Bank Negara revises Malaysia's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.0%-4.8%
The projection takes into account various tariff scenarios, ranging from continued elevation of tariffs to more favourable trade negotiation outcomes.
In a statement today, the central bank said the forecast remains subject to uncertainties surrounding the global economy, both on the downside and the upside.
'Favourable trade negotiation outcomes, pro-growth policies in major economies, continued demand for electrical and electronic goods, and robust tourism activity could raise Malaysia's export and growth prospects,' it said.
Meanwhile, BNM governor Datuk Seri Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said the Malaysian economy remains resilient despite global uncertainties, supported by the outcome of structural reforms undertaken over the years.
'The sustained strength in economic activity and moderate inflation provides a supportive environment to pursue structural reforms for a more resilient and competitive Malaysia in the future,' he said.
According to the central bank, headline inflation is projected to remain moderate, averaging between 1.5% and 2.3% in 2025, reflecting the more moderate cost and demand outlook since March 2025.
'Inflationary pressure from global commodity prices is expected to remain limited, contributing to moderate domestic cost conditions. In this environment, the impact of domestic policy measures is expected to remain contained,' it said.
BNM noted that the global economic landscape has undergone considerable changes since the announcement of Malaysia's 2025 GDP growth forecast in Bank Negara Malaysia's Economic and Monetary Review in March 2025. It said the global growth outlook is affected by shifting trade policies and uncertainties surrounding tariff developments, as well as geopolitical tensions.
'As a small open economy, Malaysia's growth prospects will be shaped by these developments. It is to Malaysia's advantage that our economy is facing these external headwinds from a position of strength.
'The latest indicators, including advanced estimates for the second quarter growth, continue to point towards sustained strength in economic activity. Domestic demand has been resilient and will continue to support growth going forward,' it said.
Favourable labour market conditions – particularly in domestic-oriented sectors – and policy measures will continue to underpin private consumption.
Meanwhile, BNM said expansion in investment activity will be sustained by progress in multiyear infrastructure projects, continued high realisation of approved investments and catalytic initiatives under the national development plans. – Bernama
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