Tropical Storm Erin forecasted to become a hurricane. What's it track? Will it impact MA?
The storm formed near the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend and has strengthened. 'Erin will enter an area with conducive atmospheric conditions that will allow it to quickly strengthen north of the Lesser Antilles," AccuWeather lead hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a press release. 'Water temperatures across much of the Atlantic main development region are plenty warm to support tropical development and even rapid intensification."
Here's what to know about the track of Tropical Storm Erin.
Where is Tropical Storm Erin?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Erin?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Massachusetts, the rest of New England or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Erin.
The track will be determined by "positioning of the Bermuda high and the strength of a cold front pushing off the East Coast." according to AccuWeather.
The storm could be turned out to sea or set a track for the track depending on conditions.
'If the trough is stronger and faster, it will help steer Erin away from the East Coast and out to sea," DaSilva said. "This is the scenario we typically see with recurving storms. If the trough is slower, the storm will be able to advance farther westward toward the coast of the Carolinas."
Regardless, the chance of New England seeing any of the effects of the storm are "low," according to AccuWeather.However, those visiting beaches along the East Coast later this week and through the weekend should be vigilant of rough surf, learn the warning signs of rip currents, and only swim in areas with lifeguards on duty, AccuWeather stressed in a release.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explained that "rip currents are powerful, narrow channels of fast-moving water... Moving at speeds of up to eight feet per second, rip currents can move faster than an Olympic swimmer."
If you encounter a rip current, swim parallel to the shore and then back at an angle, according to NOAA.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Somelimited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The system is expected to move northward over cooler waters by Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical development.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent.
Northeastern Gulf: A surface trough near the coast of Louisiana is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland latertoday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf coast over the next day or so.
Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: near 0 percent.
What's the hurricane outlook for the 2025 season?
The AccuWeather 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is predicting 13-18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, adding "Three to six direct U.S. impacts are forecast, the same range as last year's catastrophic season with six landfalls."
The report noted that the climatological peak of hurricane season begins Sept. 10.
What is the NOAA forecast on hurricanes in 2025?
NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Tropical Storm Erin expected to become hurricane. Will it impact MA?
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Major Hurricane Erin Maps Tracker: Radar, Spaghetti Models, Impacts And More
Erin became the first Atlantic major hurricane of the season on Friday before explosively intensifying into a Category 5 storm within 24 hours, and the storm will remain a major hurricane through the weekend. The storm is traveling westward to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, where it will have impacts such as wind, rain and high surf. You can track it all with the maps below, including forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. And if you're seeking a more in-depth look at Erin, click here. Current Information Current Satellite and Radar Forecast And Threats Forecast Cone Of Uncertainty Spaghetti Models Forecast Impacts Rainfall Waves Forecast Environmental Conditions Ocean Warmth Wind Shear Steering Hurricane Season Tracks, So Far Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin Triggers Evacuation Orders Along Parts Of North Carolina's Outer Banks
Hurricane Erin isn't expected to directly hit the U.S. East Coast, but by doubling or tripling in size, its impacts threatened the North Carolina Outer Banks, the thin, low stretch of barrier islands off the mainland, that poke far out into the Atlantic Ocean, Dare County emergency officials said as they declared a state of emergency. They ordered an evacuation of Hatteras Island starting Monday. Several days of heavy surf and high winds and waves could wash out parts of North Carolina Highway 12, which connects the popular vacation spot to the mainland, the National Weather Service said. The center of the storm is forecast to stay at least 200 miles from the Outer Banks but will also bring rip tides all along the East Coast, officials said. (MORE: Here's The Latest On Hurricane Erin) Bermuda could have similar conditions as Erin is forecast to turn to the north and then northeast, forecasters said. Erin, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2025, reached an exceedingly dangerous Category 5 status Saturday with maximum winds of 160 mph before weakening. The storm's maximum sustained winds were 125 mph Sunday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The winds decreased as the storm went through internal changes. Erin is expected to remain powerful for the next several days and is expected to strengthen somewhat over the next 48 hours as it grows, forecasters said Sunday afternoon. 'You're dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It's a dangerous hurricane in any event,' said Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center. (MORE: Track Hurricane Erin With These Maps) The rain and winds from the outer bands of the storm left about 147,000 customers without power Sunday morning in Puerto Rico, according to Luma Energy, a private company that oversees the transmission and distribution of power on the island. The weather canceled more than 20 flights, officials said. Swells were also expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, forecasters said. The Coast Guard allowed all ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to reopen on Sunday as winds and rains in the area decreased.
