PM Modi uses Trump backlash in India to bolster support before vote
A day after Trump stunned New Delhi by slapping 50% tariffs on the nation's exports to the US, Modi promised supporters he'd protect the interests of farmers, even if it means he pays a personal price for it. Modi's top aides, including his trade minister, have signaled India won't give in to US pressure to open up its agriculture and dairy markets to American imports. On Tuesday, leading farmer groups met with India's agriculture minister in New Delhi to pledge support to the government.
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Trump's about-turn on India in recent weeks — slamming the Asian nation for its trade barriers and ties with Russia — has shifted public sentiment against the US president and pushed Modi into defensive mode. Opposition parties and farmer groups have also repeatedly warned the government against offering the US excessive concessions to clinch a trade deal.
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'India's tone has changed quite dramatically. This is a smart political spin by Modi,' said Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard. 'The US is pushing for access to agriculture, and external forces trying to pry open the sector won't go down well with farmers,' she said. 'India can't be seen cowing down to a foreign power.'
All of this is playing out in the run up to a crucial election in the eastern state of Bihar, where nearly half the population work in farming and related sectors. Modi's
Bharatiya Janata Party
is reliant on its allies in the state to hold on to power, with some analysts seeing the election as a close contest.
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Modi's approval ratings have held steady in the face of Trump's actions, according to daily tracker data from polling agency C-Voter. About 46% of respondents surveyed on Aug. 1 were 'very much satisfied' with Modi as prime minister, compared with 45.8% on April 15.
'Modi has maintained momentum and edge, and the latest on Trump-US will only aid it,' said Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder and director C-Voter. 'There is no swing towards the opposition and I don't see electoral fortune shifting away from Modi.'
Past Protests
Farmers — one of the most influential voting blocs in the world's most populous nation — include millions of smallholders with less than two hectares (five acres) of land. They've proved powerful in the past in effecting political change. A year-long protest by hundreds of thousands of farmers forced Modi's government to repeal three contentious agricultural reform laws in late 2021.
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In a meeting with farmer groups on Tuesday, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan hailed the importance of the sector. An official statement that followed the meeting cited several farmer groups pledging their support to Modi's government.
'The courageous decision not to allow American companies into our agriculture and dairy sectors is echoing in every field, village, and cowshed,' Virendra Lohan of the Chhattisgarh Youth Progressive Farmers' Association said in the statement. 'You have shown that the Indian farmer is not just a food provider but the very soul of this nation, a soul no foreign power can ever control.'
Nalin Kohli, spokesperson for the ruling BJP, said India will continue to be driven by national priorities and 'at no cost can we cause any prejudice or risk to our farmers, agriculture and other similar sections of society.'
Domestic media have largely rallied behind the government's pushback against US pressure. Prominent commentators — and even some opposition figures — have called Trump a 'bully' in recent days. Meanwhile, Swadeshi Jagran Manch, a group linked to the BJP, is pushing Indians to boycott some American goods and food chains, like McDonald's, Reuters reported on Monday.
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In the sharpest rhetoric from Modi's officials, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said Sunday efforts to penalize India reflect unease with the country's rising global stature. Without naming anyone, he took a veiled swipe at the US president, saying someone who sees himself as 'everyone's boss' is rattled by India's rise.
Voter Controversy
The US tensions are also serving to shift attention away from recent scrutiny over a controversial revision of electoral rolls in Bihar that opposition leaders warned could disenfranchise millions from marginalized communities. Opposition groups led by the main Indian National Congress have accused the Election Commission of India of voter fraud and demanded an end to the exercise.
Lawmakers have repeatedly disrupted the current parliamentary session taking place in New Delhi, demanding a debate on the matter. On Monday, police prevented Rahul Gandhi, the main face of the Congress party, from leading a protest march to the commission's offices, briefly detaining some of the protesters.
Gandhi has called out Modi for his friendly ties with Trump, saying it was a misstep to align so early with a leader who's proved to be fickle. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge accused Modi of failing to do enough to cushion the impact on farmers, even though Trump had been threatening reciprocal tariffs for months.
Modi's strategy may hold for now, but analysts warn it could falter if economic pain from Trump's tariffs intensifies. Citigroup Inc. estimates that 50% tariffs would reduce India's annual economic growth by as much as 0.8 percentage points.
'Trump is being a bully with regards to India and its natural for Indians to want to stand with the leaders,' said Neelanjan Sircar, an associate professor at Ahmedabad University. 'Modi might use this for his advantage but it will all depend on how economic pain pans out.'
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