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China's five-year plan enters final year: How much has it delivered?
On Wednesday, state media announced that the Party will hold a key meeting in October in Beijing to set priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session will bring together more than 370 senior officials.
As global growth slows and tensions with the United States persist, China is using this moment to assess where it stands—and where it's headed next.
What are five-year plans, and why do they matter?
In China, Five-Year Plans are more than just paperwork. Since 1953, these policy roadmaps have guided nearly every corner of the country's development — from steel production to school reform, internet regulation to green energy.
The plans are drafted by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), reviewed by the Communist Party leadership, and approved by the National People's Congress. Though China now operates a market economy, the plans remain central to its long-term strategy.
China's current five-year plan 2021-25
The current 14th Plan, adopted in 2021, came with a long list of goals. It aimed to grow the economy steadily, boost homegrown innovation, cut carbon emissions, and improve people's lives, while also keeping the country secure and stable in a rapidly changing world.
What China set out to do by 2025
According to the official plan document, the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) focused on eight big areas:
Grow smarter, not just faster – Shift from high-speed to high-quality development.
Rely more on domestic innovation – Invest in science and technology to reduce foreign tech dependence.
Boost local demand – Rely less on exports, more on consumer spending at home.
Go green – Cut emissions and lead in clean energy.
Keep reform going – Modernise the economy while still opening up to the world.
Make life better for people – Improve jobs, health care, education, and social security.
Balance the rural-urban divide – Reduce gaps between cities and the countryside.
Strengthen security – Safeguard China's economic and national interests.
China's scorecard: What's been achieved
Now in its fifth and final year, how close has China come to meeting those goals? According to a recent NDRC briefing and official data released by state media Xinhua, progress has been strong across most areas. A separate report by the US Chamber of Commerce, released in May 2025, also presented its own evaluation of China's economic strides. Here is what the reports say:
Economic growth
China's economy expanded by an average of 5.5 per cent from 2021 to 2024.
Evaluation: In line with the goal of stable and high-quality growth, especially considering pandemic-era disruptions and global economic headwinds.
US Chamber perspective: The US Chamber of Commerce acknowledged China's industrial advances, but cautioned that overcapacity and inefficiencies have weighed on productivity, contributing to a slower and less balanced growth model.
Technological self-reliance
Research and Development spending rose by nearly 50 per cent, totalling over 1.2 trillion yuan. Breakthroughs were reported in chips, AI models, and robotics.
Evaluation: Clear progress toward the goal of reducing dependency on foreign technology, though external sanctions continue to pose constraints.
US Chamber perspective: The Chamber's assessment agreed that China made strides in emerging sectors like robotics and AI, but emphasised ongoing vulnerabilities in semiconductors, advanced machinery, and biopharmaceuticals — sectors where foreign dependence remains high.
Domestic demand and economic restructuring
Consumption contributed 56.2 per cent to GDP growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the previous plan period.
Evaluation: Achieved intended rebalancing from investment-driven to consumption-led growth.
US Chamber perspective: The report added that despite these structural shifts, China's industrial policies continue to favour producers over consumers, limiting the potential for stronger domestic demand and creating persistent imbalances.
Green transition
Energy consumption per GDP unit fell by 11.6 per cent. Installed renewable energy reached 2.09 billion kW. New energy vehicles surged to 31.4 million.
Evaluation: Exceeded targets. China remains a global leader in renewable capacity and electric vehicle deployment.
US Chamber perspective: The Chamber recognised China's technological edge in clean energy, but noted that massive state-driven capacity—particularly in solar panels and EVs—has begun to distort global markets and escalate trade tensions.
Reform and opening-up
Despite geopolitical tensions, foreign trade and investment levels remained stable. The number of private enterprises surpassed 58 million.
Evaluation: Mixed success—private sector growth and trade continued, but foreign investment sentiment remains uneven due to policy unpredictability.
US Chamber perspective: The report mentioned that foreign firms continue to face market access restrictions, discriminatory procurement rules, and forced localisation, challenging China's narrative of openness and reform.
Employment and welfare
Over 12 million new urban jobs are created annually. Social insurance coverage remains above 90 per cent.
Evaluation: On track. Employment and social welfare targets were largely met despite economic pressure.
US Chamber perspective: The report observed that most policy benefits favoured state-backed industrial firms over household welfare, limiting broader livelihood gains and contributing to rising inequality.
Urban–rural integration
Urbanisation, average life expectancy, and food/energy production exceeded projections.
