March Madness: Norfolk State vs. Florida odds, picks and predictions
The Spartans picked up a 66-65 win — as 1.5-point favorites — over South Carolina State in the MEAC Tournament title game. They won all 3 of their tourney games as favorites but failed to cover in each with an average winning margin of just 3.7 points per game (PPG). Norfolk State is 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in its past 7 games. G Brian Moore Jr. leads the Spartans in scoring with 18.4 PPG.
The Spartans are 2-3 all time in their 3 NCAA Tournament appearances. In its first NCAA Tourney back in 2012, Norfolk State upset second-seeded Missouri 86-84 in a first-round game as a 15 seed. Norfolk also scored a First Four win over Appalachian State in 2021. The Spartans' last appearance was in 2022 when they lost 85-49 to No. 1 seed Baylor in a first-round game.
As the No. 1 seed in the West, the Gators are looking to make a deep run this spring. They won each of their 3 SEC Conference Tourney games by at least 9 points on the way to a title. Florida defeated Tennessee 86-77 in the SEC Championship Game, covering as a 5-point favorite with the Over (142) cashing, as G Walter Clayton Jr. scored a team-high 22 points. The Gators are 12-1 ATS in their past 13 games, including 6-0 in the last 6. The Over has hit in their last 7 games, too.
Florida's roster is littered with talent as Clayton Jr. averages a team-best 17.5 PPG with 4.3 APG and 3.8 RPG while shooting 37.7% from behind the arc. G Alijah Martin (14.5 PPG) brings a wealth of experience after helping FAU to an unlikely Final Four appearance in 2023, and G Will Richard is the Gators' third-leading scorer at 13.6 PPG.
Florida bowed out as a 7 seed in the first round of last year's NCAA Tourney, falling 102-100 to 10th-seeded Colorado. The Gators are just 3-5 in their past 8 NCAA Tournament games. They are a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2014 when they lost to eventual champion UConn in the Final Four.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll
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Norfolk State vs. Florida odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at11:42 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Norfolk State +3300 (bet $100 to win $3,300) | Florida -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
: Norfolk State +3300 (bet $100 to win $3,300) | Florida -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS) : Norfolk State +28.5 (-115) | Florida -28.5 (-105)
: Norfolk State +28.5 (-115) | Florida -28.5 (-105) Over/Under (O/U): 153.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Norfolk State vs. Florida picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida 97, Norfolk State 65
Florida (-10000) will set you back $100 for every $1 of profit. It shouldn't need to be said, but betting that much for such little return is foolish and not a recommended long-term betting strategy.
PASS.
FLORIDA -28.5 (-105) is worth backing, laying the big points. The Gators are a No. 1 seed and they're entering on a heater. As mentioned, Florida has covered 6 straight games, while Norfolk is on an 0-3 ATS run and just 1-6 ATS in the past 7 outings.
This is going to be a mismatch of epic proportions, and the Gators should be able to polish off the Spartans without breaking much of a sweat.
OVER 153.5 (-115) is the play as the Over is 7-0 in Florida's last 7 outings. The Gators offense rolled up 85.4 PPG this season, ranking third in the country according to NCAA.com. It wouldn't be surprising to see Florida surpass triple digits Friday.
Norfolk State is a concern, though. It has managed 77.3 PPG this season, but it struggled on offense in the MEAC Tournament, and it is an awful 3-point shooting team at 33.1% to rank 222nd in the nation.
Be careful, and don't get too carried away with the Over here.
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