Pre-Owned Watch Sales Spiked by 160% in April Ahead of Trump's Potential Tariffs
Pre-owned Rolexes, Patek Philippes, and more watches were flying off the market last month.
In the wake of President Trump's potential tariffs, which were announced in early April, watch collectors responded by snapping up pre-owned timepieces on the secondary market, Bloomberg reported.
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Subdial—a watch dealer and trading platform—usually sees a rush of purchases once payday comes around at the month's end. This time, though, was a little bit different: The site saw its sales jump a whopping 160 percent higher than normal levels, towering over the typical payday increase of 112 percent of other months this year. The U.S. and the U.K. in particular saw an abundance of growth, Christy Davis, Subdial's founder, told Bloomberg.
A similar response to the administration's potential tariffs can be seen in Swiss watch exports, too. Last month, watchmakers and retailers across the world were clamoring to get their hands on timepieces from Switzerland before the levies began. As a result, 1.3 million watches—totaling $3 billion—left the European country in April, an 18 percent increase from the same time last year. The U.S., once again, had a strong reaction to Trump's announcement, with stateside exports skyrocketing a whopping 149 percent during the month. The hike is likely a direct response to the tariffs and not indicative of an increase demand, Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at investment firm Vontobel, told Bloomberg at the time. As for the rest of world, watch exports actually dropped by 6.4 percent in April.
This latest pre-owned Rollie hot streak comes after reports that the demand for gold Rolexes on the secondary market is on the rise, with a trio of timepieces from the brand jumping the most spots on Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index since its inception.
The prices of pre-owned Rolexes, as well as Patek Philippes, fell to a three-year low in 2024 after ballooning during the pandemic lockdowns. Through May, Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index has risen about 5.3 percent, similar to what the market looked like last October, according to the publication. How the secondary market will respond to more levies is an open question. In the meantime, watch obsessives are sure to stay tuned.
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CNBC
3 minutes ago
- CNBC
Why the stock market continues to hold up in the face of uncertain trade policy
It's only fair to give the stock market credit for hanging tough through the 2025 uncertainty storm. But it means the market is now taking credit in advance for a clearer and more favorable policy and economic picture developing from here. What does hanging tough look like? The S & P 500 index fought its way back to about flat after one of its worst-ever starts to a year through the first week of April. The index has also been hanging around the same patch of the field, spending all of the past two weeks and much of the last seven months in the range travelled on a single day, Nov. 6, 2024. The lines on the chart span the distance traveled in that initial one-session rally after Election Day. Since then, two quarters of much better than expected aggregate earnings have entered the books, offset by a confidence crash following the maximalist tariff proposals of April 2 and the abiding limbo state of the various overlapping pauses, deadlines and threats. Evidence that the market is implicitly assuming a fair degree of trade-war de-escalation could be seen in the market's relatively modest response both to President Trump's threat of a 50% tariff on imports from the EU just over a week ago, as well as its muted celebration when that measure was paused — or when a trade court ruled most of the global tariffs appear unlawful. Friday's flutter of reports about stalled talks with China and the countries' mutual accusations of bad faith drew a shrug from the tape, the S & P finishing flat to preserve a 1.9% weekly gain. Bespoke Investment Group on Friday reported that while the S & P 500 badly underperformed in March and April on days when trade headlines dominated the news, in May the market has largely ignored them. The reams of Wall Street strategy work attempting to handicap the trade-policy outcomes is coalescing around the 10% global baseline duties plus something higher for China and some targeted sectors, resulting in a blended rate somewhere above 15%. That's a level of transactional friction in the global economy that is multiples higher than long-prevailing rates, yet less decisively scary than the punitive plan that crashed the market and created the early-April buying opportunity, at the moment of peak uncertainty. Why the stock market is holding near record