Evaluation: Progress exceeds expectations. Income disparities persist but are narrowing, according to NDRC metrics.
US Chamber perspective: While not a primary focus, the US Chamber of Commerce report noted that industrial policies have led to uneven regional outcomes, with wasteful duplication in some provinces and underinvestment in others.
National security and stability
Enhanced food and energy security, maintained social stability during the pandemic and economic restructuring.
Evaluation: Strong performance in stability and self-sufficiency areas. China continues to build capacity for crisis response and strategic autonomy.
US Chamber perspective: The Chamber added that the push for self-sufficiency is rooted in national security concerns, but warned it risks exacerbating global fragmentation, retaliation, and supply chain decoupling.
China's 15th five-year-plan (2026-30)
Officials say the gains made during the 14th FYP lay a strong foundation for the upcoming 15th Plan. With geopolitical tensions rising and global economic uncertainties deepening, the next plan is expected to prioritise technological independence, demographic policy, and large-scale industrial AI integration.
'We are entering a phase of industrial transformation, and the foundation laid over the past four years will support sustainable growth in the next cycle,' said Hu Qimu, deputy secretary-general of the Forum 50 for Digital-Real Economies Integration, speaking to the Global Times.
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The Print
15 hours ago
- The Print
Socialist planners aggravated unemployment problem
Now the question is whether it is possible and advisable to plan to achieve full employment in the short period, and whether our planners bent upon establishing socialist pattern of society can achieve the same. It is now recognised that the two objectives of achieving maximum rate of economic growth and the attainment of full employment do not go together in the short period of time though they are compatible in the long run. In the words of Shri V. V. Giri, 'The primary object of democratic planning in India should be to absorb the surplus work force by so drafting the programme of development as to yield full employment.' The same view persisted during the Third Five-Year Plan, 'Full utilisation of manpower resources can be achieved after a considerable period of development'. From these it is quite clear that the Planners have given a secondary importance to the employment aspect with the result that the backlog of unemployment is increasing from plan to plan. Our Five-Year Plans are based on certain objectives and one of them is to achieve maximum utilisation of manpower in order to achieve full employment but one must say with regret that employment is not the main objective with our planners with the result that little attention has been paid to the need for maximising employment which has been regarded as the bye-product of economic development. This view can be seen from the following excerpts. At the time of Second Five-Year Plan it was stated by the Planning authorities that 'the problem of unemployment especially in an underdeveloped country like ours can only be solved after a period of intensive development in determining the programme for the next five years the prime consideration is that at least the deterioration in the unemployment situation should be arrested'. The Directives in the Constitution envisage full employment and the right to work and live, but employment is full when everybody who wants to work can find it at established rates of pay. According to W. Beveridge, 'Full employment exists only when there are always more vacant jobs than unemployed men. It means that the jobs are at fair wages, of such a kind, and so located that the unemployed men can reasonably be expected to take them; it means, by consequence, that the moral lag between losing one job and finding another will be very short'. It must be remembered here that in normal times 100% of the working population in employment can never exist; a minimum of unemployment is bound to exist but in our country unemployment problem has become a very serious problem next to exchange crisis; it was argued that free capitalist countries failed to achieve full employment and only socialist economy can do the trick but our socialist planners have aggravated the problem by adopting unrealistic fiscal policy. By imposing direct as well as indirect taxes in the name of emergency and development incentives to save and invest have been greatly reduced. Employment cannot be increased without investment. Investment is based on the expectation of profit, which is a sine qua non of economic progress, but our Finance Minister has imposed super profit tax in the last budget so that the private sector will have no incentive to invest and as a consequence of this, employment will tend to fall. The backlog of unemployment at the end of Second Plan in 1961 is reckoned at 9 million. The number of new entrants to the labour force during the Third Plan period (1961-66) will be as many as 17 million. The Planners are expected to provide employment opportunities for about 14 million people. Thus the reserve army of man-power at the end of the Third Plan will be as high as 12 million persons. For this reason, the planners should give priority to the eradication of unemployment once and for all during the Third Plan. The Mahalanobis strategy, in this respect, has miserably failed because it was based on a wrong assumption, namely, that increasing purchasing power through investment in heavy industries in the