2025 NFL MVP Favorites
(Editor's note: This article is from The Spun by Athlon Sports' 2025 Football Betting Guide — the perfect preseason reference companion for new bettors or sharps alike. Order your copy today online, or pick one up at retail racks and newsstands nationwide.)
In sports betting, there is a fine line between reckless and savvy longshot wagers. The NFL MVP award has crystallized this concept over the past decade, forcing oddsmakers to evolve and leaving foolish bettors throwing good money after bad bets.
The saga began in 2018, when Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm in his first full season as the Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback. The overnight sensation won the MVP, after having odds in the neighborhood of 100/1 the previous summer.
Sure enough, the very next season Lamar Jackson did the exact same thing for the Baltimore Ravens. He, too, began the year with 100/1 odds and ultimately hoisted the award.
This outlier two-year stretch disrupted what had become a predictable trend of established quarterbacks. However, normalcy was promptly restored, as Aaron Rodgers then went back-to-back for his third and fourth MVPs in Green Bay.
But some bettors are still hoping to catch lightning in a similar bottle this season. DraftKings head oddsmaker Johnny Avello has seen significant action on Justin Fields of the New York Jets (200/1) and Shedeur Sanders of the Cleveland Browns (150/1).
'This is all early money and speculation. It's guys with high odds and people taking a shot,' Avello said. 'They're only taking prices that will be long gone if guys start out well.'
I would classify those as reckless wagers and 'dead money'. Now, I might have said the same thing in 2018 and 2019 about the eventual winners, but at least the industry has evolved since then, forming a tighter market. Oddsmakers have learned a great deal about creating odds for awards, which is very different from generating odds for actual games.
'I used to not like it but it's been really good because the odds have become much more sophisticated than they were in the beginning,' said SuperBook VP of Risk Management Ed Salmons, a veteran NFL oddsmaker. 'Just following it for the past eight years, it's easier to do now and it's a staple out there. It's definitely something we book every year, and for the most part, we do pretty well with it.'
Essentially, oddsmakers have learned from their mistakes with Mahomes and Jackson. No longer will sportsbooks offer such long odds for a quarterback of a potentially high-powered offense. By comparison, QBs with longshot odds entering the 2025 season include Brock Purdy (25/1), Jared Goff (31/1), and Trevor Lawrence (40/1).
The usual suspects are the betting favorites with Jackson leading the way with consensus +500 odds. Reigning MVP Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Mahomes are right behind at +600, while Jayden Daniels (+850) has entered the mix in just his second season.
The shortest odds for any non-quarterback is Saquon Barkley with consensus 50/1 odds. He was a finalist last season with 2,005 rushing yards, the eighth-most in NFL history, but ultimately a quarterback won the MVP for the 12th straight year.
Salmons firmly believes a quarterback will win MVP for the rest of time, given how pass-happy the NFL has become over the years. 'All leagues have gravitated toward the same stuff. A kicker (Mark Moseley) won in 1982. Can you imagine a kicker winning MVP right now?'
2025 Preseason NFL MVP Odds
Here are the most recent NFL MVP odds from bet365 (editor's note: these odds are updated from odds that appear in the magazine):
Lamar Jackson
+500
Josh Allen
+550
Joe Burrow
+600
Patrick Mahomes
+650
Jayden Daniels
+850
Jalen Hurts
+1800
Justin Herbert
+1800
Jordan Love
+2200
C.J. Stroud
+2500
Baker Mayfield
+2500
Brock Purdy
+2800
Caleb Williams
+3300
Jared Goff
+3300
Dak Prescott
+3500
Matthew Stafford
+3500
Kyler Murray
+4000
Trevor Lawrence
+4500
Bo Nix
+5000
Drake Maye
+5000
Aaron Rodgers
+6000
2025 NFL MVP Favorites first appeared on The Spun on Aug 19, 2025
This story was originally reported by The Spun on Aug 19, 2025, where it first appeared.
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