UFC 318 odds, predictions: Holloway vs. Poirier 3, last bout for ‘The Diamond'

New York Times

3 days ago

Another PPV is on the schedule this weekend, and it's a special one, as Dustin Poirier will take on Max Holloway for the third time in what is Poirier's final fight in the UFC.
I will break down this main event and two others below on a heavy 14-fight card. If there are any additional matchups you'd like to chat about, please let me know in the comment section below.
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Let's dive in!
The UFC will bid farewell to legend and future Hall-of-Famer Poirier on Saturday, as he will step into the Octagon one last time for an epic trilogy matchup against familiar foe Holloway for the BMF belt.
Holloway may hold the belt, but Poirier has raised his hand both times when he and Holloway have squared up inside the cage. The pair first fought in 2012, which was Holloway's UFC debut, and Poirier was able to land an early takedown and submit Holloway in the first round. But that fight occurred over 10 years ago and isn't relevant.
What's far more pertinent is the pair's most recent matchup, which took place six years ago in 2019. In that instance, Holloway, the reigning champion of the featherweight division, stepped up and challenged Poirier for the interim lightweight belt. It was a competitive scrap, but Poirier won it unanimously.
I thought Poirier separated from Holloway in that victory by landing the harder shots. Holloway fought competitively, as many rounds were closely contested, and Holloway still landed 181 significant strikes to Poirier's 178, though Poirier won the head strike battle 153 to 141.
Holloway is one of the best, if not the best, volume strikers in the sport's history. Poirier kept up with him to reach a career high in significant strikes landed in a lightweight bout, and as the better-framed lightweight fighter, he was more physical.
And as far as the trilogy fight — yes, this is a retirement bout for Poirier, which is usually a bearish signal, but it's not as if he's washed. He's still churning along in the lightweight division. Holloway is once again coming up a weight class after challenging for the featherweight belt, and the general dynamic remains the same.
I expect we'll again see a very competitive scrap with similar dynamics. What throws a wrench into the analysis is that, unlike last time, both fighters are a bit worn down. Obviously, Poirier is leaving the sport, but Holloway is coming off a knockout loss, the first knockout loss of his career.
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Poirier has also suffered a recent knockout, though less recently than Holloway. Gaethje (who Holloway obliterated a year later) knocked Poirier out with a head kick in 2023.
But both fighters can be hurt and also still dish out damage. From a projection standpoint, the most likely outcome is a tight fight that goes the distance.
If forced to choose, I lean toward Holloway because I have more faith in his offensive production. He landed 181 sig. strikes the first time the two met, but we've also seen Holloway land 230, 290 and 445 significant strikes over the course of five rounds. Poirier is less likely to reach those ceilings and will rely more on power.
Plus, most fighters do not win in their retirement fights.
I'm not excited to bet on this fight for reasons explained above, but I think the most likely outcome is a Holloway decision, which you can find at +165 on some books. Poirier is +275 to win by decision, which I also don't mind.
Let's hope these two come together and put on a show one last time, for Poirier's sake. Thanks for the memories!
This matchup also offers little betting value, though Marvin Vettori could be much more competitive than the odds have it.
I think the Vettori line has value. However, you can find him at +180 elsewhere, which I'd prefer.
Brendan Allen is a very strong submission grappler with a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and he excels in matchups where he has a grappling advantage on paper. He also lands 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 1.3 subs per fight.
But in striking-based matchups, I have much less faith in him. He's improved over the years, training with Henri Hooft, but he's not a volume machine or very defensively sound. Allen lands 3.55 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.67 per minute with a 45 percent defensive rate, which is bad.
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Now he takes on Marvin Vettori, a former title challenger who's looked poor over the past several years. After sitting on the shelf for two years, Vettori has lost three of his past four fights and recently dropped a five-round decision against Roman Dolidze.
But Vettori is still a competitive fighter. He's well-rounded and very tough. His boxing is fine, and he lands 4.54 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.37 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate. He can also grapple well, holding a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and landing 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 69 percent defensive rate.
What's most notable from my point of view is that Vettori doesn't get dominated on the mat. He can give up a takedown, but his takedown defense is fine, and he's never been submitted.
Allen has more grappling upside of the two on paper, but he isn't a phenomenal wrestler and doesn't even average two takedowns per fight. If he can immediately secure the back, he will have a shot to control and threaten Vettori. Otherwise, Vettori probably defends outright or scrambles back to his feet on the few occasions Allen takes him down.
If this is a boxing fight, I'm expecting it to be highly competitive. Allen might be the fresher party of the two, but Vettori is a bit more defensively sound and durable and has landed strikes at a higher rate historically. I think he has a real path to victory, though that path is narrow.
Ultimately, I won't be shocked if Allen raises his hand. But I think the value lies in Vettori at +180, and I think Vettori, by decision, holds value at +235 or better.
I may be overexposed to Jimmy Crute this week with some questionable fighting talents on the slate.
Not only has Crute failed to win each of his past five fights, but he also announced both his retirement and un-retirement during that four-year span. Plus, he's sitting at the cheap price of -300. Oof.
But despite the scary aspects of Crute's game, of which there are many, I think he's performed well, at times, during his recent five-fight skid. And to be fair, only three of those five fights were losses, with the other two resulting in a draw. Crute has only fought once since his return to the sport, and in that bout against Rodolfo Bellato, Crute hurt Bellato badly early and nearly secured the stoppage.
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Now he'll take on Marcin Prachnio, who was brutally knocked out in his first three UFC matchups. That was seven years ago, though, and since then, Prachnio has successfully earned four wins in seven matchups, which is a far more impressive run than I ever thought possible. I was surprised he was able to hold a roster spot early on.
He's a black belt in karate and relies on an outside kicking game, where he lands 5.57 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.24 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate. If you allow Prachnio to strike at distance for 15 minutes, he can rack up kicks and win on volume. He even defeated Khalil Rountree Jr. by decision in 2021, outlanding him 102 to 41. He also landed 101 sig. strikes against Devin Clark in 2024.
However, Prachnio has lost two of his last three fights on the mat, where I think he's looked awful. He has now been taken down 10 times in his previous three losses, and he defends takedowns at a poor 53 percent.
What is worse is that he doesn't have skills from the bottom. He's been submitted with an arm-triangle choke in back-to-back losses, and in his most recent defeat, he tapped out of position.
Crute is levels ahead of Prachnio on the floor, and it would be a horrible game plan to avoid pursuing takedowns. Crute lands 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes, holding a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and we've seen him have ground-based success on a few occasions. I worry a little about Crute's stamina if it goes the distance, but he should be able to land takedowns, and I think it's likely he finishes the fight on the mat.
However, he can still make mistakes. He has fought with poor game plans before, been knocked out, and his cardio is questionable, leaving the door open for Prachnio to kick his way to a decision or find a variance-related knockout.
I'm putting my faith behind Crute; this is his best matchup in the past five years. I think he's fairly safe to win, given his well-rounded skill set and clear advantage on the ground, and I don't mind taking chances on his finishing props at -130 to win ITD, or +170 to win by submission.
(Photo of Holloway vs. Poirier 2: Logan Riely / Getty Images)