2025 NFL betting: Three Week 1 bets to make right now
In the past, I would have been hesitant to place bets on the Week 1 market before the preseason began, but I feel very differently now. In recent years, the NFL has reduced the preseason by one game, and teams have responded by largely sitting key players to avoid unnecessary injury risk. This creates a unique edge: betting Week 1 early is now even more advantageous, as we can target teams with asymmetric approaches to the preseason and aim to beat the closing lines.
We're also in a quiet period on the sports calendar, so tying up a portion of your bankroll now is totally reasonable.
With that in mind, here are three NFL Week 1 bets I recommend placing immediately (odds from BetMGM).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 44.5) at Cleveland Browns
This bet targets asymmetric injury risk. Joe Burrow is entering his fifth year in the NFL. Guess how many career preseason completions he has? Just two.
Due to the Bengals slow starts the last few seasons, Burrow has said he wants to play more this preseason to feel some of the game speed. However, his risk of injury remains incredibly low. He rarely scrambles outside the pocket, doesn't take big hits in practice and is unlikely to see meaningful preseason pressure. I expect Burrow to play about five drives throughout the first two preseason weeks and be seated for the final game.
On the other side, Browns reporter Mary Kay Cabot has stated the starting quarterback likely won't be named until before the team's third and final preseason game. The competition will continue throughout camp between veteran Joe Flacco, journeyman Kenny Pickett, and two rookies the Browns just drafted: Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
The Bengals also likely have an internal emphasis on starting the season strong. Last year, they dropped Week 1 to the lowly New England Patriots, and their 1-4 start played a major role in missing the playoffs. The Bengals have not won their Week 1 game since 2021.
I expect the Bengals to be one of the most popular picks in NFL Survivor Contests this season, and I think the moneyline gets home here. They're currently consensus favorites at -5.5, and I'm also comfortable laying the points. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line close at -6 or higher, making -5.5 a very strong early position.
Note: If Trey Hendrickson re-signs soon, that could move the number up another half-point to that key number of 6. We'll update this analysis as more news emerges.
Bets: Bengals -5.5, Bengals ML -250
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3, 42.5)
This handicap is primarily a market read, with an understanding of key numbers and common NFL outcomes, and a touch of football insight as well.
The total for this Week 1 game opened at 43.5 and is currently being bet down to a consensus 42. Some sharp offshore books are even showing 41.5. Grabbing an Under 42.5 at -110 now is likely to close ahead of the market and should be a positive expected value wager by kickoff.
For context, 41 is the third most common total outcome in the NFL over the past three seasons, so there's significant value in locking in a number above that if the line continues to drop.
From a football perspective, this will be the first game for both teams under new head coaches. Based on their prior tendencies, we know Pete Carroll favors a run-heavy offense, while Mike Vrabel brings a physical, defensive-minded approach paired with a second-year quarterback in Drake Maye. All signs point to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.
Bet: Under 42.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 43.5)
The first Monday Night Football game of the season features a divisional showdown as the Vikings travel to the Windy City to take on the Bears.
Minnesota has been a darling of the futures market, with action coming in across the board — from win totals to division bets to Super Bowl odds. One of the best ways to still find value on the Vikings might simply be playing the Week 1 market.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy had a year to develop behind Sam Darnold, who performed at an MVP-caliber level. Add in an elite offensive mind in former quarterback and reigning NFL Coach of the Year Kevin O'Connell, and a defense that could shape up to be one of the league's best this season, and the pieces are in place. There's also more continuity on Minnesota's sideline, including experience game-planning against Bears head coach Ben Johnson from his time in Detroit.
I also like the under in this matchup. Prime-time unders have been a strong early-season trend, and grabbing a good number here is critical. Over the last six seasons, prime-time games (Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football) have hit the under at a 60% rate, according to OddsShark data. And that's based on closing lines, not openers.
Snagging an under at 44.5 (still available at some books) is key due to how common final scores land on 44, 43, 41 and 40. There's asymmetric value here, as totals of 45 or 46 are less frequent outcomes.
Bets: Vikings ML +100, Under 44.5
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