ETMarkets Smart Talk: Sell in May? FIIs might pause, but earnings will steer market: Hemant Kanawala
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Hemant Kanawala, Head – Equities at Kotak Life Insurance, shares his insights on the recent market volatility triggered by global tariff concerns and rising geopolitical tensions.While foreign investors (FIIs) have turned cautious, Kanawala believes the trajectory of corporate earnings will play a decisive role in determining the market's direction.He discusses the impact of potential US tariffs on the pharma sector, the benefits of falling crude oil prices for India, and why a disciplined investment approach is crucial in a sideways market.With Nifty likely to consolidate between 22,000 and 25,000, Kanawala emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and long-term perspective amidst short-term noise. Edited Excerpts – India-Pakistan tensions . What is your take on markets?A) We believe that the market will consolidate in the range of 22,000 to 25,000 as it navigates through uncertainties with regards to tariffs, geopolitics and earnings.Concerns regarding these will cap the upside in the near term. On the lower side, at 22,000, valuations are closer to the long-term average and hence limit the downside.A) The US President has not yet announced tariffs on the pharma sector, as healthcare is a politically sensitive subject and a large component of the US economy in terms of expense.However, he has reiterated that tariffs on the pharma sector will be announced soon. This uncertainty has led to a correction in pharma stocks. sell in May & go away'?A) It is difficult to predict the near-term direction of the market amid the uncertainties mentioned above. Investors will focus on the trajectory post-current earnings season.If the earnings outlook is stable, then the current positive sentiment towards India can continue.A) Prices are lower as the demand outlook is weak, and OPEC has increased supply. Lower crude oil prices help India in terms of lower current account deficit and inflation.It also improves the government's ability to support the economy through fiscal and monetary measures.A) As GDP growth remains in the range of 6%, inflation is below 4% and the margin outlook is stable, earnings are likely to grow at the high single digit to low double-digit in the near term.As the global trade scenario stabilises and the Indian economy accelerates, earnings growth can improve.A) Investors should decide on asset allocation based on their risk appetite and avoid creating large deviations from it.Volatility is part of the investment process, but experience suggests that a disciplined approach to investing helps in achieving investment goals.A) Ideal asset allocation is always individual specific and will be based on their risk appetite.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hindustan Times
22 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
How India's demographic profile has changed over last 8 decades
Independent India turns 78 today with an estimated 1.46 billion population compared to just 346 million in 1950. To be sure, it's not just the number of Indians which has changed in the last almost eight decades. The demographic profile of Indians has also changed significantly. Here is how. How India's demographic profile has changed over last 8 decades The median age of an Indian is nine years higher than in 1950 The median age of India's population is estimated at 20 years in 1950 (the earliest estimate from UN's World Population Prospects report) and is 29 years in 2025. In fact, there's more to the change in India's demographics than just ageing. In 1950, each five-year age group had a lower share in population than the preceding five-year group. In other words, children under the age of five were the most populous five-year age group. In 2025, the 20-24 age group is the most populous. It is because of this shift towards the middle that India is said to possess a demographic dividend, where the share of the working-age population is much higher than the children and elderly, both of whom need care. But there are certain dynamics at play here. India's dependency ratio has fallen despite a rising population share of elderly The dependency ratio, which is defined as the population outside the 15-64 age group as a percentage of the 15-64 population, has decreased from 70% in 1950 to 46% in 2025. However, this decline is completely on account of children. The 65 years and older population is now 11% of the 15-64 age group compared to 5% in 1950. How will these trends change in the future? With declining fertility, the ageing of the population is expected to continue. The largest age-group in 2050, for example, is expected to be the 45-49 age group. As expected from this ageing, the dependent population will shift further towards the 65 and older group. This is expected to increase the dependency ratio from 46% in 2025 to 48% in 2050, with slightly less than half of that dependent population coming from the 65 and older group. This is what makes the period from now till 101st Independence Day in 2047 crucial for India's economic fortunes. This demographic sweet spot will not come back. To be sure, despite peaking in absolute terms in 2049, India's working age population will fall below the 2025 number only in 2082.
