Why strong rookie RB class is shaking up fantasy draft strategy
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Let's start with the running backs, where you kind of takeaways at that position.
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Yeah, I, in the, in the write up of the mock, um, I highlighted three different things and the first of them was running back depth.
I think that this is the impact of a really, really good, um, draft class at the running back position, right?
We've had this group of, you know, 678 guys come into the league that we're all pretty interested in, and it's just made, I don't know, it's made the running back position feel incredibly deep.
One of my takeaways was certainly that like.
That, you know, the what is normally thought of as the running back dead zone, uh, and you can define that however you like.
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Usually it's, it's somewhere beginning somewhere around 4-ish, extending through like round 8, round 9, right, where it's just a, it's just a minefield of running backs who You know, we, we think they have, we think they're in line for a lot of touches, but we don't know if they're good.
Um, you know, there's there's like a bunch of messy players in there, but it's not like that now.
Like if you look at, you look at the 5th round in our draft, and um it's, it's like Ken Walker and It's David Montgomery and it's James Connor and like Alvin Kamara waited until the 6th round.
These are good players who, as long as they stay healthy, are going to be incredibly productive running backs for you.
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Um, and, and again, those guys are getting pushed into the dead zone.
That's not what the dead zone is supposed to be.
Um, and then after those guys, we got that real wave of um non-genty rookie running backs, right?
And they all kind of went in a big flurry.
I think it started with Caleb Johnson and it went like RJ Harvey and you know, then we finished up with like Henderson and Judkins, but they, they all just Went in a clump, and then the running backs at the very end, like the like the endgame running backs before we started taking defenses and kickers, they're still good names.
They were Jaylen Warren, they were Nai Harris, or Jordan Mason.
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This big group of really useful names who I think if you're drafting like a zero RRB team, those are better than the names that you were seeing in the final rounds last year.
Um, so it's, it's just like all things considered, running back.
Again, it's running back and, you know, it's fantasy football, so this is probably all gonna get, you know, flipped on its head and it's, it's uh it's not gonna seem this like we're gonna be laughing about the fact that we thought running back was deep when we get into October.
I get it, but right now, as you look at the landscape, it looks crazy deep.
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Fantasy Football: Favorite pick in every round of a 12-team draft
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The Falcons led the NFL by a wide margin in zone rushing rate (71%) per Fantasy Points Data but ranked first in success rate on gap runs. The latter tends to produce more explosive plays and the lack of home runs has been a critique in Robinson's profile. We often see first-time offensive coordinators add more wrinkles in their second season, so it's not out of the question that Zac Robinson mixes up the run game more in 2025. Bijan should also be the primary checkdown option for Michael Penix Jr., who reads defenses well to get to those checkdowns and is more likely to hit those than to scramble. Round 2 - Drake London (17th overall ADP) I have Drake London ranked 10th overall this year and he goes at pick 17, which is up from his 20th overall ADP for most of the summer. I just don't get why London isn't universally ranked at the Round 1 to 2 turn. London owned an outrageous 38.9% target share in Michael Penix Jr.'s three starts and, while he won't carry that over perfectly into 2025, he's been the clear top guy in camp for Penix. London could easily get north of 30% as he's a true No. 1 wideout who wins at all three levels and from multiple alignments. With Darnell Mooney out for an undetermined length of time, London should only continue to dominate the targets; he could lead the league in that category this year. He's just as talented as guys like Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., who go ahead of him in Yahoo ADP, and is paired with a quarterback who can unlock his game on deep out routes. Monster year incoming for the Falcons' two best players on offense for a team that will have to push the limit on that side of the ball to make up for a generous defense. Round 3 - Jayden Daniels (29th overall ADP) The third round is an uninspiring dead zone in fantasy drafts this year. 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Round 6 - TreVeyon Henderson (61st overall ADP) If you can acquire TreVeyon Henderson as your RB3, you just have to do it. Henderson is an explosive runner who has experience hitting outside gap runs, which should be a staple of this Josh McDaniels offense. He's also a weapon as a receiver for a team that needs juice in the passing game. In fantasy, we want to prioritize big-play potential from our backs and receiving production along with it. Henderson checks both boxes. To be totally clear, I don't know how much longer we can even get Henderson in this range. His ADP is on a rocket ship after a fantastic showing in the preseason. Should he get north of the sixth round, Jaylen Waddle (62nd overall ADP) is my top backup choice, because he has the upside to lead Miami in receiving this season with the way Tyreek Hill is trending. Also, you can take any of the wide receivers I list in the next section ahead of ADP, too. Round 7 - Travis Hunter (77th overall ADP) Quite frankly, there are so many wide receiver picks I like in the late sixth to seventh round in current ADP (pick 69 to 82). This is right in the money section of the section I highlighted in my wide receiver position preview, where you can feel the strength of the group. You'll find Tetarioa McMillan, Calvin Ridley, Chris Olave and Rome Odunze in this range — all of those players are firmly in my draft plans. However, the most fun player to select in this range is Travis Hunter. Already a wide receiver prospect I was incredibly bullish on predraft as a truly special football player with prime Odell Beckham Jr. upside, Hunter landing in Liam Coen's offense was a dream fit and you've already seen that with his preseason deployment. Hunter will get a ton of easy-button targets from the slot and in motion. He's a natural fit on screens and crossers that were the staples of this offense in 2024. It's been clear for months that Hunter will be a receiver first who dabbles on defense in Jacksonville, and will be a near full-time offensive player on passing downs. He has a solid floor given his projected usage and an immense ceiling with his ability if the offense clicks under Coen in Year 1. Round 8 - Tucker Kraft (92nd overall ADP) When it comes to breakout tight ends, we want guys who are on the field often, play in strong offensive environments for touchdown equity and (with a bonus) if they have the upside to be a top-two target on their team. Tucker Kraft checks every box. Only four tight ends ran a route on over 80% of their team's dropbacks in 2024: Trey McBride (87.1%), Brock Bowers (84.5%), Travis Kelce (83.9%) and Tucker Kraft (83.5%). The Packers are projected to be an excellent offense again this season and Kraft is a proven touchdown threat with a 10% touchdown rate. He ranked third among tight ends with 50-plus targets. 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The fantasy community just doesn't realize how high of a ceiling this player has and he's set to take the field for an efficient passer and play-caller who prints production. Round 10 - Matthew Golden (113th overall ADP) The fantasy industry has over-indexed on how run-heavy, and how volatile the Green Bay Packers were in the receiver room last year. It's caused some serious value to be available late for their passing-game players. The Packers are widely expected to be a top 10 to 12 offense this year, and yet, Josh Jacobs is their only offensive player going inside the top 90 overall picks. The industry-wide fade has even extended to Round 1 rookie, Matthew Golden. While Golden isn't the same level of prospect as some of the rookies who ripped through the NFL last year, he's no slouch. He was third among all the prospects I charted last year in success rate vs. zone coverage, behind only Emeka Egbuka (another excellent post-top-90 wide receiver pick) and Travis Hunter. 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Biggest fantasy football ADP risers/fallers for the third week of August 2025
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In a Kyle Shanahan system with Brock Purdy at the helm, Pearsall is climbing in ADP for a very good reason: he's been heavily undervalued (and still is). While he's up to WR37 on Yahoo, I'm ranking him much closer to WR27 (or higher). Take him somewhere in that range in your upcoming fantasy draft. 4. Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders, WR (ADP -8.35) There hasn't been any hype on Jakobi Meyers, and he hasn't done anything of note in the preseason, so it's somewhat surprising to see his name in the risers this week. Maybe it's growing faith in Geno Smith and the Vegas offense. Maybe it's a realization that the rest of the depth chart is ... subpar at best. Regardless, it makes sense for Meyers, who is going at WR36, one spot ahead of Pearsall. In a 2024 season with inferior quarterback play — i.e. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell — Meyers caught 87 of 129 targets and finished as the WR23 overall. He doesn't have the breakout upside of a guy like Pearsall, Rome Odunze or Emeka Egbuka in the same range, but he's perhaps the most likely of the group to finish reliably above his draft price. If you're looking for a safe WR3, Meyers is one of the best options in the later rounds and belongs a little higher on draft boards. 3. TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots, RB (ADP -10.96) Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson cracked this list on the merits of his usage in Week 1 of the preseason. Since then, he missed multiple practices with an unspecified injury before returning early this week sporting a non-contact jersey. Meanwhile, rookie TreVeyon Henderson bulldozed his way into the limelight. The reports out of camp have been nothing but glowing for the explosive rookie, and while Stevenson figures to maintain an early-down or short-yardage role, Henderson is gaining steam as the true No. 1 back in New England. I expect we'll continue to see his ADP rocket upwards — he's reached RB23 at the 5-6 turn, but could easily crack the top-20 running backs and the fourth round before Week 1. If you draft before then, don't hesitate to be aggressive and reach a little for Henderson. 2. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars, RB (ADP -11.44) The roller coaster of Jaguars running back ADPs continues, as Tank Bigsby has worked his way ahead of Travis Etienne Jr. on Yahoo. Notably, after some chaotic hype around Etienne's usage on the first drive of the preseason, it was Bigsby who dominated the opening opportunities last week against the Saints. And looked good doing it. All that we've really learned so far is that the Jaguars are still learning themselves. But the curriculum says Bigsby will win this job. He is a perfect analog for Bucky Irving in Liam Coen's offense, while Etienne plays the Rachaad White role. I had Bigsby as the All-Breakout Team RB2 for these reasons, and believe he has a similar ceiling to Irving's RB14 finish last year. Even with this bump in ADP, Bigsby is arguably the cheapest "lead back" in fantasy. If he secures the job and Jacksonville improves under Coen's tutelage, he'll be one of the best values in 2025 drafts. 1. Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR (ADP -15.21) After a couple weeks of the fall of Chris Godwin and rise of Emeka Egbuka, we're in full-blown to-the-moon territory now. The first-round rookie receiver has been tearing it up in camp, scoring in preseason action and earning the label "absolute stud" from Baker Mayfield, making an airtight case to start alongside Mike Evans from the first snap of Week 1. Meanwhile, Godwin remains sidelined (likely through multiple regular-season games), and Jalen McMillan also got banged up in preseason action. Plus, I'm on record saying Evans might be slowing down at 32 years old, coming off an inefficient 2024 season. Egbuka's floor is steadily climbing towards "weekly FLEX" territory, but his ceiling might be similar to Ladd McConkey's or even Malik Nabers' from last year. 5 Biggest ADP Fallers Honorable Mentions This week, Godwin has graduated from the honorable mentions to the top (bottom?) of the fallers, but there are a couple names worth noting in his stead. DJ Moore experienced an odd dip this past week, possibly due to rising expectations for Rome Odunze and the rest of the busy (young) Bears receiving corps. I'm buying the dip. Stevenson lost all the gain he saw last week (preseason is a fickle friend) to balance out Henderson's rise. And Justin Herbert continues to slide as well, despite the addition of Keenan Allen to a potentially underrated group of pass-catchers — he's a solid discount option if you wait on QB or want insurance for a guy like Justin Fields. 5. Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens, WR (ADP +4.84) Little has changed in Baltimore, no one (of note) is hurt and Zay Flowers has played multiple NFL seasons and more or less proven who he is ... so why the ADP drop? I think it's because drafters are finding wideouts they actually want to draft on the WR2/WR3 fringe, rather than settling for Flowers because "he'll probably finish around there." The names going right after Flowers in Yahoo ADP — Calvin Ridley, Jameson Williams, Tetairoa McMillan — all have far more upside. Riskier receivers like Rashee Rice, Travis Hunter and Rome Odunze — going a round later — are more intriguing than a Ravens wideout who will probably hit 1,000 yards and five touchdowns and call it a day. Heck, Meyers (see above) is basically Flowers, but two rounds cheaper. If you're okay spending a sixth-round pick on a high-floor, low-ceiling WR3, Flowers might be your guy. But he's not the type of pick that wins fantasy championships, and the ADP shift is starting to reflect that. 4. Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams, WR (ADP +5.40) The dip for Davante Adams can be summarized in three words. Matthew Stafford's back. The veteran quarterback had missed quite a bit of time with back pain that was growing into a legitimate concern for Rams fans. Until Monday. Now "Matthew Stafford's back" is actually the best news Adams could ask for ... as in, Stafford's back at practice. Whether it was the infamous "rejuvenation chamber" or whether the 37-year-old just needed a few well-earned veteran days off, the panic in Los Angeles should fade in the coming days, and Adams' ADP should correct. That said, if you can snap him up in the late fourth round as a result of lingering worries, I would do it. His upside as the red-zone threat and WR1B across from Puka Nacua is sky high. He's going between Garrett Wilson (who I'm avoiding at all costs) and Terry McLaurin (who's floating in front-office limbo right now). Give me Adams, who's "red flags" aren't even about him, and who arguably has the highest upside in this range of drafts. 3. Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers, WR (ADP +6.08) As first-round draft pick Matthew Golden makes a name for himself in the fantasy community, Jayden Reed is going to continue to see his ADP plummet. It was already headed downhill as Reed dealt with a foot injury in training camp, but now the athletic rookie is more or less replacing him as the "lightning rod" of the Packers offense. Reed had already been inconsistent — as has every Green Bay receiver since Adams left — but now he'll likely be relegated to WR2A or B or C or some other letter in a murky depth chart, while Golden takes the "alpha" role (whatever that entails out in Wisconsin). As we speak, Reed is still technically one spot ahead of Golden in ADP, but I expect that to flip in the coming days. He'd need to drop another round or two to pique my interest, and even then, drafting him means taking on quite a bit of risk for a questionably lucrative reward. 2. Cam Skattebo, New York Giants, RB (ADP +8.65) As one of Cam Skattebo's biggest truthers coming into (and even out of) the draft, this hurts. But we have to face reality. The rookie running back has been dealing with a hamstring injury for most of training camp and is now reportedly unlikely to be ready for Week 1 of the regular season. That puts quite the damper on any sleeper excitement for the unique, hard-running, pass-catching pinball of a back. Even if and when Skattebo returns, hamstring injuries headed into the season are a major red flag for me. He's worth stashing, in case he does return quickly to full strength (and manages to stay healthy), but is falling from the "RB3 with upside" range to the "question-ridden RB4" range ... and justifiably so. 1. Chris Godwin & Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR (+18.95) & QB (ADP +15.00) We've touched on Godwin and his agonizingly slow recovery from ankle injury, and Baker Mayfield was the No. 1 faller last week as well, but these situations bear reminding. Drafters are liable to see Godwin's recognizable name and hit "Draft" in the 10th round, but the way things are trending, we may not even see him on the field for a month (or more) after the start of the season. I'd need to see him fall another round or two (past guys like Khalil Shakir and Josh Downs) to consider drafting him with confidence. As for Mayfield, everything I said last week remains true: he was being drafted far too high based on unsustainably efficient 2024 numbers, and needs to fall to the very back of QB1 range (or out of it) to earn a legitimate look in your drafts. As it stands, I'd still rather take Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray, the guys going right after him in drafts, without question.
