Citi sees gold below $3,000 after Q3 2025 on weak demand, growth optimism
June 17 (Reuters) - Citi lowered its short-term and long-term price targets for gold, projecting prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026, driven by declining investment demand and an improving global growth outlook, the bank said in a note dated Monday.
The bank revised its 0-3 month and 6-12 month gold price targets to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500 and $2,800 per ounce from $3,000, respectively.
Gold prices are expected to continue consolidating between $3,100-$3,500 per ounce in the third quarter in the bank's base case, supported by geopolitical risks, potential U.S. tariff policy changes, and U.S. budget concerns, before a downward trend begins, Citi noted.
"We see investment demand for gold abating in late 2025 and 2026, as ultimately, we see the President Trump popularity and US growth 'put' kicking in, especially as the US mid-terms come into focus," Citi said in a note.
Gold could return to around $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026, the bank said.
In Citi's bullish case scenario, gold prices could exceed $3,500/oz in the third quarter on stronger hedging and investment demand amid U.S. economic and geopolitical tensions.
While in bank's bearish case prices could fall below $3,000/oz as tariff disputes are resolved, geopolitical risks ease, and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing, though emerging market central bank buying could keep prices elevated.
However, Citi assigned only 20% probability to their bullish and bearish case each.
In contrast to gold's cautious outlook, Citi forecast silver prices to rise to $40 per ounce over the next 6-12 months, driven by tightening availability and robust demand.
Silver could potentially reach $46 per ounce by the third quarter of 2025 in a bullish scenario, bolstered by a quicker resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and hawkish Federal Reserve policy, the bank added.
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