Sell UAL Stock Ahead Of Its Upcoming Earnings?
United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) is set to publish its earnings report on Thursday, July 17, 2025. For traders who focus on events, analyzing historical stock performance in relation to earnings announcements can be an effective strategy, though the actual results relative to consensus estimates will ultimately determine the stock's immediate response.
Over the past five years, UAL stock has often posted negative one-day returns following earnings releases. In 60% of cases, the stock has dropped, with a median negative return of -4.0% and a maximum one-day decline of -10.2%.
Traders can approach this event in two different ways:
Current consensus forecasts indicate that United Airlines will report earnings of $3.88 per share on revenue of $15.33 billion. This is in contrast to the same quarter last year, which saw earnings of $4.14 per share on revenue of $14.99 billion.
From a fundamental standpoint, United Airlines currently has a market capitalization of $29 billion. In the last twelve months, the company produced $58 billion in revenue, with $5.6 billion in operating profits and a net income of $3.7 billion, reflecting operational success. That being said, if you are looking for growth with less volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having surpassed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Additionally, check out – Trump's Russia Math, Simplified.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
United Airlines' Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Further details regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
UAL 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though it may not be effective if the correlation is weak) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and make the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader could take a "long" position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
UAL Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the stock reaction following earnings. Indeed, the pricing might start prior to the earnings announcement. Here is some historical data regarding the post-earnings performance of United Airlines stock compared with the stock performance of competitors that announced earnings shortly before United Airlines. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent one-day (1D) returns post-earnings.
UAL Correlation With Peer Earnings
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire growth with a smoother experience compared to an individual stock like United Airlines, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since its inception.
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