Among the reasons stocks have held within a few percent of record highs as it digested the huge relief rally the past couple of weeks is the here-and-now economic readings have mostly been reassuring: Upward leakage in continuing unemployment claims but no spike in layoffs. Generally steady if uninspiring consumer activity, with mostly benign inflation data. A badly stuck housing market, but no more so than a few months ago. Calm restored in the Treasury market, yields settling back slightly to quiet the overexcited talk about fiscal fissures. All of the numbers carry a bold-faced asterisk for being either not fully reflective of tariff effects or helped temporarily by some pull-forward of demand to get ahead of tariffs. Here again, the market is supported by steady fundamentals, while also by extension pricing in an expectation that they will persist. Corporate-credit spreads have mostly round-tripped back to unconcerning levels, non-U.S. stocks are in solid uptrends and the industrial sector has returned to its former highs. Not a market clenched in anticipation of a significant air pocket in growth. It's hard to ignore the other tailwind for the tape, the reassertion of the mega-cap growth cohort as relative leaders. Here's the Magnificent Seven relative to the equal-weighted S & P 500. Back to the July 2024 crest, not quite up to the fourth-quarter exuberance peak. Someone in the business of diagramming head-and-shoulders topping patterns might have something to offer here, but for now it's enough to say the market has again turned to the giants for support in a time of need. While the scolds who think index progress should come from the many over the few will lament this shift, the reality is the brute force of superior profit growth among the dominant digital platform companies is hard to resist. Mag 7, tech bid With Nvidia completing the reporting period for the megas, FactSet shows the group notched a 27% earnings jump from the year earlier, 11 percentage points head of forecasts, with the remainder of the S & P 500 growing a third as quickly. Even within the Mag7, it's not the cleanest story. FactSet notes that consensus is projecting annual profit-growth rates will step down toward 10% over the next few quarters. I've pointed out here recently that the biggest earners, such as Microsoft and Alphabet , are spending so heavily on AI capacity that free-cash-flow growth is on hiatus this year. And the share-price action is somewhat spotty, too. Apple is a conspicuous laggard, the stock on the verge of breaking down below a former peak from almost two years ago. AAPL 5Y mountain Apple, 5 years Nvidia, meantime, has lost its post-earnings pop, the stock back to where it closed Wednesday just before what was taken as reassuring forward guidance. Alphabet has been kept in the penalty box, its valuation now at a significant discount to the broad market, as investors fear what AI might do to its core profit stream from search. Tesla has always been an uncomfortable fit in the Mag7, there only because of its massive market value and intermittent fits of headlong stock momentum. It does not have massive profitability derived from an pervasive asset-light network platform. Its earnings are set to be lower today than three years ago and forecasts have been slashed for this year and next. But the stock is useful as a gauge of investors' collective willingness to believe in Elon Musk's promised version of the future. Well more than half of its $1.1 trillion in market capitalization is attributable not to the auto and energy-storage business that produce all Tesla revenue, but to the perpetually "almost there" robotaxi and humanoid-robot ventures that get the faithful excited. While the market credits Tesla today with hundreds of billions in value for such unproven gambits, Alphabet's $2 trillion market cap reflects very little credit for the more-advanced Waymo robotaxi division. The market likes a pure play and a good storyteller, not to say meme-spinner. For now, this current of lavishly capitalized belief is running only through narrow channels of the market, into Tesla and Palantir and CoreWeave , with tributaries into long-shot quantum-computing names with such lengthy timelines for judging success that traders choose not even to worry about it. This revival of the "transformative tech" bid — along with the resilience of hard macro data and glass-half-full take on how tariffs will interact with the economy — helps account for the tape's ability to hold up during this in-between phase for trade policy and with the Federal Reserve resolutely in wait-and-see mode. It means that two months after universal panic over maximum uncertainty created a "Close your eyes and buy" moment, it's now time to hold while keeping eyes wide open for how reality takes shape relative to fairly benign expectations.


