Trump's Golden Dome missile-defence push on Canada leaves Ottawa with few good options
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It didn't work out.
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The space-based part proved elusive, but technology has now advanced enough to make more of it feasible, at least in theory. Trump envisions a system that includes space-based weaponry that can take out missiles — ballistic and hypersonic — and he wants Canada to help pay for building this defensive wall over North America.
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'I told Canada, which very much wants to be part of our fabulous Golden Dome System, that it will cost $61 Billion Dollars if they remain a separate, but unequal, Nation, but will cost ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st State,' the president posted on social in May. Since then, the quoted price has gone up to US$71 billion.
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Ottawa has acknowledged that discussions with the U.S. are underway, but they're happening against a backdrop of strained U.S.-Canada relations over defence spending and a trade war. With pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney to cool Washington's belligerence, the Golden Dome's feasibility as a technology may matter less than the symbolism of Canada's willingness to collaborate with the White House. And none of the options for Canada, whether it's spending tens of billions of dollars to buy into a risky initiative or spurning a testy and vindictive president, are painless.
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U.S. missile defense currently includes the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) in Alaska and California, which is designed to intercept ICBMs in space and has a 55 per cent test success rate. The Patriot system defends battlefield and critical sites against shorter-range missiles closer to their targets, and the mobile THAAD system (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) provides regional defence against various missile threats, also closer to their targets. The naval Aegis system, meanwhile, offers effective naval-based missile interception – and the Patriot, THAAD and Aegis all generally outperform GMD.
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Golden Dome aims to integrate all of the above — the ground and sea-based technologies — while adding a new space-based layer of satellites equipped with sensors and interceptors to detect incoming threats and take them out at various stages of their trajectories.
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This would improve U.S. missile defence beyond just dealing with potential ballistic missiles coming from rogue nations such as North Korea or Iran, said Patrycja Bazylczyk, a research associate with the Missile Defense Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS.
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