Can China keep winning without fighting?

Asia Times

07-03-2025

China's global expansion under President Xi Jinping reflects Sun Tzu's principle of 'subduing the enemy without fighting.'
Instead of direct military conflict, China relies on economic, diplomatic and technological influence. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), economic coercion and cyber operations, China has reshaped the geopolitical landscape.
However, this strategy is facing rising resistance. The United States and its allies have increased economic decoupling and military countermeasures.
At the same time, China's internal challenges, including an economic slowdown and demographic decline, raise questions about whether this strategy remains sustainable.
As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific and global power shifts continue, can China maintain its rise without provoking the very conflicts it seeks to avoid?
Sun Tzu emphasized winning through strategy, deception and psychological warfare rather than brute force. Xi has embraced these ideas, using economic dependencies and political maneuvering to expand influence without direct confrontation.
Unlike his predecessors, who prioritized cautious economic growth, Xi has taken a more aggressive stance in asserting China's dominance on the world stage.
Military confrontation with the US would obviously be costly. War would disrupt trade and economic stability, the two pillars of China's rise.
Instead, China uses indirect means to weaken adversaries while at the same time presenting itself as a peaceful global power. This calculated approach has allowed China to avoid provoking a direct military response to its moves while steadily advancing its geopolitical goals.
Economic expansion via debt diplomacy
China's BRI is central to this strategy. Massive infrastructure investments in Asia, Africa and Europe have created economic dependencies. While China presents these projects as mutually beneficial, they often leave recipient countries financially burdened.
One notable instance is Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway (SGR). China funded the SGR linking Mombasa and Nairobi, with plans to extend to Uganda.
However, the project faces challenges like stalled progress and low usage, raising concerns about its financial sustainability and Kenya's debt burden.
This pattern of debt diplomacy grants China long-term influence over key regions. Many countries accepting Chinese investments now find themselves caught between economic relief and political obligations.
While these projects bring development, they also strengthen China's geopolitical reach, thus ensuring that nations remain aligned with its interests.
At the same time, China has used trade as a weapon against countries that challenge its policies.
When Australia called for an investigation into Covid-19's origins, China retaliated with tariffs on Australian wine, barley and coal. South Korea faced similar treatment after deploying the THAAD missile defense system by restricting tourism and trade.
However, these tactics are not foolproof. Australia successfully redirected its exports to other markets, while South Korea strengthened its economic ties with the US and Europe. In addition, many nations are now diversifying trade partnerships to reduce reliance on China.
While economic coercion has worked in the past, its effectiveness is diminishing as more countries push back against Beijing's pressure tactics.
At the same time, China is aggressively expanding its dominance in technology, particularly in 5G, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.
Huawei's global expansion in 5G and other telecommunications has given China a critical edge in digital infrastructure. But it has also raised concerns over data security and espionage, resulting in bans and restrictions in many Western nations.
China also employs cyber warfare as a key part of its strategy. It has launched disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks against adversaries, especially in Taiwan. These operations aim to weaken enemy defences and control narratives without direct confrontation.
As technology becomes an increasingly powerful tool in global conflicts, China's ability to manipulate digital landscapes will remain a crucial element of its strategy.
Diplomatic manipulation
China has placed officials in key positions within the United Nations, the World Health Organization and other global bodies.
By influencing international policies, China ensures that global governance aligns with its interests. This allows it to shape narratives, control regulatory frameworks and sideline opposition without resorting to force.
One of Beijing's most significant diplomatic moves has been isolating Taiwan. China pressured several nations to sever ties with Taipei while increasing military provocations in the Taiwan Strait. The combination of diplomatic pressure and psychological warfare has made Taiwan's international standing increasingly precarious.
The US was initially slow to respond to China's economic and diplomatic expansion. However, in recent years, Washington has ramped up efforts to curb China's influence. It has imposed tariffs, restricted Chinese technology companies and reinforced alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
Initiatives like the QUAD alliance and the AUKUS security pact signal a coordinated effort to contain China. The US has also increased military patrols in the South China Sea and provided arms to Taiwan. These measures indicate that Washington is no longer willing to let China expand unchecked.
Despite its successes, China faces mounting challenges. Economic growth is slowing, and an aging population threatens long-term stability.
Beijing's real estate crisis and mounting debt add to its vulnerabilities. If China's economic power weakens, its ability to sustain global influence may also decline.
Furthermore, China's aggressive policies have alienated key trading partners. Countries that once saw China as an economic lifeline are now exploring alternatives.
The US dollar remains dominant in global finance, limiting China's ability to reshape the economic order. As China grapples with internal and external pressures, maintaining its current strategy is becoming increasingly difficult.
Risk of military confrontation
China's expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait could provoke a military clash with the US. While China has so far avoided direct war, its increasing military presence and confrontational tactics are heightening tensions.
The US and its allies have repeatedly warned against unilateral actions in the region. If China oversteps, it risks a conflict that could derail its long-term ambitions.
China's leadership understands these risks. However, rising nationalism, domestic pressures and trade tensions could push Beijing toward more aggressive moves.
If China miscalculates the response of the US and its allies, it could find itself embroiled in a conflict it is not prepared to fight.
China has successfully expanded its influence so far without engaging in direct warfare. Sun Tzu's principle of winning without fighting remains a core pillar of its approach.
However, growing global resistance, economic instability and military risks threaten the long-term sustainability of this strategy. The US and its allies are increasingly countering China's moves.
Trade diversification, military cooperation and technological restrictions are making it harder for China to operate unchallenged. Meanwhile, internal struggles ranging from a fast-aging population to an economic slowdown may further limit China's ability to project power.
The coming years will determine whether China can continue expanding without triggering the conflicts it seeks to avoid. While it has demonstrated that war is not the only path to dominance, sustaining this approach in a shifting global order will be its greatest challenge yet.
Tang Meng Kit is a master's student in international relations at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore.