How Will Phillips 66 Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Friday, July 25, 2025. Analysts expect the company to declare earnings of $1.75 per share with sales amounting to $32.1 billion. This would mark a 26% decrease in earnings and a 16% drop in sales when compared to last year's figures of $2.38 per share and $38.1 billion, respectively. Historical data indicates that the stock has fallen 63% of the time in the day following earnings announcements, with a median decline of 2.5% and maximum one-day negative returns reaching 6%. Additionally, refer to What's Happening With Ericsson Stock?
In Q1, PSX reported net earnings of $487 million, a rise from $8 million in Q4, with losses in the refining segment balanced out by strong midstream, chemical, and marketing performance. Management intends to operate refineries at approximately mid-90% capacity in Q2, with a focus on operational efficiency. The company continues to refine its asset portfolio, highlighted by its latest sustainability report, while concentrating on minimizing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing safety.The current market capitalization stands at $51 Billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue reached $138 Billion, with the company remaining operationally profitable, posting $604 Million in operating profits and net income of $1.9 Billion. While the outcome will largely depend on how the results compare with consensus expectations, understanding historical trends could influence the odds in your favor if you are a trader focused on specific events.
There are two approaches to achieve this: comprehend the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement and adjust your positions accordingly afterward. That being said, if you aim for upside potential with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns of over 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks .
Phillips 66's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Below are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points, with 7 favorable and 12 unfavorable one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, favorable 1D returns were observed approximately 37% of the time.
and one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, favorable 1D returns were observed approximately 37% of the time. This percentage notably increases to 45% when considering data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
The median of the 7 positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -2.5%
Additional data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized, along with the statistics, in the table below.
Trefis
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the necessary trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves 'long' for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Trefis
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering significant returns for investors.
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