japan gave to the US "to lower their tariffs a little bit," could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Trump on Thursday called the $550 billion "seed money" and that 90% of profits from the money invested would go to the US. "It's not a loan or anything, it's a signing bonus," Trump said. Read more here The $550 billion President Trump said Japan gave to the US "to lower their tariffs a little bit," could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Trump on Thursday called the $550 billion "seed money" and that 90% of profits from the money invested would go to the US. "It's not a loan or anything, it's a signing bonus," Trump said. Read more here More cracks form in the US-Japan trade agreement We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) some initial, if gentle, pushback from the Japanese side on the US portrayal of the countries' trade deal. The Financial Times has a good, detailed look at some of the "cracks" forming: Read more here (subscription required). We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) some initial, if gentle, pushback from the Japanese side on the US portrayal of the countries' trade deal. The Financial Times has a good, detailed look at some of the "cracks" forming: Read more here (subscription required). EU head to meet with Trump this weekend in bid to clinch deal Bloomberg reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with President Trump this weekend as he travels to his golf club in Scotland in a bid to secure a trade deal. The meeting will come as the two sides race to secure a deal ahead of next Friday — Trump's self-imposed deadline for 30% tariffs on EU goods to kick in. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a deal at "50-50." From the report: Bloomberg reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with President Trump this weekend as he travels to his golf club in Scotland in a bid to secure a trade deal. The meeting will come as the two sides race to secure a deal ahead of next Friday — Trump's self-imposed deadline for 30% tariffs on EU goods to kick in. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a deal at "50-50." From the report: Trump: 'We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada' President Trump on Friday expressed pessimism on US trade negotiations with Canada, suggesting he may simply impose threatened 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation," he said. More from Reuters: President Trump on Friday expressed pessimism on US trade negotiations with Canada, suggesting he may simply impose threatened 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation," he said. More from Reuters: Boston Beer Company says strong profits helped brewer absorb tariff costs The Boston Beer Company (SAM) continues to feel the effects of President Trump's tariffs, but a strong quarter of sales and profit is helping the Samuel Adams brewer absorb some of those cost increases. Boston Beer expects tariffs to add about $15 million to $20 million in costs for the full year. Previously, it modeled tariff costs of $20 million to $30 million. Expect the company to raise prices by 1% to 2% to offset some of the costs as well, executives said. Boston Beer did see tariffs negatively affect its gross margin toward the end of the second quarter, but it benefited from improved brewery efficiencies. For the second quarter, the company reported profits of $5.45 per share on revenue of $625 million, versus estimates for earnings of $4.00 per share on $588 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Right now, I think we're very happy with the performance," Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane said on the earnings call. "Not only that, but that's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far." The Boston Beer Company (SAM) continues to feel the effects of President Trump's tariffs, but a strong quarter of sales and profit is helping the Samuel Adams brewer absorb some of those cost increases. Boston Beer expects tariffs to add about $15 million to $20 million in costs for the full year. Previously, it modeled tariff costs of $20 million to $30 million. Expect the company to raise prices by 1% to 2% to offset some of the costs as well, executives said. Boston Beer did see tariffs negatively affect its gross margin toward the end of the second quarter, but it benefited from improved brewery efficiencies. For the second quarter, the company reported profits of $5.45 per share on revenue of $625 million, versus estimates for earnings of $4.00 per share on $588 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Right now, I think we're very happy with the performance," Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane said on the earnings call. "Not only that, but that's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far." Some headlines