Strong start for earnings season creates support for Wall Street's record highs
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CNBC
24 minutes ago
- CNBC
Wall Street barrels toward a big week: Fed meeting, Mag 7 earnings, jobs report, trade deadline
So long, summer doldrums. A stock market at all-time highs could be shaken up in a big way next week. Federal Reserve policymakers are convening for their July meeting at a time when central bank independence is in question. More of the Magnificent Seven companies are set to report and answer critical questions about artificial intelligence spending. Major economic data around jobs and inflation are on deck, and a key August trade deadline looms. That chain of calendar events has the potential to rock a market that's so far enjoyed a summer respite, with the S & P 500 on pace by week's end to close at a new all-time high every day this week. Volatility has been muted all month, despite dramatic economic and political headlines. This week, the S & P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time ever. On Monday, the Magnificent Seven stocks posted their longest advance since 2023. Next week has the potential to upset the apple cart, however. "What isn't happening in this week? That is what I want to know," said Kim Forrest, founder at Bokeh Capital. Whether the rally continues could very well rest on what unfolds in the coming week. There are already faint signs of the rally running out of steam. Opendoor Technologies, an online real estate stock that was touted by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, enjoyed a meteoric surge Monday on speculative fervor, before fizzling Tuesday — a telling signal. Skeptics are out there. BTIG's chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky, for example, said this week that the last time the Nasdaq-100 index went 60 straight days without closing below its 20-day moving average, a short-term trend indicator, was in 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst. That technical setup, plus the start of a seasonally weak period for stocks, coupled with all manner of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary headwinds, makes for a tenuous setup heading into August. "The main takeaway is that we may encounter some turbulence, even though it's unlikely to mark a major peak," BTIG's Krinsky wrote. Fed meeting Wall Street's focus on next week's meeting of the Federal Reserve, the last until September, and the status of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is likely to be more heated than usual after President Donald Trump's latest threats against the Fed chief and their joint tour Thursday of the Fed's Washington headquarters construction project. Trump appeared to tone down his fiercest rhetoric against Powell this week, saying the Fed chair is "going to be out pretty soon anyway." But Powell is certain to be grilled by reporters on the future independence of the central bank during the question-and-answer portion of his post-meeting press conference next Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is almost universally expected to hold its benchmark borrowing rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.50% at the conclusion of next week's two-day policy meeting, according to interest rate futures traded at the CME Group . Magnificent Seven AI spending The stock market's trajectory will also depend on the Magnificent Seven companies, four of which report their latest financial results next week: Meta Platforms and Microsoft are out on Wednesday, while Amazon and Apple release their quarterly numbers on Thursday. What the companies say about AI spending will be critical for the market. Much of the stock market's rise this year can be attributed to the torrent of capital spending from the companies known as hyperscalers, which is supposed to top $350 billion in 2025. But with the possible profits from AI still unknown, questions remain on whether the investments can be justifed. Investors will want to hear clear strategies from the hyperscalers . Meta Platforms recently raised eyebrows when it went on a spending spree, including the hiring of key AI experts such as Alexandr Wang from Scale AI as part of a $14 billion deal. Investors will also want to know more about Azure, the linchpin to Microsoft's AI ambitions. Growth in Amazon's cloud business will also be a center of attention. Jobs report, inflation data Next Friday's jobs report will come after few if any signs of cracks in the labor market from Trump's tariffs. Still, the July nonfarm payrolls report will likely show a deceleration. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to show inflation rising, to 2.4% from 2.3% on an annual basis, and to 0.31% from 0.14% on a monthly basis, according to FactSet. Aug. 1 trade deadline Finally, Wall Street is still wading through Trump's erratic trade policies. Many expect that the Friday Aug. 1 deadline to raise tariffs, which Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick this week called a "hard deadline," will nevertheless remain flexible as the White House continues to negotiate . Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, July 28 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index Earnings: Waste Management, Universal Health Services, Nucor, Cincinnati Financial Tuesday, July 29 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (June) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (May) 9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (May) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (July) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June) Earnings: Seagate Technology, Starbucks, Mondelez International, Electronic Arts, Booking Holdings, Visa, Republic Services, PPG Industries, Caesars Entertainment, Sysco, Norfolk Southern, Hubbell, Corning, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Group, Merck & Co., United Parcel Service, Stanley Black & Decker, UnitedHealth Group, PayPal Holdings, Procter & Gamble, Ecolab, Boeing Wednesday, July 30 10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (June) 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting 2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: MGM Resorts International, Lam Research, Ford Motor, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Qualcomm, Align Technology, Western Digital, Tyler Technologies, Public Storage, Prudential Financial, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Invitation Homes, F5, FirstEnergy, Extra Space Storage, DexCom, AvalonBay Communities, Albemarle, Hess, Altria Group, Hershey, Humana, Old Dominion Freight Line, Kraft Heinz, Generac Holdings, GE Healthcare Technologies, Automatic Data Processing, Allstate Thursday, July 31 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/19) 8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (07/26) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (June) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (June) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (June) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (June) Earnings: Apple, Clorox, Amazon, KLA, Edison International, Monolithic Power Systems, Ingersoll Rand, First Solar, Coinbase Global, Kellanova, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Howmet Aerospace, Vulcan Materials, Comcast, Bristol Myers Squibb, Quanta Services, KKR & Co., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, CVS Health, CMS Energy, Cigna Group, PG & E, Air Products & Chemicals, Mastercard, International Paper, Biogen, AbbVie Friday, Aug. 1 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (July) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (July) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (July) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (June) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July) 10:00 a.m Michigan Sentiment final (July) Earnings: T. Rowe Price Group, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Moderna, Kimberly-Clark, Chevron — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Yun Li and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.
