Anthony Albanese faces 'perilous path' as security and Trump's tariff agenda looms over China trip

Australia Broadcast Center

11-07-2025

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is preparing to fly to China tomorrow for a six-day trip, taking in three cities — Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu.
Mr Albanese will hold annual leaders' talks with China's Premier Li Qiang, as well as meeting China's President Xi Jinping.
The visit comes at a critical moment, with Australia increasingly uncertain about how to manage Donald Trump's erratic "America First" agenda, while dealing with a China which is both an indispensable economic partner and a looming strategic threat.
So, what will Mr Albanese do in China, and what are the main things to look out for on the visit?
Whenever the prime minister has talked about this trip there is one word that is close to his lips: jobs.
China remains Australia's largest export market by far, and the economic relationship continues to power ahead in the era of "stabilisation", with Beijing removing all the trade barriers it threw up when the relationship was at its nadir.
Unsurprisingly, Mr Albanese will bring a host of business executives with him, with heavyweights from Australia's financial, resources, agriculture and education sectors all on the list.
As China's middle class continues to swell in size, there are huge opportunities for Australian companies to exploit.
While the government continues to work dutifully on diversifying trade ties, the reality is that there's no ready replacement for a vast and growing market like China.
But there are limits.
While the government is happy to stick with the language of "stabilisation" and "cooperate where we can, disagree where we must", China continues to make it clear that it believes the booming trade relationship should yield more political dividends for Beijing.
When China's Ambassador to Australia made a pitch early this week to expand the free-trade agreement to include more contested fields like artificial intelligence, the prime minister was very publicly non-committal.
While some Chinese and Australian companies are already working together on AI, giving a government imprimatur to that risks drawing the government into much more difficult territory — particularly given the Trump administration will likely be watching closely.
Richard McGregor, from the Lowy Institute, says there's no chance the government will want to entwine Chinese-built artificial intelligence into Australian systems.
"You not only have to use it, you have to use it securely and you have to use it securely in tandem with allies and partners," he said.
"China's not a trusted security partner for Australia, so engaging too much with Australia is really out of bounds."
That's not the only thing likely to be out of bounds.
While the government has welcomed Chinese investment in many parts of the Australian economy, it's trying to ring-fence some of the most sensitive sectors — including rare earths and strategic infrastructure.
On top of the list is the Port of Darwin — which the government has promised to take out of the hands of Chinese company Landbridge, and return to the control of an Australian company.
China has repeatedly berated Australia for this, effectively accusing Canberra of paranoia and unfair discrimination against Chinese companies.
It's very likely China's top leaders will use their meeting with the prime minister to press him to abandon his election promise.
But there is very little chance of that happening, with the Treasurer Jim Chalmers telling RN Breakfast earlier this week that the government was not for turning.
"We've made it very clear that we will see the Port of Darwin return to Australian hands. That's what we committed to during the election," he said.
"We'll work through that methodically."
Plenty of other disputes will also have to be "worked through" during the prime minister's visit, even if there's little hope of resolution or compromise.
The Australian government remains convinced that China is trying to get a military foothold in the Pacific, while the People's Liberation Army Navy's partial circumnavigation of Australia just a few months ago sent a crystal-clear message to Canberra.
Australia remains deeply worried by China's massive conventional and nuclear military build-up and its threats against Taiwan, and dismayed by state repression in Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang.
Meanwhile, Australian security agencies say they remain locked in a constant battle with Chinese counterparts seeking to compromise the nation's critical infrastructure, and Australian writer Yang Hengjun remains locked up in a Chinese prison, in ailing health.
The prime minister will no doubt raise each and every one of these topics, even if Australia has little pressure or leverage it can meaningfully apply.
None of this means Australia can simply turn its back on China.
As Foreign Minister Penny Wong put it to ASEAN yesterday: "China's size and weight makes it central to solving global challenges, from climate change to global public health, from international trade to the energy transition."
For Australia, climate change is particularly close to the top of the list of priorities, particularly as the government struggles to keep its own commitments to cut emissions.
China is by far the world's largest emitter, but it's also ploughed extraordinary resources into renewable energy production, and now into decarbonising its industrial production.
The government has flagged that the two countries are likely to make at least some announcements in climate cooperation during the prime minister's visit, with Mr Albanese saying there was a "real prospect of further engagement" in green energy.
Caroline Wang from Clean Energy Finance, a think tank, says China leads the world by a "staggering margin" when it comes to many aspects of the energy transition.
"They manufacture 70 per cent of the world's EVs, and 80 per cent of solar panels," she told the ABC.
She says that means China will be indispensable to reducing emissions in Australia, and to the government's ambitions to build its own green industrial capacity through the Future Made in Australia plan.
"We need access to Chinese technology and Chinese industrial capability in order to do that," Ms Wang says.
"That's the kind of pragmatic cooperation that's already happening in other parts of the world and that Australia can look to."
Donald Trump will also be looming behind the prime minister's visit, particularly with Mr Albanese taking political flak for the fact he still hasn't secured a face-to-face meeting with the US president.
Australia wants to make sure the US stays anchored in this region, in order to balance China's swelling power.
But the Trump administration has already shown it's willing to use tariffs as a blunt instrument with allies and partners alike; not just to extract benefits for the US, but also to force other countries to change the way they deal with China.
That's the last thing Australia wants to face.
"Let's not forget we're getting it from both sides," says Richard McGregor.
"So it's a very perilous path we have to tread."
And while he's in China, the prime minister will be very careful not to put a foot wrong.