from Trump on tariffs this morning Via Bloomberg: Via Bloomberg: Trump: US will sell 'so much' beef to Australia President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. World's No. 3 automaker Kia takes $570M tariff hit in Q2 Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma shares dive after warning of full-year loss, US tariff impact Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. LG Energy Solution warns of slowing EV battery demand due to U.S. tariffs, policy headwinds Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Japan, US differ on how trade-deal profits will be split Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business activity rises; tariffs fuel inflation concerns US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. It sounds like Trump now has a new minimum tariff rate: 15% President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. Keurig Dr. Pepper brewer sales volume drops 22%, CEO says tariff impacts 'will become prominent' Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. The EU's Trump insurance As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). Europe approves $100B-plus tariff backup plan A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazil's citrus belt Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. South Korea weighs US investment pledge to trim auto tariff Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Hyundai Motor warns of bigger hit from US tariffs after Q2 profit fall Hyundai Motor ( HYMTF) reported a drop in second-quarter operating profit on Thursday. The company cited US tariffs on vehicles and parts as the reason for the decline and that President Trump's trade war had weighed on its bottom line, the automaker also warned of a bigger impact in the current quarter. The group's South Korean shares fell 2% Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Hyundai Motor ( HYMTF) reported a drop in second-quarter operating profit on Thursday. The company cited US tariffs on vehicles and parts as the reason for the decline and that President Trump's trade war had weighed on its bottom line, the automaker also warned of a bigger impact in the current quarter. The group's South Korean shares fell 2% Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. Trump lifts tariff baseline rate, warns countries face 15-50% range President Trump appears to have raised the minimum US tariff rate to 15%, up from 10%, as he prepares to set new reciprocal tariffs before his Aug. 1 deadline. 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' Trump's latest statement that tariffs would begin at 15% is a new twist in his efforts to impose duties on almost every US trading partner. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement this week of 15%, which could be one reason why the US president has decided to increase the baseline tariff rate. The European Union said on Wednesday that it is getting ready to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of US goods if no deal is made and if Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after the Aug. 1 deadline. Reports from The Financial Times on Wednesday have said that the EU and the US are now closing in on a 15% trade deal on European imports. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump appears to have raised the minimum US tariff rate to 15%, up from 10%, as he prepares to set new reciprocal tariffs before his Aug. 1 deadline. 'We'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,' Trump said Wednesday at an AI summit in Washington. 'A couple of — we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.' Trump's latest statement that tariffs would begin at 15% is a new twist in his efforts to impose duties on almost every US trading partner. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement this week of 15%, which could be one reason why the US president has decided to increase the baseline tariff rate. The European Union said on Wednesday that it is getting ready to impose 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of US goods if no deal is made and if Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after the Aug. 1 deadline. Reports from The Financial Times on Wednesday have said that the EU and the US are now closing in on a 15% trade deal on European imports. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here.
Bloomberg
26 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trump's 50%-Tariff in Brazil May Hit Major State's GDP by 2.7%
The Brazilian state of Sao Paulo is working on measures to mitigate the impact of potential 50% tariffs on exports to the US set to take effect on Aug. 1, Governor Tarcisio de Freitas said on Saturday. The duties could affect as many as 120,000 jobs in the region and shrink the state's economy by as much as 2.7%, Freitas said at an event organized by XP Inc in Sao Paulo.
