CPI Inflation In June 2025 Falls To 2.1%, Lowest Since January 2019
India's retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 2.1 per cent in June 2025, according to the latest official data released on Monday, July 14, 2025. It is the lowest inflation print after January 2019.
The CPI-based inflation had stood at 2.82 per cent in May 2025 and 5.08 per cent in June 2024.
'Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of June 2025 over June 2024 is 2.10% (provisional). There is a decline of 72 basis points in the headline inflation of June 2025 in comparison to May 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation after January 2019," the National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, said in a statement on Monday.
The previous low of 1.97 per cent was recorded in January 2019.
The NSO said the significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation in June 2025 is mainly attributed to favourable base effect and decline in inflation of vegetables, pulses and products, meat and fish, cereals and products, sugar and confectionery, milk and products and spices.
Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said, 'The softer-than-expected headline inflation comes on the back of moderating food prices. However, core inflation has ticked up. Overall, the high-frequency mandi prices suggest food prices remain largely muted, except for few vegetable prices. We expect the FY26 inflation to undershoot RBI's estimates of 3.7% by around 50 bps. While comfortable inflation opens room for further monetary easing, we expect the RBI to maintain a pause in the coming 1-2 meetings and remain watchful of the transmission ahead along with global uncertainties."
Meanwhile, according to the latest data release separately by the commerce ministry, wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to (-) 0.13 per cent in June as prices of food articles and fuel saw deflation, along with easing in manufactured product costs, government data showed on Monday. WPI-based inflation was 0.39 per cent in May. It was 3.43 per cent in June last year.
Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its retail inflation projection for FY26 to 3.7%, down from its earlier estimate of 4%. This marks the lowest average retail inflation forecast by the central bank in recent years.
The downward revision came alongside a surprise 50 basis points repo rate cut, bringing the key policy rate down to 5.5%, and a 100-bps CRR reduction as the RBI signalled confidence in the easing of price pressures amid a supportive global and domestic backdrop.
However, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, 'While food inflation outlook remains soft, core inflation is expected to remain benign with easing of international commodity prices in line with the anticipated global growth slowdown. The inflation outlook for the year is being revised downwards from the earlier forecast of 4.0 per cent to 3.7 per cent."
The next RBI MPC meeting is scheduled for three days between August 4 and August 6.
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July 14, 2025, 16:16 IST
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