public sector, and through expenditure on health, education, and social services, and, secondly, a planned supply of consumer goods could meet the increasing demand. The problem of unemployment can be solved. This strategy would have been successful if capital were available in adequate quantity to expand the consumer goods industries when the development and expansion of heavy and basic industries were given top priority in the Second Plan period. The Planning Commission gave more emphasis on cottage and household industries rather than on large-scale consumer goods industries. The problem of unemployment could not be tackled satisfactorily by the Planning Commission due to the absence of the creation of adequate new employment opportunities in large-scale industries producing consumer goods. The problem of unemployment would not have taken a serious turn during the Second Plan period if the planners had curtailed the volume of investment in heavy industries and released capital was utilised for the expansion of employment in the large-scale consumer goods industries. As a consequence of this policy the price level would have come down and the value of rupee would have gone up. During the Second Plan period the prices rose by 6 per cent per annum and this was mainly due to the large dose of deficit financing during the last two years of the Second Plan. In the Third Plan we find that the Planning Commission has not attempted to frame a co-ordinated policy for creating employment opportunities for 26 million persons. The Planning Commission has chalked out a programme for creating employment for 14 million persons, but whether even this can be achieved or not is problematic. The imposition of super profit tax will certainly kill the incentive of the private sector to invest and this will aggravate the problem of unemployment in the Third Plan and the Fourth plan will begin with a backlog of unemployment not less than 15 million persons. The major burden of reducing unemployment lies in raising the level of investment in the economy which is the key factor in increasing employment as well as to increase the tempo of economic development. To achieve this objective, the private sector should be given proper scope to play a vital role in the economic growth of our economy. The present policy based on ideological grounds should be reversed and then alone the twin problems of unemployment and rapid economic growth can be solved. The private sector should not be treated with indifference. Economic growth should not be the monopoly of the public sector alone. Rural as well as urban unemployment can be successfully tackled if labour intensive or capital saving techniques are adopted. This may lead to a slow progress in our planning but that is inevitable. Planning aims at utilisation of available resources in the best possible manner to attain the higher standard of living. Economic growth of a country is as much dependent on the development of its people and the people who are denied employment are the people who are denied the chance of development. In a country like ours with large unemployed and underemployed manpower planning for employment is preferable because employment will bring about an increase in output. Abundant labour supply should be regarded as an asset rather than a liability in the sense that it presents opportunities for augmenting production. Because of this factor, employment planning has a greater significance in a country like India. A suitable strategy for employment planning can be thought out only in regard to the future. In the Third Plan greater attention is paid to growth than to employment. The unemployment problem is bound to become serious and the Fourth and Fifth Five-Year Plans should give top priority to the employment problem. It is estimated that during the Fourth and Fifth Plan, addition to the labour force would be about 23 and 30 million. This reinforces the case for an active population policy. In the Third Plan, the Government has also failed to frame a realistic population policy to control the rate of growth of population. The price policy has failed to keep the rising prices under control. In this respect, one cannot expect that the Government should be able to create employment opportunities for 14 million persons. In this regard, Japanese experience has a good bearing for India. In that country, the absorption of manpower in non-agricultural occupations has shown a very great rise in the inter-war period. This was mainly due to the labour intensiveness of Japanese small-scale units. This policy can be followed in our country by giving small-scale industries, which are employment-creating industries. They will not only create employment opportunities but will also increase the total supply of consumer goods, which is scarce in relation to demand. In these industries, the gestation period is shorter than in the large-scale heavy industries, which are capital intensive. So the problem of unemployment can be eradicated in the next two Five-Year plans if top priority is given to the employment aspect instead of the growth aspect. Economic development and employment must go hand in hand and this can be achieved by adopting a free market economy. The planned economy has failed to solve the problem. West Germany and Japan have shown the way. This essay is part of a series from the Indian Liberals archive, a project of the Centre for Civil Society. It is taken from the economic supplement of The Indian Libertarian and titled 'Planning and Employment in India', published on 15 April 1963. The original version can be accessed here.
