'Supercharged' storm may bring downpours, strong winds to Northwest Florida on Sunday
What AccuWeather is calling a 'supercharged' springtime pattern of weather in the eastern and central United States has already brought historic flooding and more than 50 tornadoes, at least two of which were rated as EF3 tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, since Wednesday.
The severe weather pattern will move eastward over the weekend. The area expected to see the highest risk of severe storms will move southeastward over southern Arkansas, eastern Mississippi and northern Louisiana on Saturday.
North Florida will see lingering energy from Saturday's storms, which is expected to bring reduced impacts to the Sunshine State Sunday through Sunday night and even less of an impact on the eastern side of the state on Monday.
Pensacola through Panama City is expected to see the worst impacts, which could bring gusty winds, hail, disruptive downpours and possibly a tornado.
A cold front that has remained relatively still over the past few days will start tracking northwest on Saturday. The front will pass over the area throughout Sunday and into Sunday night, bringing rain, potential storms and some cooler temperatures with it.
Pensacola is likely to start seeing showers as early as Saturday night, with the chance of severe weather increasing through Sunday.
As of right now, weather conditions appear to support isolated severe thunderstorms in the area that could cause damaging winds and a possible tornado or two, according to the NWS Mobile's latest forecaster's discussion.
However, the current weather pattern also shows weak upward motion in the atmosphere, and the wind flow pattern in the middle and upper atmosphere remains unidirectional, which could limit the threat.
East of Interstate 65 across south central Alabama is the most likely place for severe storms to develop, should they develop at all.
Storms aren't likely to be widespread. Instead, they will likely occur over the same areas.
Florida, along with the rest of the southeastern United States, has experienced some unseasonably warm temperatures thanks to a dome of building heat, but that should dissipate early next week.
The Pensacola area has seen temperatures as high as 9.1 degrees above historical normals this week. Low temperatures are expected to be as high as 72 degrees before dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s, which are more normal for April.
A February tornado that briefly touched down and damaged multiple buildings at a Ferry Pass industrial park in Pensacola was the start of a wave of severe weather threats that have plagued the area in recent months.
Nearly every week in March brought a new severe weather pattern that impacted the majority of the central and eastern parts of the country, with the Florida Panhandle sitting just on the edge of each system.
So far, Pensacola has managed to avoid any major impacts during each event. Monday was a bit of an exception, however, as a record 6.09 inches of rain fell in such a short amount of time it flooded streets, canceled some flights and even closed down the Pensacola International Airport.
Wind speeds on Monday were measured at 39 mph, and the highest gust speed was recorded at 63 mph, according to data from the National Weather Service Mobile office.
Friday
Day: Cloudy, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Night: A 20% chance of showers after 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday
Day: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 78. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 59. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
Day: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Day: Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind around 10 mph.
Night: Clear, with a low around 47.
Wednesday
Day: Sunny, with a high near 71.
Night: Clear, with a low around 54.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: 'Supercharged' storm threatens Pensacola, Northwest Florida Sunday
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin forecasted to become a hurricane. What's it track? Will it impact MA?
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to intensify into the first major hurricane of the season, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm formed near the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend and has strengthened. 'Erin will enter an area with conducive atmospheric conditions that will allow it to quickly strengthen north of the Lesser Antilles," AccuWeather lead hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a press release. 'Water temperatures across much of the Atlantic main development region are plenty warm to support tropical development and even rapid intensification." Here's what to know about the track of Tropical Storm Erin. Where is Tropical Storm Erin? Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Erin? It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Massachusetts, the rest of New England or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Erin. The track will be determined by "positioning of the Bermuda high and the strength of a cold front pushing off the East Coast." according to AccuWeather. The storm could be turned out to sea or set a track for the track depending on conditions. 'If the trough is stronger and faster, it will help steer Erin away from the East Coast and out to sea," DaSilva said. "This is the scenario we typically see with recurving storms. If the trough is slower, the storm will be able to advance farther westward toward the coast of the Carolinas." Regardless, the chance of New England seeing any of the effects of the storm are "low," according to those visiting beaches along the East Coast later this week and through the weekend should be vigilant of rough surf, learn the warning signs of rip currents, and only swim in areas with lifeguards on duty, AccuWeather stressed in a release. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explained that "rip currents are powerful, narrow channels of fast-moving water... Moving at speeds of up to eight feet per second, rip currents can move faster than an Olympic swimmer." If you encounter a rip current, swim parallel to the shore and then back at an angle, according to NOAA. What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now? Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Somelimited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The system is expected to move northward over cooler waters by Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical development. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent. Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent. Northeastern Gulf: A surface trough near the coast of Louisiana is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland latertoday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf coast over the next day or so. Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent. Formation chance through seven days: near 0 percent. What's the hurricane outlook for the 2025 season? The AccuWeather 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is predicting 13-18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, adding "Three to six direct U.S. impacts are forecast, the same range as last year's catastrophic season with six landfalls." The report noted that the climatological peak of hurricane season begins Sept. 10. What is the NOAA forecast on hurricanes in 2025? NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes. Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report. This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Tropical Storm Erin expected to become hurricane. Will it impact MA?
