Roy Cooper's Chances of Flipping North Carolina's GOP Senate Seat—Polls
A new poll of North Carolina voters showed that former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, would be tied with a generic Republican in the state's 2026 Senate race.
Matt Mercer, communications director for the North Carolina GOP, told Newsweek the poll "confirms former Gov. Roy Cooper can't run away from his record of failures in North Carolina." Mallory Payne, spokesperson for the North Carolina Democratic Party, told Newsweek the Republican candidate will have to "answer for gutting health care for more than 650,000 North Carolinians."
Why It Matters
North Carolina, a state that has delivered Republicans' narrow victories in recent federal elections, is expected to be home to one of the most competitive Senate races in 2026 as Democrats hope to flip a handful of seats in Congress's upper chamber. Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not running for reelection, leaving the competitive seat open next November. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats view North Carolina as a top flip opportunity as they face a potentially challenging Senate map.
Democrats are hoping Cooper, who was fairly popular in the state during his tenure in the governorship, will jump into the race and bolster their chances of winning. But the new poll from co/efficient suggests the race could be competitive even with a Cooper candidacy.
What to Know
The poll asked respondents about who they would support between Cooper and a Republican candidate, without asking questions on specific matchups. It found that 48 percent would support both Cooper and the Republican, with 4 percent remaining undecided.
On the other hand, Cooper held a lead in a hypothetical matchup against Tillis. It found that if Tillis decided to run, he would have 31 percent of the vote, while Cooper received 49 percent support; 20 percent were undecided, according to the poll.
Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper speaks in Raleigh, North Carolina on June 28, 2024.
Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper speaks in Raleigh, North Carolina on June 28, 2024.The poll surveyed 694 likely voters from July 10 to July 14, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.71 percentage points.
Steven Greene, a professor of political science at North Carolina State University, told Newsweek confirms the race will be competitive.
"Cooper is a popular former governor with a good brand. I think if Cooper chooses to run, you would have to consider him a slight favorite (this really is a baseline 50-50 race) to win. If Cooper does not run, I think Jeff Jackson is a very strong candidate, but he lacks the statewide name recognition and support that Cooper has," he said.
Jackson, the state's Democratic attorney general, has said he would support Cooper if he chooses to run in an interview with WRAL earlier in July.
The Democratic candidate, whether it's Cooper or another candidate, will need to get "across that plurality where they just keep narrowly falling short," and President Donald Trump's approval rating could key, he said.
"We are pretty close to a 50-50 state, but one in which Republican Senate candidates keep narrowly winning closely-contested races. I think the key for the Democratic candidate is just how much the political environment may have turned against President Trump in 2026. If inflation is a problem and Trump's approval has fallen into the 30's, a Democrat would be the favorite," he said.
North Carolina was a key battleground in 2024, but Trump still narrowly carried it with 51 percent of the vote, compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris' 47.8 percent. Democrats have made federal races competitive but have come up short in recent years, though Republicans have struggled in gubernatorial elections.
A Change Research/Carolina Forward poll from earlier this year showed Cooper with a lead over Tillis before he opted against running. Forty-six percent of respondents said they planned to back Cooper, while 44 percent said they were inclined to support Tillis. That poll surveyed 867 likely voters from March 31 to April 4, 2025.
What People Are Saying
Mallory Payne, spokesperson for the North Carolina Democratic Party, told Newsweek: "The GOP's toxic Medicaid cuts will be at the forefront of the U.S. Senate race in 2026, especially after Thom Tillis chose to retire rather than have to run on a plan that will devastate North Carolina families. No matter who jumps into the GOP primary, they will have to answer for gutting health care for more than 650,000 North Carolinians – and voters will hold them accountable at the ballot box and flip this seat next November."
Matt Mercer, communications director for the North Carolina GOP, told Newsweek: "This poll confirms former Gov. Roy Cooper can't run away from his record of failures in North Carolina. A 40-year career politician isn't what voters are looking for from their next U.S. Senator. Worse for Cooper, this race will be a referendum on his handling of hurricane response in eastern and western North Carolina. We look forward to holding this seat and continuing to work with President Trump for America First policies that benefit North Carolina families."
Steven Greene, a professor of political science at North Carolina State University, told Newsweek: "If the economy is doing pretty well and Trump's approval remains in the mid-40's, that's a much tougher environment for the Democrat. Obviously, this national context will very much affect the Republican nominee as well. The additional interesting issue on that side is will the Republicans be able to nominate the most electable general election candidate, or will their primary saddle them with a less electable figure. We have seen Republicans lose many winnable Senate races in the past 10-15 years due to extreme candidates winning primaries."
What Happens Next
Both Democratic and Republican candidates could announce in the coming months. Currently, the Cook Political Report classifies the race as a pure toss up.
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