UFC on ESPN 64: Brandon Moreno seeks end to Mexico skid
The UFC makes its seventh trip to Mexico with Saturday's card at Arena CDMX that features a flyweight fight between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg.
Moreno, 31, is coming off a win over Amir Albazi in November, but the two-time former flyweight champ is 0-2-1 in three previous UFC fights in his home country. That includes a split decision loss to Brandon Royval in February 2024 before rebounding against Albazi.
"Right now, I feel in an amazing balance," Moreno told reporters this week. "I feel I'm in the best shape of my life. I feel in my prime, and I have to show it. I have to execute, like my coaches say, but I'm ready to do it."
Erceg arrives in Mexico City riding a two-fight losing streak after opening 2024 with a knockout of Matt Schnell. The 29-year-old dropped a title fight against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro before getting dropped by Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in Australia.
Moreno (22-8-2 MMA, 10-4-2 UFC) opened as the -185 favorite at BetMGM, but those odds have shortened even further to -250 as he has been backed by 79 percent of the money. The total bets are almost split, with Erceg (12-3, 3-2) drawing 48 percent as the +200 underdog.
"I know the state of the flyweight division right now. It's a lot of fighters, a lot of contenders, trying to get the opportunity for the title," Moreno said. "I know I was the champion. I know I had the opportunity before.
"So I was very, very conscious to understand that maybe I had to fight one or two more times in the future."
OTHER MAIN CARD MATCHES
MANUEL TORRES (15-3, 3-1) vs. DREW DOBER (27-14, 13-10)
The co-main event is a lightweight fight. Torres graduated from Dana White's Contender Series in 2021 and won his first three UFC fights. However, he's coming off a loss to Ignacio Bahamondes at UFC 306 in September.
Dober, 36, is one of the elder statesmen in the division. He has dropped three of his past four fights, including a loss to Jean Silva in his hometown of Denver last summer.
The tightest fight on the main card, Dober has drawn 60 percent of the bets as the -125 favorite while Torres has been backed by 56 percent of the money at +105.
KELVIN GASTELUM (18-9, 13-9) vs. JOE PYFER (13-3, 4-1)
Gastelum returns to the middleweight division, where he is 7-6 with one no contest. The former title contender is seeking to reestablish himself. Pyfer split a pair of fights last year, and is coming off a knockout win over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303.
Gastelum opened as one of the biggest underdogs on the card but has seen his odds shift from +400 to +240 while being backed by 65 percent of the bets. Pyfer has still been supported by 84 percent of the money at -300.
RAUL ROSAS JR. (10-1, 4-1) vs. VINCE MORALES (11-9, 3-7)
The 20-year-old Rosas is already making his sixth UFC appearance in a bantamweight fight against promotion veteran Morales. Another DWCS alum, Rosas is coming off a loss to Mongolia's Aori Qileng at UFC 306, while the 34-year-old Morales lost a decision to Elijah Smith last month.
Rosas has drawn one-sided support from the public, with 65 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money backing him to beat Morales (+350).
DAVID MARTINEZ (11-1, 0-0) vs. SAIMON OLIVEIRA (18-5, 0-2)
Martinez is fighting in his home country for his UFC debut, while Oliveira steps into the Octagon for the first time in more than two years. Oliveira, 33, hasn't fought since being stopped by Daniel Marcos at UFC 283.
Martinez is the heavy -450 favorite and leads the main card with 92 percent of the money backing him to win. However, that has led to Oliveira being backed by 66 percent of the total bets at +350.
RONALDO RODRIGUEZ (17-2, 2-0) vs. KEVIN BORJAS (9-3, 0-2)
The main card begins in the flyweight division. Rodriguez, 25, is a rising star who has won his first two fights in the division. "Lazy Boy" is also very popular, having amassed more than 2 million followers on Instagram despite having only two fights on his UFC resume.
Borjas has begun his UFC career going the opposite direction with losses to Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa, but is still considered a promising flyweight.
That is represented by Borjas receiving 60 percent of the bets and 57 percent of the money at +130, while Rodriguez is the -155 favorite.
