Japan election 2025: Shigeru Ishiba faces political test as Japan votes in critical upper house election; Know the key issues and leaders contesting

Time of India

20-07-2025

Japanese voters are heading to the polls today (Sunday, July 20) in a crucial test of political stability and economic policy for the
upper house election
that could mark the end of Prime Minister
Shigeru Ishiba
's leadership. With
inflation
surging, threats of
US tariffs
, and rising populist rhetoric unsettling the political landscape, the result may dramatically reshape Japan's future at home and abroad.
Test for Shigeru Ishiba
Explore courses from Top Institutes in
Select a Course Category
healthcare
Project Management
Others
Artificial Intelligence
Healthcare
others
Data Science
Management
Operations Management
Data Analytics
Technology
MBA
Finance
MCA
CXO
Degree
Cybersecurity
Product Management
Design Thinking
PGDM
Public Policy
Digital Marketing
Leadership
Data Science
Skills you'll gain:
Duration:
11 Months
IIM Lucknow
CERT-IIML Healthcare Management India
Starts on
undefined
Get Details
Polls suggest Ishiba's ruling
Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP), together with its junior partner Komeito, may fail to secure the 50 contested seats needed to retain their fragile majority in the 248-seat upper house. With half the seats up for grabs and only 75 coalition-held seats not being contested, this election could push the government into an unprecedented position: a minority in both houses of Parliament.
"If the LDP–Komeito coalition falls short, it could be the final nail in the coffin for Ishiba," said Professor Toru Yoshida of Doshisha University. 'Japan has not seen a ruling party with no majority in either chamber since World War II.'
Key Issues
Economic pain and rising costs:
Live Events
Voters are reeling from inflation, particularly food prices. Rice has doubled in cost over the past year, while wages remain stagnant. Pensioners and the working class alike are feeling the pinch, leading to widespread frustration.
Trade Tensions with the US:
25 percent tariff deadline on Japanese exports to the US threatens to hammer Japan's auto industry and derail its economic recovery. Prime Minister Ishiba has failed to reach a trade deal despite multiple meetings with President Trump.
Energy and social security strain:
With energy subsidies flip-flopping and pension benefits shrinking, many voters feel betrayed. The government's crisis management has lacked coherence, further eroding confidence.
Populism and Immigration:
Emerging populist voices like the Sanseito party are capitalizing on public anxiety with tough anti-immigration rhetoric and skepticism toward globalization. This marks a sharp rightward tilt in Japanese politics, echoing trends seen in Europe and the US.
Political Scandals and Fatigue:
The LDP has not fully recovered from past scandals and inconsistent policy moves. Many voters are now looking beyond traditional parties in search of authenticity and reform.
Leaders Contesting
Shigeru Ishiba (LDP):
The embattled Prime Minister, known for his hawkish defense credentials and five-time leadership bids, is facing the biggest political test of his career. After losing the lower house majority in October 2024, he risks total collapse if the upper house results go poorly.
Sohei Kamiya (Sanseito):
Leader of the hard-right Sanseito party, Kamiya has stirred nationalist sentiments with promises of 'Japanese First' policies. His appeal to disillusioned conservatives may secure his party a dramatic rise in seats, from 2 to potentially over 10.
Shinjiro Koizumi
(LDP):
The young and popular farm minister, known for his bold action in releasing rice reserves, is widely seen as a possible successor to Ishiba if the Prime Minister steps down. He is the son of former PM Junichiro Koizumi and holds sway with younger voters.
Yoshihiko Noda (CDPJ):
A former Prime Minister and head of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Noda is pushing progressive policies such as tax cuts, same-sex marriage recognition, and gender equality. However, his party remains fragmented alongside others.
Komeito Leadership (Unnamed):
The junior coalition partner, rooted in the Buddhist Soka Gakkai movement, continues to support moderate, urban-centrist policies but is under pressure to justify its alliance with a weakening LDP.
What happens if Ishiba falls?
If the ruling coalition falls short, Ishiba will likely be ousted. LDP leadership would then be up for grabs, possibly triggering a new era of political bargaining, with fragile alliances and weaker mandates. This burden will be added by the US tariffs and rising trade tensions across the world.
Japan could enter uncharted political territory, with populist factions gaining ground and economic headwinds strengthening. Whether voters opt for continuity, change, or chaos will be known when the ballots are counted tonight after polls close at 8 p.m. (1100 GMT).
FAQs
What is Japan voting for today?
Japan is holding Upper House elections (also known as the House of Councillors) on Sunday, July 20, 2025. Voters will elect 125 members out of the 248-seat chamber.
When do we get results?
Polls close at 8:00 PM Japan time (1100 GMT) on July 20. Early results will begin coming in that night, with full outcomes expected by early July 21.