Can Rahul's Babbar Sher Gaurav Gogoi win Assam from Himanta?

India Today

2 days ago

"This time, there'll be a fight, we'll fight and win," said Gaurav Gogoi at a rally near Guwahati with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi by his side. Rahul then launched a direct attack at Himanta Biswa Sarma, saying the Assam CM and BJP leader would be packed off to jail by Congress "Babbar Shers (tigers)". The Congress has blown the bugle for the Assembly polls in Assam, which will be held early next year. But the big question is, will Gogoi prove to be the Babbar Sher and will the Congress rejig in the state, so close to the polls, pay off?advertisementGaurav Gogoi, a confidant of Rahul Gandhi, took over as President of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) in June, with less than a year for the election in 2026. The Congress might have come to believe that former state chief Bhupen Kumar Borah delivered all he could, and it needed a leader with bigger stature to take on Himanta and the BJP juggernaut in the state."Our motto for the 2026 assembly elections is 'Juj eikhon hobo', meaning the Congress party is willing to fight the BJP machinery in every village of Assam," Gaurav Gogoi told India Today Digital, showing the party's appetite for a fight where it has been trounced in back-to-back Assembly elections.
Gogoi, the deputy leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha, has a national aura. His fiery speech during the recent debate on Operation Sindoor was noticed by everyone. He also has a decent social media presence.The Congress MP from Jorhat has also come a long way from referring to fish as "maiki (female) aru mota (male)", revealing his initial disconnect with the state and its language.
Congress MP and Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi is felicitated by Assam Congress President Gaurav Gogoi during the party workers' meeting, at Chaygaon, near Guwahati, on July 16. (PTI Image)
CONGRESS EYE ON AHOM VOTES AND GAURAV GOGOI ELEVATIONOne of the reasons why Gogoi won the Jorhat seat, a family seat of his father and former CM Tarun Gogoi, was a consolidation of Ahom votes in his favour.Ahoms determine several seats in Upper Assam.Activism to secure benefits for the khilonjiya (indigenous) people of Assam has gained momentum, and the Congress might be trying to cash in on Gogoi's Ahom identity.Himanta Biswa Sarma has tried to counter this by focussing on Upper Assam, especially by declaring Dibrugarh as the second capital of the state. In July, he laid the foundation stones for projects worth over Rs 500 crore in Upper Assam.advertisementThe BJP's incessant attacks on Gaurav Gogoi over his wife's alleged Pakistan links might also be aimed at denting his Bhumiputra image.Sarma has time and again alleged that Gogoi's Britain-born wife, Elizabeth Colburn, had links with Pakistan's notorious spy agency ISI. The Congress MP has junked the allegations as a "smear campaign". Now, a special investigation team (SIT) of the Assam Police is probing the matter.Gogoi might be a budding national leader with good oratorial skills, but what the Congress desperately needs in Assam is grassroots connection and local leadership.The reality check for Gogoi came in the panchayat elections held in May this year.He failed to help secure even a single seat for the Congress in his Jorhat constituency.
On July 25, Himanta Biswa Sarma laid the foundation stone for ministerial and administrative offices in Upper Assam's Dibrugarh. (Image: HimantaBiswaSarma/X)
ASSAM PANCHAYAT POLLS AND CONGRESS, BJP LESSONSIt was BJP's Rajya Sabha MP, and Minister of State for External Affairs, Pabitra Margherita, who camped there and deprived Gogoi of any bragging rights.advertisement"Gaurav Gogoi neither maintains an active presence in the region nor shows any seriousness regarding public issues," said Sidhanku Ankur Barua, General Secretary of Assam BJP, who camped with the BJP MP in Jorhat during the May panchayat polls."Whether it's Gaurav Gogoi or the Congress party, they only become visible during election time, whereas the BJP and its allies consistently work at the grassroots level," Barua told India Today Digital.However, an Assembly election might be a different ball game altogether, and the Congress has taken lessons from the panchayat polls too.Niranjan Mahanta, a Jorhat-based journalist who works for the Assamese daily Amar Axom, said the BJP was accused of "using fear, threats, inducements and money power, along with manipulating the administration and police" in the local elections, especially in the seats under Gogoi's Lok Sabha constituency.Gaurav Gogoi said "the panchayat election results were a reality check" for the Congress."It showed clear gaps in our organisation and our preparation for the assembly elections. It also showed that the BJP will try every trick in the book to put pressure on local police and administration to obstruct the Congress party," Gogoi told India Today Digital.advertisementCONGRESS LAGS BJP IN ORGANISATIONAL SET UP IN ASSAMThe grassroots factor also matters because the Congress' presence disappeared at the bloc level in several districts after being trounced by the BJP in two successive elections.This is incredible because it was the Congress that ruled Assam for over 50 years and the BJP could form a government in the state only in 2016.