--Field Level Media
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- New York Times
UFC 316 odds, predictions: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley headlines a card with two belts on the line
The UFC is back with two title fights and a ton of high-level matchups. Both the men's and women's bantamweight belts will be decided on Saturday night at UFC 316. I'll be breaking down both title fights and an additional matchup from the card below, but if you'd like to chat about any extra matchups, feel free to leave a comment! Advertisement Sean O'Malley will be chasing the return of his championship status against Merab Dvalishvili this weekend in a rematch that resulted in the last hand-changing of the bantamweight belt. I thought Dvalishvili handily won the first time around, and I was betting on that happening, though the scorecards were ultimately competitive. O'Malley was and is the better boxer. I've always loved his ability to strike at a high rate while moving forward and backward, which is a showcase of O'Malley's outstanding boxing cardio. We've seen him top out at 230 significant strikes on multiple occasions. He's also showcased a lot more power than Dvalishvili and has legitimate knockout upside against any opponent in the division. That includes Dvalishvili, who's been tagged on more than one occasion and wobbled badly against Marlon Moraes back in 2021. However, Dvalishvili is a generational athlete with strong wrestling, and there's not much O'Malley can do about it. Particularly, O'Malley isn't a good enough wrestler to stop Dvalishvili taking him down and holding onto him. In the first fight, Dvalishvili landed six takedowns on 15 attempts and earned 10 minutes of control. Honestly, I think he carries upside for more. O'Malley's first-level takedown defense is not nearly good enough, and Dvalishvili is far more physical in the clinch, where he can hang on to O'Malley and beat him up. At distance, Dvalishvili was not fighting in boxing range. O'Malley couldn't land head-strikes and was afraid to kick in fear of getting taken down. He did hurt Dvalishvili to the body in the fifth round, and possibly could have earned a TKO stoppage had the next couple of minutes gone perfectly. My best guess is that O'Malley will try to kick and attack the body more frequently this time. Despite leaving social media and training wrestling, I just don't think he can catch up to Dvalishvili's level. He may limit the wrestling attack, but I don't think he can stop it completely. Ultimately, he needs to find a way to do more damage, and I think he'll view that as chasing the body strikes earlier in the fight. Advertisement It's a difficult ask for O'Malley, and I think Dvalishvili is the deserved favorite at -275. I don't see the point in betting that outright, though I wouldn't be shocked if it still looked like value in hindsight. I'd much rather play his decision prop, which you can find at -170. I think that's clearly the most realistic path to victory for Dvalishvili. I can understand still being cautious with the price, but I don't mind it. O'Malley has a shot at a decision win based on the outcome of the first fight. He'll need to do more damage, and there's some KO equity mixed in there as well. I'd never fully count him out, but it's a slim likelihood unless he can prove much more efficient as a defensive wrestler and scrambler, or hits the one-shot kill. The women's bantamweight championship is one of the more intriguing matchups in quite some time, largely because Kayla Harrison is involved and is generally expected to come home with the title. Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, winning in 2012 and 2016. She's 18-1 as a pro in MMA and won multiple world championships in the Professional Fighters League before moving over to the UFC in 2024. The craziest part is that she typically fights at 155 pounds, but is having to drop multiple weight classes to 135 pounds in order to compete. She's looked very good doing so in both of her UFC appearances. Needless to say, she's a physical beast for this division, which pairs very well with her elite judo skills. On the other side, Julianna Peña clawed her way back to a second title after losing it to Amanda Nunes in 2022. She scraped together a split decision against Raquel Pennington in October. Peña is a pest in a positive way. She is willing to engage and throw volume on the feet. She is willing to clinch and grapple. She's fairly skillful as a submission grappler, and even on the bottom, Peña can threaten and make the top fighter work. She's just not particularly processed, and I think her defense is very poor. She cannot defend takedowns, and her defensive rate is 23 percent, which will be a major problem in this particular matchup. That's the biggest hurdle I can't overcome in matchup analysis. Harrison is going to be levels ahead of Peña physically, and Peña is particularly bad at Harrison's primary strength, which is the art of landing