Newsweek
7 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Social Security Checks Could Shrink for 450,000 Americans in June
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Almost half a million Americans could see smaller Social Security payments this month if they are behind on federal student loan repayments. Why It Matters Earlier this year, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found that some 450,000 Americans aged 62 and older were in default on their student loan payments, with many of them likely to be collecting Social Security checks. In recent years, those who had fallen behind on payments were protected from collections because of coronavirus-era provisions. However, the Trump administration confirmed in April that aggressive debt collection practices would resume at the beginning of May. What To Know As of May 5, the White House resumed these offsets for borrowers in default, including automatic deductions from Social Security payments. Under the Treasury Offset Program, the federal government can withhold up to 15 percent of a person's Social Security benefits to recover defaulted federal student loans. For beneficiaries receiving the average $1,976 monthly payment from the Social Security Administration, if their benefit was garnished by 15 percent, they would lose $296.40 every month. Millions of beneficiaries across the country rely on Social Security payments for a considerable chunk, if not all, of their income in later life. So garnishment could have a significant effect on personal finances. But there are options available for those needing to get back on track with their federal loans. "A borrower who has failed to pay on their federal student loan is considered in default when the loan delinquency reaches 270 days past due," Tom O'Hare, a holistic college adviser at Get College Going, told Newsweek. "The loan is generally reassigned from loan servicers to a collection agency that works on behalf of the federal government to either litigate or implement stringent collection recovery practices, including wage garnishment and deduction from Social Security payments," he continued. A stock image of a person pulling U.S. dollar bills from a wallet. A stock image of a person pulling U.S. dollar bills from a wallet. GETTY How Can I Make Payments? To keep yourself clear of garnishment, you can set up a payment plan. "First, reach out to your loan servicer. They can guide you through available options like deferment, forbearance, or creating a flexible repayment plan," Bethany Hubert, a financial aid specialist at Earnest, told Newsweek. "Programs like income-driven repayment can adjust your monthly payment to better match your budget." Effects of Not Paying If you remain in default on your loans, Social Security garnishment may be only one of your worries. Failure to pay can mean you lose access to important benefits, such as deferment, forbearance and the ability to choose a repayment plan that fits your financial situation. You also become ineligible for further federal student aid, including Pell Grants and new student loans, which could limit your ability to continue your education. The default is reported to credit bureaus, which can significantly damage your credit score. In turn, this can affect your ability to finance major purchases, such as a car or home, and can even prevent you from obtaining credit cards. Rebuilding your credit may also take several years. What People Are Saying Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said in a statement on May 5: "As we begin to help defaulted borrowers back into repayment, we must also fix a broken higher education finance system that has put upward pressure on tuition rates without ensuring that colleges and universities are delivering a high-value degree to students. "For too long, insufficient transparency and accountability structures have allowed U.S. universities to saddle students with enormous debt loads without paying enough attention to whether their own graduates are truly prepared to succeed in the labor market." Mike Pierce, the executive director for the Student Borrower Protection Center, said in a statement on April 21: "For 5 million people in default, federal law gives borrowers a way out of default and the right to make loan payments they can afford. Since February, Donald Trump and Linda McMahon have blocked these borrowers' path out of default and are now feeding them into the maw of the government debt collection machine. This is cruel, unnecessary, and will further fan the flames of economic chaos for working families across this country." What Happens Next Further changes to student loans are likely on the way. In an effort to streamline student loan repayment, the Trump administration is considering a sweeping overhaul of its federal loan programs, cutting back the available income-driven repayment options to two. The plans were put forward in the GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the House of Representatives passed late last month.


