What could go wrong for Saquon Barkley as a top-3 fantasy pick

Yahoo

05-08-2025

Yahoo Fantasy analysts Matt Harmon and Scott Pianowski examine the potential risks of drafting the Eagles RB early including workload concerns, possible touchdown regression, and the 'Tush Push' effect. Hear the full conversation on the 'Yahoo Fantasy Forecast' podcast - and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.
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Video Transcript
Let's keep moving here because I think our 2nd overall pick is coming up here, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, he's the 2nd overall pick according to consensus Yahoo ADP, but actually, Scott, none of us, me, you, or Boone have him ranked as the 2nd overall player.
Boone and I have him ranked as the 3rd overall player behind the guy that we'll talk about next, Bijan Robinson, Robinson, but, uh, you have Saquon Barkley ranked as the 6th overall player, so you already kind of have these reasons in your head percolating about why Barkley, maybe won't fail but might be disappointing.
Talk about what can go wrong here for Barkley this season.
Yeah, there's two stats I really can't unsee.
The first one, everybody knows it, including the playoffs, 482 touches, which is just an enormous number, and we're talking about somebody who's headed into his 8th NFL season and had some injury problems, as many running backs do, although it seemed like no running backs other than McCaffrey got hurt last year, but 482 touches is an enormous number for a guy who's already deep into his career.
And last year, no one-yard touchdowns, and his average length of touchdown was 29.4 yards, which is just an unsustainable, unrepeatable, not gonna happen again number.
So, the touchdown bush survived.
They tried to get rid of it.
They couldn't get rid of it.
It's hard to kill.
It's a, you know, Bruce Willis diehard.
The touchdown bush is still here.
Jalen Hurts runs it well.
The Eagles, they, you know, they have the offensive line to do it.
They have that kind of, uh, nerve to keep running it, like, go ahead and stop it, you know, it's almost like an arrogance to them.
And why shouldn't they be?
They're really good at a play that is incredibly valuable to keeping the offense efficient and getting those touchdowns you need when you get in close.
So, I think Barkley's touchdown count is a little bit tenuous and his workload that he's coming off and where he is in his career.
I always want, the longer I play fantasy, the more I want to try younger, younger, younger.
And I, I get nervous taking these.
And I realized last year was a great year for older running backs.
And so many guys changed teams, went to better situations.
We saw Henry do that.
We saw Barkley do that.
We saw Jacobs do that, and they were all winners.
But I'm nervous to take a guy when I can take some of these players who haven't had their best season yet, like a Robinson, like a Gibbs, some of these guys who are younger, who are in good situations too.
There's no way I'm taking Barkley second overall.
And if he fails, it will be because the touchdowns came in way under expected, or that workload caught up to him.
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