There is scope for a 25-bps repo cut in 2025... RBI will look at data, aid growth, says SBI MD Rama Mohan Rao Amara
Surplus liquidity is a 'pleasant problem' for State Bank of India (SBI), Rama Mohan Rao Amara, MD, International Banking, Global Markets and Treasury, tells ET's Joel Rebello and Sangita Mehta. He oversees a ₹66-lakh-crore balance sheet at India's most-valued government lender as head of its treasury. SBI expects another quarter-point reduction in policy rate this calendar year, Amara said.He acknowledged that mobilising deposits is a tough task when depositors look for higher returns in a falling interest rate scenario, even as geopolitics, digital fraud and imported inflation remain key risks.
What are the practical challenges that banks face after the unexpected cuts in repo and CRR?
It is a pleasant problem to have from a situation of running into a deficit only a few months ago. A lot of credit goes to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that from a deficit, we have moved to a system-level surplus with ₹9 lakh crore of durable liquidity. Short term rates are plummeting after the cuts. The change in stance by the RBI (to neutral) was surprising, indicating long-term rates are here to stay and this has led to a steepening of the curve. For a long time, long-term yield was almost flat and in certain sections inverted. We expect the short term rates to still come down further, with the long term moving sideways. We expect the ten year to be in a broad range of 6.1% to 6.4% and the rupee to be in the ₹84 to ₹86 per dollar range.
How do you expect rate cuts to be transmitted to the broader loan books?
The transmission is still playing out. Year after year, loans linked to EBLR (External Benchmark Linked Lending Rate) have increased. The portfolio which is linked to MCLR (Marginal Cost Based Lending Rate) and other rates will slowly witness the transmission. So when transmission is complete, if inflation plays out as expected, the RBI may look at the data points and definitely there is further scope for a 25 basis point cut in repo this calendar year, and that is our house view also.
What could be the triggers for another cut?
Favourable factors like a normal monsoon-and certainty on the trade front. These are all triggers for them (RBI) to take a call. It gives them room or the manoeuvrability to aid the growth as well. I think the next decision on rate cut will be more data based. The front loading has given them enough time to observe how the system is behaving. So they will have the benefit of looking at the data, and of course, they will take measures to aid the growth.
With the banking system flush with liquidity, how low can deposit rates fall for banks to keep attracting customers?
It's been a challenge for the last few quarters. Every bank is prioritising deposit growth in face of competition from mutual funds or the insurance companies. Banks have to adopt a multi-pronged approach in improving customer engagement, creating innovative products which is possible thanks to technology advancement and use of AI-ML. You have to customise and even with a hyper personalisation where you make the right offer at the right time to a customer. That kind of hyper personalisation is possible thanks to technology advancement and use of AI-ML. You have to sweat all your channels, retail franchise, digital channel, or third party ecosystem. Individuals also will have a propensity to lock into the fixed deposit rates now anticipating a decline in the interest rates.With interest rates declining, corporates are shifting to bonds. How are banks protecting margins?We have an active treasury looking for opportunities. We have an active corporate investment book, though not comparable to the loan book growth. On margins, we are working on two fronts, wherever opportunities are there, we invest in the corporate investments short term, and also working on how to reduce deposit costs.
SBI has already announced QIP plans. Are there any fundraising plans through infra bonds or tier two bonds for this year? As on date, the total outstanding infrastructure bonds with SBI is ₹69,718 crore. We have a sizeable infra book to support infra bonds. But if we feel like that net of all the costs, that is a much cheaper option, we will go for it.
Last year, we saw a record dollar fund raise. Given the expected decline in the Fed rate and hedging costs, will corporates still be interested in dollar bonds? The difference between the dollar and rupee 10 year G sec has narrowed to 1.8% versus 3% a few quarters ago. Ample liquidity will incentivise corporates to tap the domestic market. For the ECB, without a natural hedge you are running into risks. But some NBFCs want to diversify their resource base, so they will be looking at ECB. But as on date, if you ask me, there is a more incentive for the corporates to tap into their domestic rupee because of ample liquidity.
The RBI's biggest concern is breakdowns of IT infrastructure by financial institutions. Given SBI's size, how are they navigating these risk and compliance challenges IT? Tech resilience definitely occupies our mind space even at the board level, whether we are doing enough. For a customer, the system should be available 24X7 without any disruption and reduced unscheduled downtime. It is complex, given the legacy systems and dependencies on various vendors and the fintechs. We have created a Resiliency Operation Centre to observe the behaviour of the systems, or hardware or servers, or behaviour of applications. The aim is to anticipate the problem much before it occurs. So it is more like a proactive observability of various systems which we work on.
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