CNBC
7 minutes ago
- CNBC
See where seniors face the longest travel times to get to their local Social Security offices
A new Social Security Administration policy will require nearly 2 million additional beneficiaries to visit the agency's offices each year to change their direct deposit information, according to agency estimates. That's often not a quick trip: Nearly one-quarter of seniors live more than an hour away from their local Social Security field office, according to a new analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Meanwhile, half of seniors need to drive for at least 33 minutes without traffic to get to their Social Security office. The policy change will lead to more than 1 million hours of travel per year, according to the nonpartisan policy and research institute. The Social Security Administration said the new direct deposit requirements would curb fraud, which it said it's been working to root out in coordination with the Trump administration's so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Since 2023, the agency has experienced a "marked increase" in allegations of direct deposit fraud, a Social Security Administration official said via email. In March, SSA implemented enhanced fraud protection for direct deposit changes. Between March 29 and April 26, the enhanced fraud protection flagged more than 20,000 Social Security numbers where phone direct deposit requests failed security measures that check for multiple fraud indicators. Of the direct deposit transactions flagged, 61% to 72% of individuals never resubmitted their requests, a "strong indicator" that many of those attempts may not have been legitimate, according to the SSA official. The agency estimates $19.9 million in losses were avoided as a result of the enhanced safety measures. However, advocates say the change is an overreaction, given the scale of such fraud. The Social Security Administration has said about 40% of direct deposit fraud comes from phone calls attempting to change direct deposit information. In early 2024, anti-fraud officials at the agency told The New York Times that about 2,000 beneficiaries had their direct deposits redirected over the prior year. By those estimates, that would mean just 800 of those people experienced direct deposit fraud by phone, according to Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Yet the agency is now requiring about 2 million elderly and disabled individuals to visit its offices to prevent such fraud, she said. More from Personal Finance:What the House GOP budget bill means for your moneyTrump tariffs create the 'perfect storm' for scamsSocial Security COLA for 2026 projected to be lowest in years To help ensure benefit payments are not misdirected, the Social Security Administration has tightened beneficiaries' ability to change their bank information over the phone. As of April 28, individuals who want to change their direct deposit information will need to log into or create a personal My Social Security online account and obtain a one-time code before they call the agency's 800 number. Individuals who cannot use online or automatic enrollment services will need to visit a local field office to verify their identity in person. While the agency encourages those individuals to make an appointment, it is also possible to walk in for direct deposit changes. Individuals who want to change their direct deposit information may also use automatic enrollment services through their bank. To do so, individuals need to contact their bank directly. Not all financial institutions participate in this process, according to SSA. Because many seniors or disabled individuals do not have internet service, computers or smart phones — or if they do, may not know how to use those resources — many will likely have to make an in-person visit to their local Social Security office. About 6 million seniors don't drive, while almost 8 million older Americans have a medical condition or disability that makes it difficult for them to travel, according to CBPP research. In-person appointments may be burdensome for beneficiaries who face long travel times to get to their nearest Social Security office, according to the CBPP analysis. In 31 states, more than 25% of seniors face travel times of more than an hour to get to their local field office. In certain less-populated states, more than 40% of seniors would need to drive more than an hour. Those include Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. In other states, around 25% to 39% of seniors would need to travel over an hour. That includes Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Virginia. Residents of other states may also face a burden if they do not live near their closest Social Security field office. The analysis is a conservative estimate to help assess how much time it may cost individuals who are affected by the policy, according to Devin O'Connor, senior fellow at the CBPP. For example, it doesn't take into account the time spent getting an appointment to visit a Social Security office and the time spent waiting for the appointment, he said. The CBPP's analysis was created with information from multiple sources including the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, SSA field office location data, the OpenTimes travel time database and the Census Bureau's 2023 American Community Survey. The Social Security Administration has not independently validated the data, the agency said via email in response to a request for comment. Notably, the new direct deposit requirements come as the Social Security Administration has moved to cut its work force by about 7,000 employees, reductions that have led some of the agency's field offices to be "understaffed," O'Connor said. However, while it had been reported that DOGE planned to close Social Security field offices to help curb spending, thus far that has largely not happened, he said. The Social Security Administration has denied it plans to close local field offices. Individuals who need to visit a Social Security field office will also be confronted by long wait times for appointments. Currently, just 43% of individuals are able to get a benefit appointment within 28 days, Social Security Administration data shows. The agency's new policy to limit phone transactions has been scaled back. The agency had proposed limiting the ability to apply for benefits over the phone, but after it received pushback from organizations including the AARP, the agency changed that policy to limit only direct deposit transactions.