The BJP's meteoric rise in Assam is evident from the 2016 election tally, where it jumped from just 5 seats in 2011 to 86. While the BJP retained power in 2021 with 75 seats, Congress showed signs of recovery with 50 seats. The BJP contested with allies in 2016 and 2021, the Congress with partners in 2021. (Graphic: Author/India Today)
Building the Congress from the bottom in Assam is next to impossible in such a short time and Gogoi will have to rely on the existing infrastructure."Time is short without a doubt. That is why we are working relentlessly and without breaks. In the past one and a half months, we've already made several changes within the organisation and initiated new programmes to connect with the voters," said Gogoi, adding, "Our selfie with the booth worker campaign was a huge success".advertisementHowever, there are some complaints from Congress district-level leaders of them being ignored by Gogoi.That was a risk that came attached with him. Gogoi has acted as a national leader for the Congress without devoting much time to the party in the state.The BJP likes to highlight that."Gaurav Gogoi is often perceived as a product of Congress's dynastic politics. While he did secure a Lok Sabha seat, largely due to the goodwill generated by his father, his disconnect from the people and inability to grasp the aspirations of Jorhat's electorate have cost the Congress dearly," said BJP's Barua.Replacing Bhupen Kumar Borah with less than a year remaining for the polls has no doubt sparked a rift within the Congress. Though Borah has pledged his loyalties to the party and backed Gogoi, there haven't been any filial vows from others in his camp.They might be waiting to strike at the right moment.Borah was painstakingly building the party organisation from scratch as it was left in tatters after two Assembly election setbacks and an exodus of senior leaders. He had succeeded to a considerable extent in pulling the party out of its nadir.GAURAV GOGOI VS HIMANTA BISWA SARMA: A BATTLE PERSONALWhat the Congress has ensured by making Gaurav Gogoi the state chief is better media attention. That change is already visible. With media and social media attention, at least Gogoi will be in the minds of the voters.Gogoi is also a politician with a clean image, barring the ISI link that Himanta has been alleging. Going into the campaign, he is also the best leader to target Himanta aggressively and make that resonate in both new and traditional media."Gaurav Gogoi's public outreach is unique. As a result, after his taking over as the APCC President, an atmosphere of confidence among the party leaders and workers has been observed. New people are joining the party," said journalist Mahanta.
Gaurav Gogoi clicks a selfie with three booth presidents in Assam. He called them the soul of the Congress movement in the state. (Image: GauravGogoiAsm/X)
However, the initial euphoria has tapered off.One of the reasons is that Gogoi isn't aggressively attacking Sarma like the Congress did under Bora. He has mostly been reacting to and countering the punches thrown by Sarma.One thing that the Congress has going for itself in Assam is a 10-year anti-incumbency against the BJP. Gaurav will try to hold the government accountable on several counts."After 10 years of BJP's corrupt and authoritarian rule, the people of Assam want change," said Gaurav Gogoi."We are seeing nervous anxiety in the BJP camp. It reflects in their statements and desperate measures to divert the attention of the public from their failure. The feedback from all sections of Assamese society has been positive for us," Gogoi added.But Himanta, a master strategist regarded as the 'Chanakya of the Northeast' for making the region a BJP stronghold after defecting from the Congress, has always been in a campaign mode. Lovingly addressed as mama (maternal uncle), Sarma is a crowd-puller who effortlessly connects with people and is perceived to be a man of action. In the case of Assam, the Congress seems to be rather sure-footed. Unlike in the Delhi Assembly election, where it delayed a decision on the polls, in Assam, Rahul Gandhi jumped into action pretty early.On another level, the battle is personal for all three. Gaurav, Himanta and Rahul.Sarma was Tarun Gogoi's protege and won him the last CM's term. He saw Gaurav Gogoi being crowned the king-in-waiting as a betrayal by the party for his loyalty. He got no support from Rahul and left the party to cause it heavy damage.With Gogoi heading the Congress in Assam, there is no doubt that there will be fireworks. What no one is really sure about is if this will end with a bang or a whimper for the Congress as far as the Assembly polls are considered. There's no denying that Gaurav has the chance to emerge as Congress' Babbat Sher, but for now, with Himanta at the helm, the BJP looks ahead in the Assam race.- EndsMust Watch