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
More stock market records, more trade deals, more trade talks — plus, lots of earnings
The S & P 500 rose every day this past week as trade deals, both in the works and announced, lent support to the market. The index heads into the final stretch of a strong July at record highs. For the week, the S & P 500 gained nearly 1.5%. The Nasdaq did not go wire to wire in the green this week, but it did rise 1%, closing at another record high. Ahead of the last trading day of the month on Thursday, the S & P 500 was up almost 3% for July, while the Nasdaq jumped 3.6%. The best session of the week came on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced the night before what he called a "massive" trade agreement with Japan ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. The deal settled on a 15% tariff on goods entering the United States from Japan, including automobiles. In exchange, Japan will invest $550 billion in America and open its market to more imports from the U.S. The trade focus now shifts to China and the European Union. Next week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Stockholm for talks with Chinese officials about extending the negotiating window for a trade deal. Regarding the EU, Trump said Friday he sees only a "50-50 chance" of a deal with the trading bloc. The president plans to meet with EU officials in Scotland on Sunday. .SPX .IXIC 5D mountain S & P 500 and Nasdaq 5-day performance The other big news of this past week was Trump's trip to the Federal Reserve on Thursday. He toured the central bank renovation site with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. They spoke with reporters and had an uncomfortable moment over renovation costs. Trump signaled that he's no longer considering firing Powell. The president told reporters Friday that Powell and he had a "good meeting" about interest rates, and he believes the Fed will start cutting them. Powell has kept rates steady since December 2024, saying central bankers need more time to see how finalized tariffs will impact inflation. On the economy, the June existing home sales report was released on Wednesday, followed by June new home sales on Thursday. While sales of both were slower than expected, the reports diverged when it came to prices. The median price of a previously owned home sold in June was $435,300, up year over year and the 24th consecutive month of annual increases, according to the National Association of Realtors. However, government data showed the median sales price of new homes sold last month was $401,800 — below May and below year-ago levels. Watching housing price trends is important because it can give us signals on where shelter costs might be headed, which have been a key factor keeping overall inflation elevated. Second quarter earnings season has kicked into full gear, with results thus far coming in better than expected. According to FactSet, a third of the S & P 500 companies have already reported, with 80% of those delivering upside surprises to both sales and earnings expectations. Within the Club portfolio, we heard from Danaher, GE Vernova, Capital One, Honeywell, and Dover. Talk about a blowout. GE Vernova came into the quarterly print near all-time highs, setting a high bar of expectations, which it easily hopped over. The stock was rewarded with record highs and was our top performer of the week, with 12% gains. Shares have nearly doubled in 2025 versus the S & P 500's 8.6% advance this year. GE Vernova on Wednesday reported strong order growth and robust EBITDA margin expansion. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Strong backlog growth also gives us confidence that end market demand remains healthy. "This era of accelerated electrification is driving unprecedented investments in reliable power, grid infrastructure, and decarbonization solutions," CEO Scott Strazik said on the post-earnings call. Danaher on Tuesday delivered a strong set of results, albeit against relatively low expectations. The company did outpace expectations on the top and bottom lines, thanks to strength in all key operating segments. While Chinese sales in biotechnology and life sciences grew, the positive numbers were overshadowed by sustained weakness in diagnostics due to the countries volume-based procurement program. The quarter was enough to spark a relief rally and keep us in the name. Danaher was our second-best performer this week, rising 8%. Despite a good week, the stock was still down 10.5% year to date. Capital One delivered a noisy quarter on Tuesday due to the Discover integration. While shares were among our losers this week, down 2.5%, they have been on a roll, up more than 19% year to date. We saw enough the quarter to reaffirm our view that there will be some serious long-term benefits resulting from the acquisition and its payment network. Capital One is one of only two banks in the world with their own credit card network, the other being American Express. We will look for the company to leverage that edge into earnings growth and for the stock to be rewarded for it with a higher multiple as the integration progresses and management executes on their game plan. We were surprised by Thursday's more than 4% stock drop on Dover 's earnings. In addition to a top and bottom-line beat, the company reported a record adjusted segment EBITDA margin, an acceleration in bookings that provides visibility into the future. It also outlined several growth and productivity investments to support long-term growth. Compounding the strong results, management raised its full-year outlook on both revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share. For the week, Dover lost about 1%. Like Dover, Honeywell stock was also dinged after it reported Thursday morning, despite the results coming in largely better than expected. Shares were our worst performer of the week, down 5.2%. While there was some weakness in aerospace and in segment margin performance, we were satisfied with the explanation provided by management on the call and believe the weakness provides a buying opportunity ahead of what we think will be a value-creating breakup into three separate operating companies. The split will start in the fourth quarter of this year, when management spins off the advanced materials business, and continue in 2026 with the separation of aerospace, which will leave the automation business as the third public company. In the week ahead, we will get seven more Club name earnings, including Amazon , Apple , Meta Platforms , and Microsoft . (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
