San Francisco enters alarming new 'doom loop' phase

Daily Mail​

5 days ago

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The San Francisco Bay Area is plummeting into a concerning new 'doom loop' as the region's rapidly aging population threatens its economic stability. San Francisco is seeing an influx of older residents, resembling the demographics of Tampa and Miami, Florida, where retirees are known to flock.
With the California hot spot's median age on the rise - more quickly than anywhere else in the US - worries about San Francisco's financial future have emerged. There are now less young people contributing to the economy by working, renting or simply going out, and industries across all sectors are feeling the burn. Having older residents also means many of them will be dependent on Social Security checks, increasing the federal burden in the region. And while San Francisco is facing the brunt of this unrelenting combination of factors, experts warn metros across the country are at the same risk.
'The aging thing might be the most important thing happening in American society that people aren't paying attention to enough,' urbanism expert Richard Florida, a professor at the University of Toronto, told the San Francisco Chronicle. 'And, in places like the Bay Area where everything's so expensive, it's arguably even more important.' The cost of living in San Francisco is roughly 67 percent higher than the national average, according to Rent Cafe data. Reporters from the SF Chronicle ventured to various parts of the Bay Area to gauge the extent of this economic demise.
Berkeley, once a bustling neighborhood home to UC Berkeley, is now categorized as 'a retirement community' of mainly single-family homes. Despite the surrounding neighborhood, UC Berkeley's enrollment rates have been steadily increasing over the past several years, according to the university. In Sonoma County, the number of children had plunged 35 percent over the past 10 years, the outlet reported. San Francisco bars have seen an overall decline in business, as older customers generally spend less money while younger patrons have been drinking less.
This alarming demographic shift in the Bay Area has been an under-estimated issue for years, but its impact was undeniable over the course of the pandemic. From 2020 to 2024, the metro's median age jumped the most out of all the country's major regions, the SF Chronicle reported. In 2020, the median age was 39, while it grew to 41 four years later. By 2055, more than half the Bay Area's nine counties will be pushing 50 years old. Meanwhile, other major regions such as Houston, Texas and Seattle, Washington have not yet seen median ages of 36 and 38 respectively.
San Francisco's future is looking grim, as the area has the smallest percentage of children out of the top 20 US metros. Last year, less than 19 percent of the city's population was under 18 years old. San Francisco County is in even worse shape, with only 13.5 percent of its population being children. Less children and young people means that academic institutions will see less students and many will likely be forced to shut down, experts predict. And data shows people starting families in the city are not particularly inclined to stay there.
'It's a major trigger point,' San Francisco's chief economist Ted Egan (pictured) told the SF Chronicle. 'People bump into space limitations in a rent-controlled apartment.' Those who stay in San Francisco tend to be established property owners, generally of an older age group. This 'lock-in' effect has caused housing prices to skyrocket.
The SF Chronicle reported that industries catering to older demographics - people in their 40s and beyond instead of those in their 20s and 30s - have been thriving. For instance, a clinic focused on helping people extend their lifespans in South San Francisco charges patients $19,000 a year for its services. But in the years to come, industries serving the elderly could also face road bumps. Older individuals will need senior living facilities and home health aides, which may be difficult to accomplish in a place with high construction costs and a shortage of skilled caregivers.