Potential Tropical Storm Chantal Map Shows States at Risk
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Four states are at risk of seeing impacts from Tropical Storm Chantal should it form over the holiday weekend.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that if the storm appears this weekend, it will be well ahead of schedule for the season, as the average third storm of a hurricane season typically forms around August 3.
Why It Matters
If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no United States-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche last weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico.
What To Know
The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a disturbance near Florida throughout this week. The chances that the disturbance will form into a tropical storm have steadily increased.
As of Wednesday afternoon, chances of formation within the next seven days were at 40 percent. On Tuesday, there was a 30 percent chance, and on Monday, a 20 percent chance. The chances that the storm will form within the next 48 hours remain near zero.
The disturbance area has shifted slightly north, highlighting Florida and the southeast coast of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as having potential for development.
A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Chantal could form near four states this weekend.
A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Chantal could form near four states this weekend.
National Hurricane Center
DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather anticipates the southeast coast of the U.S. has a higher chance of development compared to the Gulf side. If it forms, it will likely do so between July 5 and 7.
Regardless, DaSilva said there will be a rainy weather pattern for Florida and parts of the U.S. Southeast this weekend. Rain could also hit the Carolinas.
"It does not look like this is going to blow up into a hurricane or anything like that," DaSilva said. "The environmental conditions are not favorable for that."
What People Are Saying
The National Hurricane Center said in a forecast: "An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast."
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "We call that homegrown development because it's basically developing close to home. This type of development is very common early in the season and also late in the season."
DaSilva added, "There's nothing unusual about this. This is the area you'd be looking this time of the year."
What Happens Next
If the storm develops, it is expected to do so between July 5 and 7. Florida and the U.S. Southeast can expect a rainy weekend either way.
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Tropical threat grows near Florida ahead of July 4th weekend
Chances for a tropical system to develop continue to increase, although there is a bit of good news for Florida over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to forecasters. Well, maybe not great news if rain over a holiday weekend isn't your thing. An area near the U.S. coast is being monitored for slow tropical development in the coming days. The large area of interest is located a few hundred miles to the east of Florida's Space Coast, according to AccuWeather. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The system has a 60% chance for development over the next seven days and 20% chance over the next 48 hours. The good news is that forecasts call for potential development to occur in the Atlantic, instead of in the Gulf, which could have sent the system over Florida. 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"Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability," AccuWeather said. The system of low pressure expected to develop over the holiday weekend is being squeezed between a high-pressure system moving east from the Ohio Valley and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather. 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Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Showers and storms expected throughout the day. First near the coast in the morning, then shifting inland late, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said. Highs today range from 84 in Fort Myers to 81 in Sarasota. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. 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