CNBC
25 minutes ago
- CNBC
What the prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead
The coming week poses a critical test for the stock market's record-setting run with a number of make-or-break events — the Federal Reserve 's rate decision, July jobs report and President Donald Trump's tariffs deadline. Popular wagers on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket offer an alternative view into how the mainstream thinks things will unfold next week. These markets became established in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election and have been widely used by investors and even Wall Street strategists to gauge the consensus crowd view of a certain event. The S & P 500 has rebounded more than 30% off its low on April 7, reaching consecutive record highs this week after the benchmark closed above 6,300 for the first time. Investors have cheered resilient economic growth and corporate profits even in the face of higher tariffs. Still, next week marks a wild card that could easily derail the bull run. Fed meeting Consistent with the pricing in the futures markets, prediction platform Kalshi is assigning virtually no chance for a rate cut when the Fed meets next week. But the prediction markets do anticipate some drama during the Fed meeting with Powell perhaps losing his grip on the consensus of his peers. Kalshi is pricing in a 82% chance of a dissenting vote against a no-cut decision. Notably, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have said they would favor a rate cut in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted. So they could be the two that emerge. Fed Chairman Powell and his fellow policymakers have been reluctant to lower rates as they wait to see the impact that Trump's tariffs have on inflation. Powell has also argued that the economy is strong enough that it can withstand higher rates as officials watch how the data evolves. Powell is likely to address the dramatic meeting with Trump this week about the Fed's building renovation during his press conference following the decision. Traders on the prediction markets are also placing bets on random words that may be uttered by the Fed chief. These words include "credit," "projection" and "median." Jobs report July jobs report next Friday will offer a fresh look at the health of the labor market that has been resilient in the face of Trump's tariffs. Kalshi traders expect a solid jobs report in the Goldilocks range. Kalshi is pricing in a 79% chance that the payroll number will be higher than 100,000, but just an 18% chance that it will be higher than 150,000. The jobless rate has been assigned a 55% likelihood to be above 4.1%. For context, economists polled by FactSet expect that the U.S. economy will have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% previously. Aug. 1 tariff deadline The world is bracing for more erratic trade headlines as the Aug. 1 deadline approaches. Trump said Friday there is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. would reach a trade agreement with the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X later Friday that she and Trump have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade. The EU is preparing countermeasures in case of a no-deal scenario . The prediction market is pricing in a 53% likelihood of a deal with the EU. As for China, which faces an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a deal, Polymarket assigns an 83% chance that the two countries will come to an agreement.
The Verge
25 minutes ago
- The Verge
Comcast's fix for streaming service overload is in your cable box
Streaming has become a tangled web of subscriptions, and now Comcast says it can help by putting all your services into one hub. Comcast is launching a new hub on its set-top boxes, called the StreamStore, where you can buy and manage subscriptions for more than 450 streaming apps and channels. The StreamStore lives within Xfinity's Xumo Stream Box and on X1 devices. It's also available on the web, and features a collection of more than 200,000 movies and TV shows to rent or purchase. Xfinity will let you add or drop channels through the store, while tacking on new subscriptions to your monthly internet or TV bill, further positioning the company as a sort of streaming broker. Other cable / telecom companies like Verizon have tried to step in as a digital subscription service middleman, though Comcast is taking things a step further by putting this hub on your TV. But is streaming really messy enough that you need Comcast to manage it? Some services included in the StreamStore include Netflix, Peacock, Disney Plus, Paramount Plus, Hulu, Apple TV Plus, HBO Max, and over 100 'niche' streaming subscriptions, according to LightReading. Xfinity already offers its own StreamSaver bundle, which includes a subscription to Apple TV Plus, Netflix with ads, and Peacock's ad-supported plan for $15 per month. The bundle is, of course, available through the StreamStore, and Xfinity says it plans on bringing new streaming bundles, apps, and 'enhanced subscription management and activation capabilities' to the hub in the future. (Disclosure: Comcast is an investor in Vox Media, The Verge's parent company.) Posts from this author will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. See All by Emma Roth Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. See All Comcast Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. See All Entertainment Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. See All News Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. See All Streaming Posts from this topic will be added to your daily email digest and your homepage feed. See All Tech
