Tabaqchali: Humongous Dividends Boost the Iraqi Market

Iraq Business

3 days ago

By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund.
Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News .
"Humongous Dividends Boost the Market"
The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), closed at an all-time high for May, with an increase of 0.7%, and is up 4.0% for the year. However, there is more to the Index's 0.7% increase than meets the eye due to the nature of the index's market value-weighted calculation that incorporates stock price changes, but not dividends, that negatively affected the index's monthly performance far more than in the prior years.
The culprits were two humongous dividend announcements of 14.5% and 11.5% by two of its ten components, the Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) and Asiacell Communications (TASC), respectively, with a 28.6% and 10.6% index weighting at the end of April. If these two dividends, as well as another component's 0.3% dividend, were incorporated in the index's calculations, then it would have been up 6.4% for the month.
Preceding TASC's and BBOB's dividend announcements, a few weeks earlier was the National Bank of Iraq (BNOI), another major component of the index with a 22.3% weighting at end of April, which declared a 4.9% per share cash dividend and a 30% share dividend. The combination was effectively equivalent to a 12.3% dividend yield. The two bank's oversized dividends follow from the outstanding earnings and book value growth enjoyed by the top banks in the country over the last two years, as reported here in "Banks End a Second Year with a Bang", in which the earnings two-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) was 203% for BNOI and 104% for BBOB (table below).
For TASC, its dividend increased by 50% year-over-year, from Iraqi Dinar (IQD) 1.0 to IQD 1.50 per share, with the dividend payout ratio increasing to 118% from 88%, reflecting the ongoing growth in the company's earnings over the last two years with a 22% CAGR (table below), and its cash generating model that resulted in the build-up of huge reserves over the last few years. The market, while expecting such a high dividend, nevertheless received it enthusiastically on the day the stock went ex-dividend. According to the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) trading regulations, the ISX sets the stock lower by the amount of the dividend payout on the ex-dividend date; in other words, it lowered the stock's price by IQD 1.50, yet this was completely reversed, on a high trading volume, with the stock ending at the same price that it was before it went ex-dividend.
As such, effectively rallying 13% versus the ISX's ex-dividend price adjustment. Promisingly, it increased by a further 3% again on high trading volumes by month's close, in the process reflecting the market's expectation for further strong earnings growth for the company, and continued high dividends.
Earnings and Book Values for Selected Companies
( Source: Rabee Securities, company reports, and AFC Research. Unaudited data as of end 2024* )
The backdrop to the strong growth enjoyed by the country's top companies, as reflected in declared dividends, stems from the relative stability that the country enjoyed over the last few years; that provided a stable and predictable macroeconomic framework for businesses and individuals to operate in and to plan for capital investments on a scale not seen in the prior decades of conflict. The stock market's upside potential in discounting these developments was the focus of a recent report, "Investing in Iraq, yet more gain to come" by Undervalued Shares "undervalued-shares.com", itself a second report on Iraq after the initial report four years ago, with the RSISX USD index increasing by 179% between the two reports, i.e. between June 2021 and May 2025.
The over-arching theme, as discussed in "What Next After Two Gangbuster Years?" is that both of the two key dynamics discussed here in the past -the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments- are in the early stages of their transformation of the Iraqi economy, a process that would unfold over the next few years, bringing with it high economic growth that would feed into higher corporate earnings, and ultimately higher stock market returns. Nonetheless, as discussed last month in "Market at an All-time High, Oil Prices Crashing, What Gives?", the negative effects of lower oil prices on the economy will become a headwind, reversing the positive tailwind of the past two years. Yet, the secular positives of the economic transformation should overcome the drag from the cyclical negatives and thus continue to drive the market's direction.
The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), having surpassed its 2014 peak by 11.1% by the end of May, has the potential to rally further reflecting the powerful dynamics discussed here over the last few months. However, risks remain given Iraq's recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, especially in the current uncertain global environment, as well as the risk that a widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region.
Notes:
* Using unaudited quarterly data, and earnings are net profit after tax.
IBSD's net profit for 2024 is arrived at after accounting for the company's tax rate.
Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format .
Mr Tabaqchali ( @AMTabaqchali ) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.