takedowns. The question becomes whether Peña can win despite getting taken down with ease. The answer is it's not likely, but possible. One avenue could be with cardio. Harrison cutting weight could make her tired over 25 minutes, which we have seen before in PFL. Perhaps Peña could mount a late comeback with a cardio edge, which is how she won her first title against Nunes. (It was early in the fight, but Nunes was dead tired.) Advertisement Otherwise, Peña will have limited options. She'll attack with submissions from her back. On the feet, Peña is probably the better pure striker, and Harrison isn't particularly effective there. Peña could win rounds or swarm on Harrison if she's tired. I just don't think Harrison is likely to get extremely tired here because the takedowns should come easily, and I highly doubt Peña can get up from her back with ease. Harrison lands nasty ground-and-pound, and she should cleanly win early rounds. I do have some trepidation on late-round dynamics, but I think the most likely outcome is Harrison winning them with grappling, or potentially even finishing Peña before it gets that far. On BetMGM, Harrison is a heavy -750 favorite, which doesn't feel unreasonable given the matchup dynamics. I don't think it's a fight I'm going to invest in. Perhaps you could take a shot on Harrison inside the distance (-175) or by TKO (+300). There are only a few competitively lined fights on the card, but Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix is one of the matchups that interests me most. Primarily, it's because we're getting the UFC debut of Mix, who is the former Bellator bantamweight champion. Mix is 20-1 professionally, with 13 wins by submission and two more by knockout. He's beaten legit competition like Magomed Magomedov, Sergio Pettis, Kyoji Horiguchi and Raufeon Stots. His only loss came in a five-round decision to Juan Archuleta in 2020. Mix is a high-level wrestler, and that wrestling is the backbone of his game, along with his submission grappling. He's one of the best back-takers in the sport, and should clearly have a path to beating the mid-levels of the division with takedowns and back control. Plus, more than 50 percent of his professional wins are by submission, which largely include rear-naked chokes and guillotines, and I consider him to be a fairly dangerous and opportunistic grappler. Advertisement I do question whether Mix is a bit too reliant on that path, though, which won't be the easiest to achieve against the best of the best in the UFC. He doesn't necessarily shoot takedowns at the highest volume, and while he's left striking at distance, Mix seems semi-vulnerable there to me as well. I don't think we can rely on Mix to comfortably win striking rounds, and I'd probably consider him at a disadvantage against most competition. His pure wrestling will get him far, and he's well-sized, which should provide an edge, but I do think he'll need more to become champion. I also worry a bit that he gets labored down the stretch. I feel he is more comfortable in the early rounds. It's a strong base of skills, but I'm underwhelmed from a macro sense. Meanwhile, I am a fan of Bautista and have supported him for a while. I really enjoy Bautista's pacing, and he's been in more than one action fight throughout his UFC career. He currently lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.91 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate. Bautista is also well-rounded and can wrestle, landing 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and defending at 66 percent. I don't think he has fought many quality wrestlers who can compare to Mix, but his matchup against Da'Mon Blackshear was a solid performance. Blackshear took Bautista down four times in that fight, but was only able to control him for three minutes. Bautista edged out a decision with effective striking. Bautista's strongest round was also his third round. Dating back to his fight against Jin Soo Son, Bautista was able to land 60 significant strikes in that third round, which has always given me confidence in him over the distance. I don't think he's a perfect fighter, though. His defensive wrestling isn't elite. Mix will quite likely take him down early on in the fight. My bigger question is whether he can easily control Bautista because Bautista is an urgent scrambler. Advertisement It seems fair to assume Mix can win a round or two with takedowns and back-takes. Perhaps he can actually submit Bautista with a RNC. Bautista is not the easiest to control, though, and I think it's somewhat likely he can scramble free as well. At distance, I give Bautista a clear advantage with his striking volume and effectiveness. Mix stands kind of upright, and I don't always love his reactions. Bautista won't pour on the offense as Mix will limit engagements, but Bautista should be winning at distance, and I'd also favor him the longer the fight lasts. Ultimately, it's a great test for Mix, and it could be a fun fight. I think the most likely outcome is a competitive affair where both sides have success. That doesn't make me excited to jump on Mix as a favorite. He's currently -190 on BetMGM. It's possible he simply wraps up a takedown or two and finds a submission. Perhaps a longer shot on Mix by submission is a viable prop, which sits at +200. I do think Bautista can win a decision, and I don't mind him at +155. I also acknowledge that his early success may be limited, so it may also be better to jump in as a live opportunity. I do think a decision win for Bautista is the most likely outcome. Taking that at +250 is within range. I'm looking forward to seeing new blood in the bantamweight division. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Merab Dvalishvili: Candice Ward / Getty Images)
USA Today
4 hours ago
- USA Today
UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley odds, picks and predictions
UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley odds, picks and predictions In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley meet Saturday at UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event is expected to start approximately at 12:30 a.m. ET. Early prelims start at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+), followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+) and the main card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions. Records: Dvalishvili (19-4-0) | O'Malley (18-2-0) Dvalishvili lifted the bantamweight strap off of O'Malley at UFC 306 in a unanimous-decision victory Sept. 14, 2024. He successfully defended the championship at UFC 311 in January against Umar Nurmagomedov, also by way of unanimous decision. In fact, the Georgian fighter has 5 consecutive victories by way of unanimous-decision. Starting with a unanimous-decision victory over Terrion Ware in September 2018, Dvalishvili has won 11 times by way of UD, with just 1 fight inside the distance by way of KO/TKO in round 2 against Marlon Moraes in September 2021. In fact, in his MMA career, Dvalishvili has 23 fights under his belt, with a 3-0 record via KO/TKO, and 1-1 by way of submission. That means he is 15-3 in 18 fights going the distance. O'Malley hasn't fought since his loss to Dvalishvili at UFC 306 as he suffered a torn labrum in his hip which required corrective surgery. Now that he is healthy, "Suga Show" is back on as he runs it back against Dvalishvili. Prior to the Dvalishvili loss, he took the belt off of Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 by way of KO/TKO in August 2023. Seven months later, he successfully defended the belt against Marlon Vera at UFC 299, winning by unanimous decision March 9, 2024. O'Malley has gone the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights. O'Malley is 4 years younger than his counterpart, and he has a 5-inch height advantage and 4-inch reach advantage. The switch-stance fighter holds a 6.70-to-4.36 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage. Suga also holds a 61.86% significant-strikes-accuracy percentage to 58.94% for the current champ. Dvalishvili has a 5.89 takedown average, while O'Malley checks in at just 0.29 in the category. The submission average difference is rather negligible, however, as O'Malley holds a slight 0.29-to-0.26 advantage. UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley odds Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:43 a.m. ET. Fight result (2-way line) : Dvalishvili -285 (bet $285 to win $100) | O'Malley +225 (bet $100 to win $225) : Dvalishvili -285 (bet $285 to win $100) | O'Malley +225 (bet $100 to win $225) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +175) UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley picks and predictions O'MALLEY (+225) is a strong play for the opportunity to multiply up 2.25 times your initial bet. The former champ is healthy and a tremendous value at this price. The key to this fight will be if O'Malley can keep the fight upright, and avoid Dvalishvili from wowing the judges with his takedown ability. Both of these fighters have been routinely going the distance lately. If O'Malley was to get a finish, it would be via KO/TKO. If Dvalishvili was to get a finish, it would be by way of submission. He is No. 1 in control time (1:16:27) among the bantamweights. However, O'Malley leads the division in significant-strikes accuracy, and he has a 3.31 striking differential, which also leads the division. Whomever wows the judges most will get the victory. It's really a coin-flip fight despite whatever the sportsbooks say, so back the better value. Play our free daily Pick'em Challenge and win! Play now! Yes (-250): Fight to go the distance is just a little too on the expensive side, costing 2½ times to win 1 unit. If you were to toss it into a multi-leg parlay, it would be OK, but the parlay likely needs to be at least 3 or 4 legs to make sense. O'MALLEY ON POINTS (+600) is worth a roll of the dice for the chance to multiply up by 6 times. He has won twice via decision in his past 4 fights, including the KO/TKO of Sterling at UFC 292. In the loss to Dvalishvili by way of decision, O'Malley suffered an injury. He is a good bet to bounce back, and for the chance to multiply up 6 times, it's hard to pass on this huge value. Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis. For more sports betting picks and tips, check out and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
