Trump's 'big beautiful' bill will cut $186 billion from SNAP through 2035—how states might handle the changes

CNBC

6 days ago

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program helps more than 42 million people afford groceries each month, making it the largest anti-hunger program in the United States. But due to President Donald Trump's tax and spending megabill signed on July 4, that support is set to shrink dramatically, experts say.
The "big beautiful" bill will cut about $186 billion from SNAP funding through 2034, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
Cuts to the program and significant cost shifts to states will leave millions of low-income Americans without some or all of the food assistance they need to put meals on the table, says Katie Bergh, senior policy analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute.
"For decades, SNAP has been there for low-income families, and as a result, we have largely eliminated severe hunger and malnutrition in this country," Bergh says. "But that's not a guarantee without the support that this program provides to help low-income families afford groceries."
Currently, people who get SNAP benefits receive an average of $6.20 per day, distributed through an Electronic Benefit Transfer card that reloads monthly and can be used at authorized grocery stores and retailers. These amounts could decline or reach fewer people under the "big beautiful bill," Bergh says.
Some of the changes to the program include:
The new budget bill increases the amount of administrative costs states need to cover, and for the first time in the program's history, requires states to foot a portion of the costs for food benefits, too.
Those higher costs for SNAP could threaten the future of the program in some states altogether, according to the CBPP. That's because states need to balance their budgets annually, and if a state cannot make up the percentage of SNAP it needs to cover, officials will be left with few options for making adjustments, Bergh says.
The percentage of SNAP benefit costs a state will have to cover depends on its SNAP payment error rate. The error rate is the percentage of benefits incorrectly paid out by a state, by giving too much or too little to recipients. If a state's error rate is at or above 6%, it will have to cover 5% to 15% of SNAP benefit costs, determined on a sliding scale.
In 2024, the average state error rate was 10.9%, according to a report from the Department of Agriculture. Any state with an error rate above 10% will have to cover 15% of its benefit costs under the "big beautiful" bill.
If California has to cover 15% of benefit costs, it will owe $1.8 billion for SNAP funding in 2028, according to estimated projections from Feeding America, a national network of food service programs. Other states could owe hundreds of millions under the cost shift, Bergh says.
Here's what could happen if your state can't foot the bill.
To continue providing SNAP, some state officials may slash funding in other areas to make room in the budget. That could result in cuts to housing or public safety programs, according to a report from the CBPP.
Tax hikes could also be on the table, Bergh says, though changes would vary based on state budgeting.
States looking to cut costs may significantly restrict SNAP eligibility to reduce the number of people who qualify for the program, according to the CBPP.
That could be done by adding "red tape" that makes it harder for people who are eligible for benefits to access and keep them, Bergh says.
She says administrative barriers tend to impact the "most vulnerable people," such as seniors and people with disabilities, as well as working families who lack the time to go back and forth with a SNAP benefits office.
In the situation that a state cannot come up with the money to compensate for the federal funding it's lost, state officials may decide it's necessary to cut SNAP entirely, Bergh says. It is not immediately clear how many states are at risk of losing benefits altogether, as error rates fluctuate from year to year and could change significantly before the benefits cost-shift to states goes into effect in October 2027.
Because food banks are "already overburdened," Bergh says, "they absolutely cannot fill the hole that losing SNAP would leave in a state." That means millions of low-income families would be left without basic food security if their states lose SNAP altogether, she says.
Policy centers and state officials are still awaiting additional guidance from the Department of Agriculture on the steps states need to take to comply with the new provisions and what the timeline for implementing changes will be, Bergh says.
Although this is an unprecedented time, SNAP recipients should feel reassured that changes to SNAP aren't going to happen immediately, or all at once, she says.
"It is very hard to say at a national level what the impacts in particular states might be," Bergh says. But, "nothing is going to change overnight."
As states await updates, it's best for recipients to confirm their contact information is up to date so they don't miss any important notices, per recommendations from state officials.