New York Post
an hour ago
- New York Post
Hurricane Erin set to regain strength, bring life-threatening conditions to East Coast beaches
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico – Hurricane Erin is likely to restrengthen again as it passes east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas on Monday after lashing the Caribbean with damaging winds and flooding rain. Eventually, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Erin's impacts will spread to the entire US East Coast with life-threatening beach conditions later this week. Hurricane Erin, which became the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, is no doubt going to be a storm for the history books. The powerful storm rapidly intensified over the weekend, going from a Category 1 hurricane to a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph in a matter of hours. Advertisement While Erin is forecast to stay east of the US, impacts from this monster storm will be felt up and down the US East Coast, including on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. On Sunday, officials in Dare County ordered evacuations for Hatteras Island and declared a state of emergency for the entire county due to the 'life-threatening impacts to the Dare County coastline.' Over the weekend, ports were closed and flights were canceled, impacting travel, and local officials told residents to prepare for potentially life-threatening impacts from Erin as it brushed by the Caribbean islands. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Erin remains a major Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph as the storm continues to move off to the west-northwest at 13 mph. 'Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye diameter increasing from 5-10 n miles to around 40 n miles. If the replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the eyewall by tonight,' the NHC wrote on Sunday evening. 'This would likely result in another intensification episode.' Advertisement 7 A truck driving through flooding caused by Hurricane Erin in Naguabo, Puerto Rico on Aug. 16, 2025. Photo by RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP via Getty Images 7 A satellite image of Hurricane Erin on Aug. 17, 2025. via REUTERS Hurricane Erin is also getting larger – hurricane-force winds extend about 25 miles from the storm's center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. 'The hurricane will also grow in size,' FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. 'As the circulation diameter gets larger, the peak winds normally diminish because the energy in the system is spread out over a larger area.' Advertisement Hurricane Erin is expected to continue to move off to the west-northwest on Sunday with a decrease in forward speed before a gradual turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. The center of Hurricane Erin is forecast to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday night and Monday. Hurricane Erin is currently located about 275 miles to the north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and about 165 miles to the east of Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 7 This graphic shows the forecast track for Hurricane Erin. Fox Weather Advertisement A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeastern Bahamas. While the Caribbean islands were spared a direct hit from the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Erin, conditions remain extremely dangerous over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as outer bands lashed the region with gusty winds and heavy rain. The NHC said those outer bands will continue to impact the area on Sunday, and forecast rain totals of 3-6 inches, with isolated totals of up to 8 inches, are expected. The National Weather Service office in San Juan has issued severe Flash Flood Warnings for the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as the storm scoots by to the north. 7 A red flag warning seen at a beach in San Juan as Hurricane Erin approached on Aug. 16, 2025. AFP via Getty Images 7 A flooded house in Guayama, Puerto Rico on Aug. 17, 2025 Photo by RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP via Getty Images So far, at least 9 inches of rain has fallen across Tortola in the British Virgin Islands, with Caguas and Camuy in Puerto Rico and St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands picking up more than 2 inches of rain. Local officials have urged residents to be aware of possible mudslides and landslides due to the relentless rounds of rain from Hurricane Erin's outer bands that have been lashing the region. Advertisement Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force could also occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. According to utility company LUMA, more than 150,000 power outages were reported across Puerto Rico as Hurricane Erin scooted by the island early Sunday morning. 'The adverse weather has caused multiple interruptions across the island,' the company said. 'Our teams continue to work to address each situation as quickly and safely as possible.' 7 This graphic shows Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in effect for Hurricane Erin. Fox Weather Advertisement In addition, tropical-storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Turks and Caicos Islands starting Sunday night, and in the southeastern Bahamas later Sunday night and Monday. But it isn't just the relentless rain and wind that could be life-threatening. Ocean swells generated by Hurricane Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next few days. Massive swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the East Coast of the US and Atlantic Canada during the early to middle portion of the workweek. Advertisement Those rough conditions will also likely lead to life-threatening rip currents along East Coast beaches. Will Hurricane Erin hit the US? 7 Coastal hazards expected through this week. Fox Weather Some of Hurricane Erin's impacts will be felt on the East Coast from Florida to New England, although a direct hit isn't expected. Coastal communities should be on alert for dangerous surf conditions producing massive waves and deadly rip currents through this week. Advertisement The National Weather Service office in Newport/ Morehead City issued a High Surf advisory and Coastal Flood Watch for parts of the Outer Banks, including west Carteret and coastal Onslow counties. Large breaking waves between 10 and 15 feet are expected. 'The powerful hurricane will put a tremendous amount of energy into the ocean, which will be felt along all coastlines from the Caribbean to Canada, including the Bahamas and the US East Coast,' Norcross continued.
