Weak hands at the helm, from Tokyo to Kiev
Japanese politics enters uncharted territory
Scott Foster reports on the crushing electoral defeat for Japan's ruling LDP-led coalition in recent Upper House elections. Voter dissatisfaction with inflation, taxes, and immigration fueled a sharp rise for populist challengers, signaling a shift in Japan's political landscape.
From Brussels to Berlin, Trump sees an EU ripe to squeeze
Diego Faßnacht argues that Germany's much-publicized €631 billion corporate investment pledge is more political theater than economic transformation. Washington, meanwhile, plans sweeping tariffs on European imports, confident that Germany will bear the brunt.
Low expectations in Istanbul as Ukraine war grinds on
James Davis observes that talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul yielded little optimism, while Zelensky's controversial move to bring Ukraine's anti-corruption agency under presidential control has sparked protests and speculation about his political future.
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AllAfrica
4 hours ago
- AllAfrica
Road to Palestinian state must pass through Saudi Arabia
War makes bystanders feel powerless. Throughout the so-far 22 months of brutal conflict that began with Hamas's slaughter and abduction of Israelis in October 2023, Europeans have looked and felt impotent. This has only partly been because they have also been divided; mainly, it has been because their words, brave or not, proved irrelevant. The question now is whether the decision by France's President Emmanuel Macron to join 11 other EU countries in giving diplomatic recognition to a Palestinian state will be yet another demonstration of European powerlessness and irrelevance. There is a chance that this French initiative could prove different. That chance does not depend much on European unity or disunity, but rather on whether France and others can build a partnership with Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, that is powerful and determined enough to force Israel and the United States to change course. The chance currently looks a small one, but it may be worth taking. The timing of President Macron's announcement was no accident. On July 28-29, France and Saudi Arabia are scheduled to co-chair a ministerial conference at the United Nations in New York on the Palestinian question, which is intended to be followed by a conference of heads of state in New York in September, alongside the UN General Assembly. The French initiative is intended to inject momentum and an air of diplomatic seriousness into a process that otherwise looked destined to fail. It may still fail. But the small chance that it could make progress depends on France and others convincing the Arab leaders, especially Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, that by working together, they might be able to make the Americans take them seriously. Which really depends on Saudi Arabia's crown prince showing the courage and determination to press America's Donald Trump to take the idea of a Palestinian state seriously. The terrible truth about the past 22 months of conflict, chiefly in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, is that none of the powers involved — neither the Hamas militia, which has governed Gaza since 2006, nor Israel nor Israel's main arms-supplier, the United States — has shown that it cares much about the fate of the roughly 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza nor the roughly 3 million living in the other Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967, known as the West Bank. The 60,000 Palestinians who have died in the conflict have just been seen as collateral damage by everyone concerned. Last week, Israeli and American negotiators withdrew from ceasefire talks with Hamas held in the Arab state of Qatar. It is not yet clear why the talks broke down, but it appears that in return for releasing the 50 remaining Israeli hostages that it holds (of whom 20 are thought to be alive, and 30 dead) Hamas demanded the release by Israel of a large number of Palestinian prisoners. The fact that all sides are delaying a ceasefire over a mere numbers game suggests a lack of seriousness about stopping the fighting. Amid that lack of seriousness, an already deep divide over the idea of a separate Palestinian state has deepened further. The notion of a 'two state solution' to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dates back many decades, but for a long period beginning in the 1990s it took on an aura of consensus, with the main issue being one of how the Israelis and Palestinians could come to an agreement on borders, on the sensitive status of Jerusalem, and on how the Palestinian state would be governed. However, in recent years, but especially since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, the very idea of a two-state solution has come into question. Previous American administrations, including that of President Joe Biden at the time of Hamas's attacks, had continued to say they were in favor of a Palestinian state even without doing anything serious to advance the idea. But now the Trump administration no longer even talks about it. The divide now is between, on one side, those who argue that creating a sovereign Palestinian state within Gaza and the West Bank represents the only path to a sustainable peace, for it would at last allow Palestinians to govern and police themselves and end their colonial status. And on the other side those, led by the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who argue that the experience of Gaza shows that a Palestinian state would be a recipe for perpetual war, as it would provide a base from which Hamas-like militias could and would seek to destroy their Israeli neighbors. In reality, both of these propositions contain truth, as does a third proposition, that the status quo of Israeli