Time of India
22 minutes ago
- Time of India
DSK Legal enters UAE with Dubai, ADGM offices to strengthen India–MENA corridor play
DSK Legal is expanding its presence in the India-UAE business corridor by opening offices in Dubai and Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). This strategic move aims to serve Indian companies operating in the Gulf and global clients seeking opportunities in India. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Full-service law firm DSK Legal has received regulatory clearance to open offices in Dubai and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), in a move aimed at expanding its footprint across the India–UAE business corridor and the wider Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) move will allow the Mumbai-headquartered firm to serve Indian companies with operations in the Gulf as well as global clients seeking to enter or expand in India, DSK said in a statement. The practice areas will cover projects, real estate, technology, energy, financial services, sports, media and international arbitration.'There has been a clear and growing interest from our clients and other Indian businesses to establish or expand their footprint in the UAE across several sectors,' said Anand Desai, managing partner at DSK Legal. 'With the establishment of our offices in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, we are well-positioned to support Indian companies with operations in the UAE, as well as foreign clients with interests in India.'The offices come as India and the UAE deepen trade and investment ties, following a 2022 free trade agreement that has boosted bilateral Kumar, a legal veteran with nearly 20 years in the UAE and Africa, will be resident partner, while former Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh High Court chief justice Ali Mohammad Magrey will act as senior this expansion, DSK Legal becomes one of the few Indian law firms to establish a direct presence in two leading global financial and legal hubs of West in 2001, DSK Legal operates from offices in New Delhi, Bengaluru and Pune apart from Mumbai and has grown into a multi-disciplinary practice with over 300 professionals, including 60 partners and associate partners.
Time of India
25 minutes ago
- Time of India
IMEC is long-term project built on a shared vision of diversifying supply chains: Gérard Mestrallet
The IMEC corridor is a long-term project built on a shared vision of diversifying supply chains between three regions while creating new mutually beneficial interdependencies, and generating growth and socio-economic development along its route. France and India's cooperation on IMEC is rooted in their strong strategic partnership. This bilateral dialogue feeds directly into the project's strategic vision, French Special Envoy on IMEC Gérard Mestrallet told ET's Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury during his recent India visit. Independence Day 2025 Before Trump, British used tariffs to kill Indian textile Bank of Azad Hind: When Netaji gave India its own currency Swadeshi 2.0: India is no longer just a market, it's a maker What is the French view on IMEC amid volatility in West Asia? The IMEC corridor is a long-term project built on a shared vision of diversifying supply chains between three regions while creating new mutually beneficial interdependencies, and generating growth and socio-economic development along its route. My two main priorities have been to structure collective governance among IMEC MoU signatories, and launch diagnostic and feasibility studies — an essential step to assess investment needs. Following this preliminary phase, a precise development plan will be defined, with the private sector playing a central role. Many infrastructure and investment projects already exist along the IMEC route. The challenge is to accelerate capacity development or build the missing links, particularly for the rail segment in the Middle East. What are the distinct advantages of the Port of Marseille as an entry point for IMEC? The port of Marseille is already a multidimensional connectivity hub and a gateway to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. The port of Marseille Fos is now set to become one of the main entry and exit points for IMEC in Europe and the Mediterranean. With that being said, the IMEC concept does not exclude the possibility of there being several interconnection points in the regions served. Marseille Fos stands out as a triple hub: logistics and industry, shipping, and digital services. Marseille is already at the crossroads of several European corridors, forming part of two trans-European transport networks and the H2med network via the BarMar link. Further, Marseille is the sixth largest digital hub in the world. By 2027, the city will be connected to 54 countries via 16 submarine cable networks, with six cables scheduled to become operational between 2025 and 2027. In terms of energy, Marseille Fos port has major ambitions in the carbon-free hydrogen sector. It is also home to the headquarters of CMA CGM, a global maritime leader, which is also investing in one of the Mundra Port terminals. How is France collaborating with India to implement IMEC? France and India's cooperation on IMEC is rooted in their strong strategic partnership. This bilateral dialogue feeds directly into the project's strategic vision. While IMEC requires consultation between all signatory countries, some may naturally be more proactive than others. I believe that this is an ambition shared by India and France – as illustrated by France organizing the inaugural IMEC Sherpas meeting in May 2025, and India convening the first IMEC Steering Committee meeting in early August in New Delhi. The year 2026, designated as the India-France Year of Innovation, will offer further opportunities to advance this approach and explore solutions to key challenges in digital connectivity, which is one of the pillars of IMEC alongside logistics and energy connectivity.