USA Today
5 hours ago
- USA Today
UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison odds, picks and predictions
UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison odds, picks and predictions In a 5-round women's bantamweight championship bout on the main card, Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison meet Saturday at UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The bout is expected to start approximately at 11:45 p.m. ET. Early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+) with the prelims set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+) and the main card slated for 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 316: Peña vs. Harrison odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions. Records: Peña (13-5-0) | Harrison (18-1-0) Peña picked up the championship belt in December 2011 from Amanda Nunes at UFC 269, posting a Round-2 submission win. But then Peña lost the strap in the rematch at UFC 277 in a unanimous-decision setback July 2022. She was expected to face Nunes in a trilogy fight at UFC 289 in June 2023, but Peña suffered broken ribs in training and had to pull out. 'The Venezuelan Vixen' bounced back at UFC 307 after more than a 2-year layoff, topping Raquel Pennington for the belt via split decision at UFC 307 Oct. 5, 2024. After 3 consecutive fights ending via submission from October 2020 to December 2021 -- Peña went 2-1 -- she had back-to-back 5-round decisions -- the rematch loss to Nunes and the title win vs. Pennington. Peña has actually gone the distance 5 times in her past 9 bouts with her last KO/TKO win coming back in April 2015. So, that method can mostly be ignored when it comes to wagering. Harrison gets a crack at the title just 3 fights into her UFC career. She opened with a Round-2 submission of Holly Holm at UFC 300 April 2024, before stopping Ketlen Vieira at UFC 307 via unanimous decision last October. Harrison has 3 consecutive victories across all levels since losing a title bout in the 2022 PFL World Championships to Larissa Pacheco Nov. 25, 2022. Harrison has gone the distance 3 times in her past 4 pro bouts. The southpaw Harrison is 34 years old, and she has a 4.87-to-3.25 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage in this matchup. However, Peña has a tremendous 56.25% takedown-accuracy percentage, and she does great work on the canvas. The champ also holds a 3-inch reach advantage, so she'll be able to push and pull the challenger out at her discretion. UFC 316: Peña vs. Harrison odds Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:43 a.m. ET. Fight result (2-way line) : Peña +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Harrison -700 (bet $700 to win $100) : Peña +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Harrison -700 (bet $700 to win $100) Total rounds: 3.5 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135) 3.5 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +175 | No +250) UFC 316: Peña vs. Harrison picks and predictions It's time for Harrison (-700) to ascend to the throne as champ, but it isn't as huge of a disparity as the sportsbooks are making it out to be. Peña (+475) is a huge underdog, which is stunning considering she is the current title holder. We saw Peña as a giant +600 underdog against Nunes at UFC 269 when she picked up the surprising round-2 submission win. She lost to Nunes in the rematch but rebounded to regain the title vs. Pennington. She has been through the emotions and been through the wars, which will be an advantage against Harrison, who just doesn't have that experience to tap into. PASS. Play our free daily Pick'em Challenge and win! Play now! Peña has 3 submission results in the past 5 fights, and 4 in the previous 7 outings since January 2017. For Harrison, she has 2 submission results in her past 5 pro fights. As such, betting SUBMISSION (+100) in "how the fight will end' method is a strong value at even-money ... and we don't need to worry about who is the winner. If you like the current champ, PEÑA BY SUBMISSION (+1200) on the 7-way line is a low-risk, high-reward possibility. OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (+100) is even-money is also a good play. Harrison is an upstart, and Peña has been going deep lately. She has gone the distance in the past 2 fights, and Harrison has gone the distance in 3 of the past 4 pro bouts. Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis. For more sports betting picks and tips, check out and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
