Trump's Gulf Gambit: Economic Pacts, Strategic Realignments, and the Battle for the Middle East's Future

Daily News Egypt

21-05-2025

US President Donald Trump's May 2025 Gulf tour was far more than a ceremonial visit; it marked a decisive reassertion of American influence in Middle Eastern affairs. Marrying economic ambitions with strategic recalibrations, the visit came as the United States faced growing competition from China's Belt and Road Initiative. The administration's aim was clear: to reconfigure economic alliances and neutralize regional threats from both Beijing and Tehran. The scope and substance of the agreements reached during the visit signalled a new chapter of US assertiveness designed to restore its economic and security presence across the region.
Qatar: Aviation Deals as a Tool of Influence
In Doha, an unprecedented agreement was announced: Qatar Airways' order of 210 Boeing aircraft, valued at $96bn. This deal transcended a simple economic transaction; it was a strategic alignment in which the aviation industry served as an instrument of soft power. The agreement ensured continued US aerospace dominance in Gulf markets, while denying China's COMAC, and Europe's Airbus, further opportunities.
Positioning Qatar as a pivotal ally in America's strategy to counter Chinese economic encroachment, this transaction also intertwined with American employment and technological sectors. It embodied a fusion of foreign policy and domestic industrial revival.
United Arab Emirates: AI, Semiconductors, and the Tech War
Perhaps even more strategically significant was the UAE's preliminary agreement to annually import 500,000 advanced semiconductor units from US firm NVIDIA. In the broader context of the US-China tech war, semiconductors had emerged as critical geopolitical assets. Through this agreement, Abu Dhabi not only secured access to cutting-edge American technology but also solidified its role as a regional hub for AI development and data infrastructure.
This alignment reinforced Washington's effort to exclude Chinese tech giants such as Huawei from vital Gulf networks. The move reshaped the digital power map of the Middle East, positioning the UAE as a counterweight to Chinese-backed technological initiatives across Iran and parts of the Levant.
Syria: The End of Isolation and the Limits of Rehabilitation
One of the most consequential — and controversial — outcomes of Trump's tour was the decision to lift all US sanctions on Syria. This followed the December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad and the appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa as interim leader. The conditional removal of sanctions, contingent upon chemical weapons disarmament and counterterrorism cooperation, served multiple US objectives.
Strategically, it diminished Iran's military and economic influence in Syria by opening avenues for US and Gulf investment in reconstruction. It also sought to pivot Damascus towards a moderate Gulf bloc, reducing Russian and Iranian leverage in the Levant. However, Syria's fragile stability posed significant risks, with the potential for proxy conflicts and power vacuums looming over reconstruction efforts.
Gaza: A Dangerous Vision of Demographic Engineering
The most morally contentious and geopolitically destabilizing element of Trump's Middle East policy was his proposal for Gaza. The plan envisioned transforming the territory into a 'freedom zone' for business and leisure, accompanied by the relocation of two million Palestinians to neighbouring states, a proposal that amounted to demographic engineering.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's endorsement of this plan revealed a troubling strategic convergence between Washington and Tel Aviv. International observers widely condemned the proposal as an act of ethnic cleansing, warning of the regional unrest it could spark. Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon — potential hosts for displaced Palestinians — were already grappling with domestic challenges that rendered such a plan politically untenable.
Moreover, this initiative reflected a deeper recalibration of US policy: prioritizing economic pacification over genuine political resolution and disengaging from the long-held two-state framework. The implications for regional stability, Palestinian rights, and America's moral standing were deeply concerning.
Israel: Fragile Alliances and Shifting Priorities
For Netanyahu, Trump's visit presented a double-edged sword. While the Gaza plan aligned with Israel's longstanding security ambitions, other aspects of the US strategy — including rapprochement with Syria and potential direct talks with Iran — complicated Israel's strategic calculus.
Netanyahu's cautious optimism about potential ceasefire prospects belied growing unease over Washington's readiness to engage adversaries and recalibrate alliances. The lifting of sanctions on Syria and the intensification of US-Gulf cooperation risked marginalizing Israel's role in shaping regional dynamics. Domestic political turbulence within Israel further undermined Netanyahu's capacity to manage these emerging fault lines.
China: The Unspoken Target of Economic Diplomacy
While Trump's public rhetoric emphasized regional stability and counterterrorism, the tour's underlying objective was unmistakable: containing China's growing influence in the Middle East. By clinching aerospace, technology, and infrastructure deals worth over $1.8trn, the United States not only revitalized its economic partnerships but also directly challenged Chinese investments in aviation, energy, and digital infrastructure.
China's Belt and Road projects in Iraq, Iran, and the Levant now faced the risk of exclusion from key Gulf markets. The semiconductor agreement with the UAE, in particular, struck at the heart of Beijing's ambitions to dominate AI and data infrastructure in the region.
President Trump's 2025 Gulf tour marked a watershed moment in the Middle East's geopolitical landscape. Through a calculated mix of colossal economic deals, strategic realignments, and deeply controversial initiatives, the United States sought to reclaim regional dominance while curbing the influence of China and Iran.
The ramifications are immense: the potential rehabilitation of Syria, a digitized Gulf, the sidelining of the Palestinian question, and increasingly fragile US-Israel relations. Whether these moves herald a sustainable new order or ignite fresh cycles of instability remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the Middle East stands at the threshold of a new and contested geopolitical era.
Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer