July jobs report expected to show a labor market slowing to a crawl
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
2 hours ago
- Bloomberg
US Treasury Rally Stalls as Key Consumer Price Data Looms Large
Treasury yields rose from a three-month low ahead of a key inflation report that may shape market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as next month. Ten-year yields rose 7 basis points last week to about 4.3%, marking the first increase in three weeks. Traders priced in an over 80% probably for a Fed rate cut in September, interest-rate swaps showed.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump says US jobs report was 'rigged' — here's how it actually works
Recent data on the health of the nation's job market cost Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, her own employment after President Trump lashed out when revisions to earlier months' numbers suggested the economy could be in worse shape than previously thought. 'Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED,' Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday. The July employment numbers, released last week, showed the US added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than what was reported previously. Economists were quick to note the changes, while larger than normal, are routine, factoring in survey data from employers that's slower to arrive, while Trump's actions risk politicizing a crucial economic indicator. Here's how the jobs report is pieced together and why data within it is regularly updated. How 'jobs data' works Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an 'employment situation' report that includes employment, hours, and wage data for workers on nonfarm payrolls from an 'establishment survey' of businesses representing varied sectors of the economy. The report also includes data from a separate 'household survey' on the labor force, employment, and unemployment. The report is closely watched by economists, traders, and businesspeople because it can move markets, influence monetary policy, and reflect the overall health of the economy. The revisions that upset Trump were from the establishment survey, which relies on a survey of about 121,000 businesses and government agencies across the week or pay period that includes the 12th of the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimated data from this survey is always revised twice in the succeeding two months after it's initially published 'to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors,' the BLS says in a 'frequently asked questions' page. Put simply, some businesses are slow to respond, so their survey answers are added as they're received, leading to revisions — up or down — in the estimates of new jobs. Importantly, the most recent revisions were within the BLS's confidence interval — the measure of uncertainty in its own estimates — of 'plus or minus 136,000' for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. May payroll data was revised down by 125,000 jobs to 19,000 jobs gained, while June was revised down by 133,000 to 14,000 jobs gained. Sweet noted that 'if you look at the size of the revisions relative to total employment, they're not significantly larger than what we've seen historically.' In a blog post earlier this year, Michael Madowitz, principal economist for the Roosevelt Institute, wrote that while revisions can lead to some confusion, it's worth reflecting on 'why incurring some temporary confusion, in this case, contributes to the universally respected economic statistics that are central to the long-term stability of the US financial system.' The BLS is showing its work, he noted, which is a good thing. The payroll estimates from establishment surveys are also revised annually to account for wage and employment data from state unemployment insurance tax records. One of these revisions made waves last August when the BLS announced the economy had 818,000 fewer positions in the 12 months ending in March 2024 than initially reported, though that revision itself was also revised earlier this year to 598,000 fewer jobs. Trump has referenced the 818,000 data point as another example of what he perceives as data manipulation to favor Democrats, though it wasn't exactly great news for the Biden administration. 'We were pretty devastated that in August of 2024 in an election year — right kind of in the home stretch there when people were starting to pay attention — BLS did its annual benchmark revision and found that we had added 800,000 fewer jobs than we had thought at that point,' said Alex Jacquez, a former Biden official and the chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive group. Why are the revisions happening? A bigger likely problem than data manipulation is fewer businesses answering the survey. Response rates for the establishment survey have declined sharply in recent years, leading to some worries that the data is becoming more vulnerable to errors. Still, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote in March of the monthly employment gains through 2024 that 'despite the substantial decline in response rates, the incoming data are reassuringly not subject to greater noise, and thus greater uncertainty, than in the past.' But 'it's becoming less of a clear picture of how the labor market is doing in the first estimate' due to the lower survey responses, Sweet said. That's not a knock on the BLS, he added. 'These revisions are normal,' Sweet said. 'It's the nature of the beast of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy.' Additionally, big revisions have occurred in other times of economic weirdness, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. 'This is why we had massive upwards revisions in the early months of the Biden administration, when a ton of people were coming back into the labor force after COVID lockdowns,' Jacquez said. The US indeed has some weirdness right now, including tariffs, business uncertainty, and immigrant workers leaving the labor force. '(Major revisions) tend to coincide with idiosyncratic times in the labor market, which would make sense. If there's a big recession, there's a bunch of churn and a bunch of things happening in the labor market that wouldn't normally be captured by the standard analysis and regressions that you pull out of the data,' he added. Sign up for the Mind Your Money weekly newsletter By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Keep watch That's not to say the revisions aren't worth examining, though: the two-month revision was the biggest since 1968 when excluding recessions, economists at Goldman Sachs have said, and could point to some strain in the economy. Even before the most recent jobs report, economists had been watching for recession risks and a slowing job market, making reliable data all the more crucial. In a video appearance on Yahoo Finance, William Beach, McEntarfer's predecessor, said the BLS commissioner has nothing to do with the estimation or preparation of the jobs data, but 'the damage is done' — people who don't follow the BLS that closely may struggle to trust the numbers. 'We're going to take a long time to recover from this,' Beach said. Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
5 Best Stocks With Relative Price Strength to Buy Right Now
After a strong run last month, U.S. stocks have hit a patch of turbulence. Tariff headlines, including sweeping new levies on key partners and chip imports, spooked markets and pushed the S&P 500 to its biggest loss in months. Job growth in July fell far short of expectations, and that of previous months was revised sharply lower. Yet, the weakness is fueling rate-cut hopes, with traders now pricing in a 92% chance of a Fed cut in September—a move that could support equity the recent pullback, investor sentiment hasn't turned bearish. Negotiations with major trading partners are still underway, and potential breakthroughs could calm tariff jitters. Lower interest rates, coupled with easing inflation fears, set the stage for a recovery. In this uncertain but promising environment, focusing on relative price strength is a smart move — helping investors find the stocks best positioned to lead the next leg this stage, investors would be wise to consider stocks such as Barrick Mining Corporation (BB), LendingTree TREE, Mercury General Corporation MCY, Rigel Pharmaceuticals RIGL and Levi Strauss & Co. LEVI based on their relative price strength. Relative Price Strength Strategy Whether a stock has the potential to offer considerable returns is determined primarily by its earnings and valuation ratios. Simultaneously, it is essential to check whether its price performance exceeds its peers or the industry such comparison, if we find that a stock is unable to match up to wider sectoral growth despite having impressive earnings momentum or valuation multiples, it may be better to avoid those outperforming their respective industries or benchmarks should be included in your portfolio since they have a higher chance of securing significant returns. Picking a stock that outperforms its peers ensures a winning option on your again, it is imperative that you determine whether or not an investment has relevant upside potential when considering stocks with significant relative price strength. Stocks delivering better than the S&P 500 for 1 to 3 months, at least, and having solid fundamentals, indicate room for growth and are the best ways to go about this it is crucial to find out whether analysts are optimistic about the upcoming earnings of these companies. In order to do this, we have added positive estimate revisions for the current quarter's (Q1) earnings to our screen. When a stock undergoes an upward revision, it leads to additional price gains. Screening Parameters Relative % Price change – 12 weeks greater than 0Relative % Price change – 4 weeks greater than 0Relative % Price change – 1 week greater than 0(We have considered those stocks that have been outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 12 weeks, four weeks and one week.)% Change (Q1) Est. over 4 Weeks greater than 0: Positive current-quarter estimate revisions over the last four Rank equal to 1: Only Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks — that have returned more than 26% annually over the last 26 years and surpassed the S&P 500 in 23 of the last 26 years — can get through. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks Price greater than or equal to $5 and Average 20-day Volume greater than or equal to 50,000: A minimum price of $5 is a good standard to screen low-priced stocks, while a high trading volume would imply adequate Score less than or equal to B: Our research shows that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B, when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 or 2 (Buy), offer the best upside are five of the 22 stocks that made it through the screen:Barrick Mining Corporation: Based in Toronto, Canada, it is among the largest gold mining companies in the world. Barrick's expected EPS growth rate for three to five years is currently 33.5%, which compares favorably with the industry's growth rate of 28.4%. The company has a VGM Score of Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick's 2025 earnings per share indicates 55.6% year-over-year growth. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings has moved up from $1.76 per share to $1.96. B shares have gained 32.5% in a Based in Charlotte, NC, it is an online platform that connects borrowers and lenders. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings of LendingTree indicates 45.1% growth. The company has a VGM Score of beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 70.8%, on average. The company has a market capitalization of $742.6 million. LendingTree's shares have gone up 25.5% in a General Corporation: Based in Los Angeles, CA and founded in 1961, Mercury General is a leading provider of personal automobile insurance. The company has a market capitalization of $4 billion. Mercury General has a VGM Score of the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's 2025 earnings has surged 1,000%. Mercury General beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 166%, on average. The firm's shares are up 16.4% in a year. Rigel Pharmaceuticals: It is a clinical-stage company dedicated to discovering and developing innovative small-molecule drugs. RIGL's focus spans inflammatory diseases, cancer and viral infections. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings of Rigel Pharmaceuticals indicates 170.7% growth. Headquartered in South San Francisco, CA, RIGL has a VGM Score of A. The firm has a market capitalization of $532.8 million. Rigel Pharmaceuticals beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average being 1,840.5%. RIGL shares have increased 198.1% in a year. Levi Strauss & Co.: It is a global apparel company that designs, sources and markets a range of products. Headquartered in San Francisco, CA, Levi Strauss has a market capitalization of $8.1 billion. The company has a VGM Score of Zacks Consensus Estimate for Levi Strauss' fiscal 2025 earnings per share indicates 4% year-over-year growth. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fiscal 2025 earnings has moved up 5.7%. Levi Strauss' shares have gained 15% in a year. You can get the rest of the stocks on this list by signing up now for your 2-week free trial to the Research Wizard and start using this screen in your own trading. Further, you can also create your own strategies and test them first before taking the investment plunge. The Research Wizard is a great place to begin. It's easy to use. Everything is in plain language. And it's very intuitive. Start your Research Wizard trial today. And the next time you read an economic report, open up the Research Wizard, plug your finds in, and see what gems come out. Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks' portfolios and strategies are available at: Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report LendingTree, Inc. (TREE) : Free Stock Analysis Report Barrick Mining Corporation (B) : Free Stock Analysis Report Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report Mercury General Corporation (MCY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