Hindustan Times
a day ago
- Hindustan Times
Blockades, blackouts and bullets: China invades Taiwan on screen
On an island in the Kinmen archipelago, in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese soldiers are marching through a dark tunnel. 'The enemy is landing,' one of their number says. As they emerge onto a gloomy beach, they begin to notice hordes of fighters from the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) camouflaged in the shadows. Lights flash in the darkness; the sound of machine-gun fire pierces the air. 'Zero Day Attack', a ten-episode drama, makes its debut on Taiwanese TV on August 2nd. It is the first mainstream film or TV show made in the country to imagine how China might try to annex the island, making its broadcast a cultural milestone. (The show will be released in Japan later in the month, but international distribution has yet to be announced.) Taiwan's screenwriters have avoided depicting a cross-strait war, considering the subject too contentious. But Cheng Hsin-mei, the showrunner of 'Zero Day Attack', is concerned, having observed the Chinese Communist Party's crackdown in Hong Kong in recent years. 'We want to bring awareness while we have the freedom to create,' she says. 'We could lose our freedom in the future.' Ever since the Kuomintang (KMT) fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese civil war, China's leaders have threatened to retake the island. At first, this did not seem realistic, as China did not have much firepower. Then, after China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, Taiwanese began investing in China: the resulting economic intertwinement encouraged many Taiwanese to think a war with China was improbable. Most Taiwanese are still blasé about the Chinese threat. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine—not to mention China's recent military exercises in the Taiwan Strait—have convinced some that conflict could happen. Puma Shen, a member of Taiwan's parliament who acted as a consultant on 'Zero Day Attack', says the show reflects such shifting attitudes. In 2021, when he co-founded the Kuma Academy, a non-governmental organisation which teaches civil defence, many Taiwanese were critical of such efforts and denied that Taiwan needed a 'pre-war mentality'. Now, however, increasing numbers are signing up for workshops on topics such as information warfare and evacuation planning. Taiwan's government, too, wants to up the ante. Last year a new policy on conscription came into effect, extending the term from four months to 12. This year Lai Ching-te, the president, announced plans to increase defence spending to over 3% of GDP, up from 2.5%. So how does 'Zero Day Attack' envisage an attack unfolding? It begins with a Chinese spy plane disappearing in waters near Taiwan. Under the guise of a search-and-rescue mission, China deploys aeroplanes and ships and starts to enact a blockade. 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Doctored videos circulate on social media, spreading fake news about a missile strike. Pro-China influencers start agitating online and presenting Taiwan's democracy as a sham. China's government infiltrates criminal gangs, using them to create havoc on the streets. China proposes a peace agreement, which stipulates that Taiwan accept the policy of 'one country, two systems'—the model of governance China imposes on Hong Kong, which supposedly allows for autonomy but in practice leaves Hong Kong at the mercy of the Communist Party. Some politicians, desperate for resolution, support the agreement. Each episode of 'Zero Day Attack' is directed by a leading Taiwanese film-maker and looks at the events from a particular perspective. One episode follows the president-elect; another focuses on the tv stations; still others explore how rich Taiwanese or working-class people would be affected. The result is a scorching depiction of how war would shake society. Warning shots As you might expect for a drama about a loaded geopolitical subject, 'Zero Day Attack' has not had zero problems in production. Some consider the show to be propaganda for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which firmly rejects China's claim to the island. Politicians in the KMT, which favours more cordial ties with China, have pointed out that Taiwan's culture ministry had invested in the series (though the ministry does this for many local productions). Another of the show's main investors is Robert Tsao, a billionaire founder of a semiconductor company, who has also given money to civilian-defence initiatives including the Kuma Academy. Both Mr Tsao and Mr Shen have been labelled 'separatists' by China. Ms Cheng says some Taiwanese talent agents refused to put forward their actors for the show for fear that they would get blacklisted in China—which would be bad for business, given that China has the world's biggest tv and film audience. So Ms Cheng sought out people who were not worried about being banned. One of the show's China-backed rabble-rousers, Big John, is played by Chapman To, an actor from Hong Kong turned Taiwanese immigrant. He was a vocal supporter of Hong Kong's democracy movement in 2014, which caused Chinese audiences to boycott his films and production companies to refuse to work with him. What is most intriguing is that the series is not nearly as apocalyptic as the original 17-minute trailer, released last year, promised. It imagined 'Total Chaos. Shortages of supplies, complete interruption of water, electricity and telecommunication.' These things do not transpire in the finished show. Ms Cheng says the trailer was designed to be terrifying as a hook to get audiences interested. Mr Shen, the consultant, denies that alarming scenes were cut because of political pressure. Lo Ging-zim, one of the directors, has been adamant that 'Not a single word of the script had been modified by the government.' 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Still, the series could have portrayed Taiwanese who favour unification more sympathetically. 'Zero Day Attack' arrives on screen months after the pLA rehearsed an amphibious invasion and naval blockades, as well as disrupting supply lines and bombing energy facilities. No one knows whether China will one day make good on its threats. But after watching this show, no one can claim not to have been warned. For more on the latest books, films, TV shows, albums and controversies, sign up to Plot Twist, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter
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First Post
a day ago
- First Post
What will FBI's new office in New Zealand do? Kash Patel's suggestion leaves China fuming
FBI Director Kash Patel provoked diplomatic discomfort in New Zealand by suggesting the opening of a new office in the capital aims to counter China's influence, drawing polite dismissals from Wellington and ire from Beijing. read more FBI Director Kash Patel's remarks on the opening of the US agency's new office in New Zealand has drawn ire from China. (Photo: AP) FBI Director Kash Patel has provoked diplomatic discomfort in New Zealand and a sense of unease in China, which is looking to dominate waters in South Pacific, including the Tasman Sea, with the suggestion that the new mission's aim was to counter Chinese influence in the region. Patel's suggestion drew polite dismissals from New Zealand and ire from China. Patel was in Wellington on Thursday to open the FBI's first standalone office in New Zealand and to meet senior officials. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The arrangement aligns New Zealand with FBI missions in other Five Eyes intelligence-sharing nations, which also include the United States, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. More from World India, New Zealand advance FTA talks in second round held in New Delhi, next round in September What FBI will do in New Zealand? Speaking about the new office, the FBI chief, in remarks made in a video released on Thursday by the US Embassy, said the New Zealand branch would help counter Chinese Communist Party's influence in the contested South Pacific Ocean. The Wellington office will provide a local mission for FBI staff, who have operated with oversight from Australia since 2017. Interestingly, New Zealand ministers who met Patel, the highest-ranking Trump administration official to visit New Zealand, looked quite uncomfortable with the FBI director's suggestion, and quietly dismissed his claims. What New Zealand said on FBI's new office, and China? The New Zealand government issued a statement on Thursday, emphasising joint efforts against crimes such as online child exploitation and drug smuggling. It did not mention anything about China, whose naval drills in recent times have raised security concerns in New Zealand. 'When we were talking, we never raised that issue,' Foreign Minister Winston said Thursday. Judith Collins, minister for the security services, said the focus would be on transnational crime. 'I don't respond to other people's press releases,' she said when reporters noted Patel had mentioned China, Radio New Zealand reported. Trade Minister Todd McClay rejected a reporter's suggestion on Friday that Wellington had 'celebrated' the office opening. 'Well, I don't think it was celebrated yesterday,' he said. 'I think there was an announcement and it was discussed.' A sharp response from China to Patel At a briefing Friday, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun denounced Patel's remarks. 'China believes that cooperation between countries should not target any third party,' he said. 'Seeking so-called absolute security through forming small groupings under the banner of countering China does not help keep the Asia Pacific and the world at large peaceful and stable.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD New Zealand, the smallest Five Eyes partner, has faced ongoing pressure to align with U.S. stances on China, its largest trading partner, while carefully balancing relations with Beijing. Analysts said the FBI chief's comments could vex those efforts, although New Zealand has faced such challenges before. 'It's in New Zealand's interest to have more law enforcement activities to deal with our shared problems,' said Jason Young, associate professor of international relations at Victoria University of Wellington. 'It's perhaps not in New Zealand's interest to say we're doing this to compete with China.' US-China tussle in Trump's second presidency Patel's visit came as the Trump administration has sought to raise global alarm about Beijing's designs. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in June said China posed an imminent threat and urged Indo-Pacific countries to increase military spending to five per cent of GDP. New Zealand has traditionally avoided singling out individual countries when discussing regional tensions, Young said. 'I'm sure the US would like New Zealand to speak more forthrightly and characterize the China challenge in a similar way to the United States,' Young said. New Zealand, a country of 5 million people, was once assumed by larger powers to be of little strategic importance. But its location and influence in the contested South Pacific Ocean, where Beijing has sought to woo smaller island nations over the past decade, has increased its appeal to countries like the US. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Peters, the foreign minister, told The Associated Press in 2024 that U.S. neglect of the region until recent years had in part been responsible for China's burgeoning influence there. He urged US officials to 'please get engaged and try to turn up.' Not everyone welcomed the expanded FBI presence Online, the new office drew rancor from New Zealanders who posted thousands of overwhelmingly negative comments about the announcement on social media sites. A weekend protest against the opening was planned. Young said it was unlikely people posting in anger took issue with cross-border law enforcement efforts in general. 'I think it would be more a reflection of some of the deep unease that many people in New Zealand see with some of the political choices that are being made in America at the moment,' he said. (With agency inputs)