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin expected to strengthen, become hurricane. Latest spaghetti models
Tropical Storm Erin continues to move quickly west, and is expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Strengthening is expected to begin soon, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are predicting Erin will become a major hurricane toward the end of the week or over the weekend. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Even as a tropical rainstorm, Erin dumped 7 to 8 inches of rain on the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, killing at least six people, according to AccuWeather. The National Hurricane Center said it is still too early to determine "what impacts, if any, Erin will bring" to Florida or the east coast of the United States. Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm closely and to make sure they're prepared. Where is Tropical Storm Erin and where is it going? Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin ➤ How often has Florida been impacted, threatened by August hurricanes? We took a look back Track all active Atlantic storms and disturbances What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season? Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time. "It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. "Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint." On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators. ➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free Florida weather radar for Aug. 12, 2025 Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida When is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane names for 2025 season Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea (June 20) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter (Aug. 3) Erin: AIR-rin (Aug. 11) Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Erin 2025: spaghetti models, Florida hurricane tracker
USA Today
9 hours ago
- USA Today
Will Tropical Storm Erin hit the US or turn? Here's what early forecasts say.
For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August. Tropical Storm Erin, which is still thousands of miles from the U.S. East Coast in the central Atlantic Ocean, is traveling west and forecast to strengthen into the season's first hurricane by Aug. 14, the National Hurricane Center said. But will it hit the United States? Most reliable computer models that meteorologists use to forecast storms show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast in mid-August. "It is too soon to discount – or pinpoint – USA landfall impacts from Erin but based upon current model guidance – the chance RIGHT NOW is low, at less than 10%," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY Aug. 11. WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA TODAY that "it's worth reiterating that forecasts 5 to 10 days out are subject to large errors, so we'll need to hang tight before confidently giving the U.S. the all-clear." Maue predicted that "as the Lower 48 comes into view of Erin in the next few days, our models will become more confident/certain on the eventual outcome — so we should know on Thursday (Aug. 14) what will happen." However, even if Erin does avoid landfall on the United States, "there will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into the following week," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said. What forces are guiding Erin? As is often the case with Atlantic hurricanes, Erin's path will be primarily determined by the strength of the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure that sits over the western Atlantic Ocean in the summer. The stronger the Bermuda High, the more of a threat Erin is to the United States. A weaker Bermuda High is better news. "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. As of the morning of Aug. 12, the hurricane center reported that Erin should head west and slow down as the Bermuda High weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the high is expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward track is likely. Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said the track forecast is in decent model agreement, "showing a good, tight track consensus through Sunday or Monday, bringing the storm north of the Caribbean islands." Warm waters could fuel major hurricane All signs point to Erin reaching major hurricane status, the hurricane center said. This means the storm will reach Category 3 status, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph. The forecast is due to warm waters where the storm is expected to track, providing fuel for the storm, the hurricane center said. Low wind sheer could also help Erin strengthen There will also be a lack of wind shear that acts to tear developing hurricanes apart. "Low wind shear (a lack of disruptive winds) north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in an online report. What parts of the US coast are most at risk? AccuWeather said that a major hurricane passing 100 miles east of the United States or west of Bermuda could still bring tropical storm conditions in terms of wind, heavy seas and perhaps heavy rain. "Land that extends farther to the east might be the most prone in this case, such as coastal areas of North Carolina, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in New England," said AccuWeather meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Elizabeth Danco in an online report. In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin. How worried should people be? The hurricane center, as always, stressed caution: It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the east coast of the United States, the hurricane center said Aug. 12. However, the hurricane center said "As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place." Checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane Lanza said the odds favor a miss: "History favors an out to sea track, though not at 100 percent. Of the 56 known named storms track within 120 nautical miles of Erin's forecast position in 24 hours, 51 of them have gone out to sea, a U.S. hit rate of about 9 percent."
