UNC basketball vs San Diego State prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament First Four
UNC basketball vs San Diego State prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament First Four
UNC basketball will enter the 2025 NCAA Tournament with its lowest seed in program history.
The 11th-seeded Tar Heels (22-13) were revealed as the final at-large bid on the Selection Show, meaning they'll start March Madness in Dayton for the First Four on Tuesday (9:10 p.m., TruTV).
UNC plays No. 11 seed San Diego State (21-9), with the winner earning a matchup with No. 6 seed Ole Miss (22-11) in the round of 64 on Friday (4:05 p.m., TNT) in Milwaukee as part of the South Region.
BUY UNC FIRST FOUR TICKETS
The Tar Heels are making their 54th NCAA Tournament appearance and are 2-0 against the Aztecs, but the programs haven't played since 1990. Both meetings were in the regular season under head coach Dean Smith. San Diego State is in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight season and head coach Brian Dutcher has been to six of the seven March Madness events in his tenure.
MARCH MADNESS PICKS: Who will win March Madness? NCAA Tournament bracket predictions, Final Four picks
HOW UNC GOT IN: Why did UNC basketball make the NCAA Tournament, First Four of March Madness?
SURVIVOR POOL: Free to enter. $2,500 to win. Can you survive the madness?
Here are some players to watch and a score prediction for the First Four matchup between UNC and San Diego State.
RJ Davis gets final run with UNC basketball in March Madness
Following a 4-for-10 shooting performance in an ACC Tournament loss to Duke, fifth-year guard RJ Davis will get a shot at one final run in March Madness with the Tar Heels. Davis averaged 15.1 points across his first 10 NCAA Tournament games. He had 20 or more points in two of three March Madness games as a senior, leading the Tar Heels to the Sweet 16. But an 0-for-9 shooting night from 3-point range against Alabama left a sour taste in his mouth. The New York guard will have an opportunity to make a new memory this March.
Jae'Lyn Withers chance for redemption
Jae'Lyn Withers was among the main reasons UNC remained in the mix for a March Madness bid. With a 43.9% clip from beyond the arc, Withers has filled the all-important 4 spot in the lineup for head coach Hubert Davis. But Withers was in the spotlight for the wrong reasons against Duke, committing a lane violation that proved costly during UNC's comeback bid against the Blue Devils. His teammates rallied around him in that moment. Now, like Davis, Withers will play in the NCAA Tournament with a chance to make that mistake a distant memory.
Ven-Allen Lubin vs Magoon Gwath in matchup for UNC vs San Diego State
San Diego State 7-footer Magoon Gwath — the Mountain West freshman of the year and defensive player of the year — hyperextended his right knee and has missed the last five games for the Aztecs. Gwath could be back for the First Four, but whether he plays or not, UNC's Ven-Allen Lubin should ride a wave of confidence into the Big Dance. Lubin had three straight double-doubles in the ACC Tournament, averaging 15.6 points and 11 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-8 forward will have to stay in attack mode against an SDSU defense that leads the nation in block percentage (18.5%) and is 13th nationally in efficiency.
UNC vs San Diego State odds in NCAA bracket
Game lines and odds from BetMGM will be posted as they become available.
Spread: UNC is a 4.5-point favorite
Over/under: 143.5 points
Moneyline: UNC (-198), San Diego State (+164)
UNC vs San Diego State prediction: March Madness First Four
UNC 75, San Diego State 69: The Tar Heels almost missed out on a chance to be a part of March Madness. Following their late-game struggles in a loss to Duke, UNC will grow from that experience to start the Big Dance with a big win. The Aztecs are elite defensively, but they won't quite score enough to keep up with UNC.
Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.
We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn't influence our coverage.
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