A year of setbacks for Iran

Al Arabiya

02-07-2025

The Iranian government declared 'victory' following a ceasefire with Israel that ended the devastating 12-day war. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tried to project strength and control. But the reality is stark: the Islamic Republic has just endured what is arguably the worst year in its post-1979 history.
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Iran's claims of resilience and power may comfort the government, but the broader geopolitical picture reveals unprecedented blows – military, strategic, and psychological. In the past year and a half, Tehran has watched its foundational pillars of influence crumble: its military prestige has been shattered, its nuclear deterrent set back, its closest regional allies have been weakened or lost entirely, and its so-called 'Axis of Resistance' has been weakened. This isn't just a series of temporary setbacks; these are deep structural wounds that may take decades to heal – if they ever do.
The 12-day war: Devastation behind the curtain of ceasefire
The 12-day war that began on June 13, 2025, was not just a military confrontation – it was a strategic humiliation for Iran. What started with a surprise Israeli operation rapidly evolved into one of the most precise and crippling military campaigns the Islamic Republic has ever faced.
Within a short time, Israeli fighter jets and drones eliminated more than 30 senior Iranian military figures, including the powerful IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh and Revolutionary Guard chief Gen. Hossein Salami. These were not mid-level operatives; they were the architects of Iran's asymmetric warfare strategy, its ballistic missile programs, and its regional proxy operations. Their loss has created a leadership vacuum that no amount of rhetoric can disguise.
The strikes did not stop at personnel. Israel proceeded to bombard many high-value military targets deep inside Iranian territory. It targeted and killed at least nine nuclear scientists in Tabriz and Natanz. Meanwhile, US B-2 bombers and F-22s joined the offensive, delivering bunker-busting bombs to sites like Fordow and Parchin.
The scale and speed of the joint Israeli-American campaign was unprecedented. Iran's ability to retaliate was feeble at best. It launched volleys of missiles into Israel, but most were intercepted or fell harmlessly. In the end, Tehran was forced into accepting a ceasefire under pressure – not from a position of strength, but desperation. Khamenei's declaration of victory appears to ring hollow to those who had seen the true extent of Iran's defeat.
Iran's vulnerable skies: A myth shattered
One of the most shocking revelations of the war was just how easily and thoroughly Israel was able to dominate Iran's airspace. For twelve days, Israeli F-35s and armed drones operated with impunity, striking targets from Tehran to Isfahan without any significant resistance. This wasn't just a tactical failure – it was a strategic disaster.
Iran has spent decades cultivating the image of a self-reliant military power capable of defending its skies. From Russian-made S-300s to its indigenously produced 'Bavar-373' air defense system, Tehran projected the impression that it was prepared for any aerial threat. That illusion has now been obliterated.
To the average Iranian – and to the government's regional allies – the message was unmistakable: a small country like Israel, with the backing of the US, can dismantle Iran's defenses in a matter of days. If Tehran cannot even secure its own skies, how can it defend its proxies, project regional dominance, or threaten its adversaries? The psychological impact of this defeat is enormous and will linger long after the physical damage has been repaired.
Nuclear deterrent eroded: Infrastructure in rubble
Iran has long viewed its nuclear program as the ultimate insurance policy against government change and foreign attack. Its ability to enrich uranium and the ambiguity surrounding its breakout capabilities gave it leverage in diplomatic negotiations and instilled fear in regional adversaries. That edge has now been dulled, if not completely shattered.
The Israeli and US airstrikes targeted multiple nuclear sites, including the heavily fortified Fordow facility, deep within a mountain. Satellite images in the aftermath showed massive craters, collapsed infrastructure, and frantic recovery efforts. Bulldozers and cranes have been working day and night to salvage what they can, but the damage is undeniable.
More devastating than the physical damage is the human toll. The assassination of key nuclear scientists has crippled Iran's technical brain trust. These were individuals who carried decades of specialized knowledge – not easily replaced by young engineers or imported know-how. This blow to Iran's nuclear program strips the government of one of its most powerful diplomatic tools. Its ability to use the threat of nuclear escalation to extract concessions from the West, to rally domestic unity, or to scare its neighbors, has now been seriously compromised.
Losing al-Assad: A strategic corridor severed
Syria, under Bashar al-Assad, was Iran's central gateway to the Levant. Through Damascus, Iran moved weapons to Hezbollah, trained Shia militias, and maintained a military presence on Israel's northern border. The fall of al-Assad's government upended that equation.
Without Syria, Iran has effectively lost its land bridge to Hezbollah. Tehran can no longer count on free passage or safe havens in Syria. Al-Assad's fall was more than just a strategic loss – it's a symbolic one. For years, Iran boasted of rescuing the Syrian government from collapse during the civil war. That investment, both in blood and treasure, has now been erased. Billions of dollars spent, thousands of Quds Force operatives deployed, and hundreds of diplomatic man-hours – all for nothing.
The collapse of the Syrian government not only weakens Iran's forward presence, but it also emboldens its adversaries who now see the Axis of Resistance as fragmented and vulnerable.
Hezbollah: From fearsome proxy to fading force
Hezbollah, once the crown jewel of Iran's proxy network, is now weakened. Following relentless Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon throughout 2024 and 2025, Hezbollah has lost much of its command infrastructure and weapons stockpile. Key commanders have been eliminated, and morale among fighters has reportedly dropped significantly.
Most telling was Hezbollah's limited involvement in the Iran-Israel war. Despite calls from Tehran for solidarity, no support was extended by the group; There was no coordinated assault, no second front, no regional escalation. Hezbollah stood by, restrained and degraded.
This is a devastating development for the Islamic Republic. For decades, Iran has relied on Hezbollah as both a deterrent and an extension of its military power. If Hezbollah can no longer be counted on to fight alongside Iran in a time of war, then the concept of 'proxy resistance' begins to unravel.
The larger picture: A declining power facing the abyss
Taken together, these developments paint a bleak picture for the Iranian government. Over the course of just 18 months, Tehran has lost key military leaders, had its air defenses exposed as inadequate, seen its nuclear infrastructure severely damaged, watched its key ally Assad fall from power, and witnessed the degradation of Hezbollah.
The psychological toll on the government – and on the Iranian people – should not be underestimated. Confidence in the government's competence is eroding. Public anger is simmering over the
government's foreign adventures while domestic economic and social needs go unaddressed.
More importantly, Iran's enemies now see it as weakened and the era of Iran projecting power into the region without serious pushback may be over.
Even if the government survives these blows – which it likely will in the short term – the road to recovering its strategic position will be long and uncertain. In fact, some of the damage may be irreversible. Iran may never again command the same level of influence it once did in Baghdad, Damascus, or Beirut.
In conclusion, this past year has been a strategic catastrophe for the Islamic Republic of Iran. The 12-day war exposed its military vulnerabilities. Israeli dominance of its airspace shattered its aura of invincibility. Its nuclear program was set back. Al-Assad's fall broke the land corridor vital to Iran's regional presence. Hezbollah, its strongest proxy, is no longer a dependable partner. Despite the government declaration of victory, the facts speak for themselves. Iran has had a very bad year – perhaps its worst yet. And the repercussions will echo not just in 2025, but in the years and decades to come.