occupation is itself unsustainable. It is always going to be hard for Israelis and Palestinians to live peacefully alongside each other having fought almost constantly since Israel was founded in 1948, whether in one state or two. The prospect for a more peaceful future must depend on how both states are governed and policed. This is where the rich Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, could play a crucial role. But it is a role they have sought to avoid until now. If Gaza is to be rebuilt and if any Palestinian state is to be viable, Arab money and intervention will be essential. Yet in the past, the Arabs have been just like the Europeans: powerless bystanders offering words but few actions. Unless and until the United States decides again to promote the idea of a Palestinian state and therefore to pressure Israel to take the idea seriously, there is little prospect of such a state being created. Diplomatic recognition by France, like the earlier recognition by Ireland, Spain and others, will not change the reality, which is that a Palestinian state does not exist. The only thing currently that could stand a chance of changing that reality would be if Saudi Arabia were to make a serious effort to change America's view, perhaps by making the re-adoption of a two-state solution a condition for any other deals Trump wants to make with the Arab states. With their old enemy Iran now severely weakened, this could be a moment when the Saudis feel able to take a diplomatic risk. Which is why President Macron has made his own move, in the hope of strengthening the Saudis' nerve. Other Europeans, including Britain's Sir Keir Starmer and Italy's Giorgia Meloni, should offer him support. The point is worth repeating: it is a small chance, but one that is worth taking. This article first appeared on Bill Emmott's Global View Substack and is republished with kind permission. Read the original here.
HKFP
5 hours ago
- HKFP
CK Hutchison eyes inviting Chinese ‘major strategic investor' to Panama ports deal
Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison said Monday it was eyeing inviting a Chinese 'major strategic investor' to join a US-led consortium negotiating the sale of its global ports business outside China, including operations at the Panama Canal. The firm said in March it was offloading the firms — including operations in the vital Central American waterway — to a group led by asset manager BlackRock for US$19 billion in cash. The sale was seen as a political victory for US President Donald Trump, who had vowed to 'take back' the Panama Canal from alleged Chinese control, prompting Beijing's ire. China's market regulator said in March it was reviewing the deal. '(CK Hutchison) remains in discussions with members of the consortium with a view to inviting (a) major strategic investor from (China) to join as a significant member of the consortium,' the group said in a stock exchange filing. The firm added that changes to the consortium's membership and deal structure will be needed for the deal 'to be capable of being approved by all relevant authorities'. CK Hutchison announced in March it was offloading its global ports business outside China — including operations in the vital Central American waterway — to a group led by asset manager BlackRock for $19 billion in cash. The sale was seen as a political victory for US President Donald Trump, who had vowed to 'take back' the Panama Canal from alleged Chinese control, drawing Beijing's ire. China's market regulator said in March it was reviewing the deal. CK Hutchison said Monday that the 'period for exclusive negotiations' mentioned in the March announcement had expired, but that discussions will continue. It did not name the major Chinese investor. China's biggest shipping company Cosco was set to join the consortium and was requesting veto rights or equivalent powers, Bloomberg News reported. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Denise Wong told the outlet that 'ongoing negotiations and the reported inclusion of Cosco Shipping in the consortium have likely eased concerns over Chinese regulatory hurdles, strengthening investor confidence in the deal's viability'. CK Hutchison said it 'intends to allow such time as is required for such discussions to achieve' a workable arrangement. It said it had stated on several occasions that it 'will not proceed with any transaction that does not have the approval of all relevant authorities'. Its Hong Kong-listed shares climbed nearly one percent Monday, while Cosco rose 0.5 percent. The consortium's original structure was designed to pass control of CK Hutchison's two Panama ports to BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners unit, while the remaining ports will go to Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte's Terminal Investment Limited. AFP has contacted Cosco for comment. The Panama Ports Company, a CK Hutchison subsidiary, has managed the port of Cristobal on the canal's Atlantic side and Balboa on the Pacific side since 1997, via a concession from the Panama government.
RTHK
6 hours ago
- RTHK
US-EU trade deal lifts local stocks
US-EU trade deal lifts local stocks Stocks rose after a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union lifted sentiment. File photo: RTHK The Hang Seng Index gained 70 points, or 0.28 percent, to open at 25,458 points on Monday. Across the border, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.57 percent to 3,594 while the Shenzhen Component Index was up 0.02 percent at 11,176. Stocks rose after a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union lifted sentiment and provided clarity in a pivotal week headlined by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan policy meetings. Countries are looking to finalise trade deals ahead of an August 1 deadline, with talks between the US and China set for Monday in Stockholm. (Agencies)
