Wall Street futures boosted by US-EU trade deal ahead of action-packed week
U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a framework trade pact on Sunday, which will halve the import tariff rate on the EU to 15%.
At 5:32 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 18.75 points, or 0.29%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 113.5 points, or 0.48% and Dow E-minis were up 85 points, or 0.19%.
The anticipation of the imminent U.S.-EU deal propelled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record closing highs on Friday, while the blue-chip Dow remained about 0.4% away from its all-time high hit in December.
A flurry of deals with U.S. trade partners, including Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, helped drive Wall Street to new highs, with all the major indexes posting solid gains last week.
Other major economies are still scrambling to strike deals ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline. The Sino-U.S. negotiations later in the day are expected to extend their trade truce for another 90 days.
Markets' unprecedented momentum will be tested with this week's earnings parade from "Magnificent Seven" tech giants Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab, Amazon , and Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab.
Last week, Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab surprise capital expenditure hike revived optimism in AI investments and returns, while Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab disappointed by foreshadowing difficult upcoming quarters due to dwindling EV subsidies.
Tesla rose 1.7% in premarket trading after the automaker signed a $16.5 billion deal to source chips from Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab.
The Fed will commence its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with traders widely expecting the central bank to hold interest rates steady. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the odds of the central bank delivering the first cut of the year in September stood at 59.8%.
Policymakers' comments will be closely analyzed for hints about future rate cuts and whether concerns over tariff-related inflation have eased. The meeting comes after Trump's relentless criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering borrowing costs.
Trump on Friday suggested Powell might be ready to lower interest rates.
Among a deluge of key economic indicators this week, attention will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditure report (PCE) - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - and non-farm payrolls data to gauge how tariffs have affected consumer prices and the labor market.
Ether-linked companies Bitmine Immersion Technologies , BTCS (BTCS.O), opens new tab, and GameSquare Holdings (GAME.O), opens new tab rose between 2.7% and 5.3% after Ethereum prices hit over a seven-month high.
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Morning Bid: Remembering the downsides to tariffs
July 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Asian markets have been quietly picking up the pieces after the U.S./EU tariff party turned into a bust. It was like being relieved because somebody only burned half your house down. Hey, at least they left the kitchen and the bathroom. European stock futures are fractionally firmer and the single currency has steadied just under $1.1600. The euro's rapid retreat was not entirely a surprise given how crowded the long euro/short dollar trade had got, and the suspicion is speculators will soon be selling the dollar again. After all, come Friday U.S. consumers will be paying a minimum of 15% on all imports into the country, and for the foreseeable future. This tax will squeeze demand and profit margins at home, while eating into export earnings across the globe. These are called beggar thy neighbour policies for a reason. There's also the rather naive notion that such "deals" guarantee a period of certainty ahead. Just look how Trump suddenly gave Russia 10 to 12 days to move on a ceasefire with Ukraine, having set a deadline of 50 days earlier this month. This did not seem in any way planned. Trump just said it off the cuff at a media conference at his golf club in Scotland. If such a deadline can be changed on a whim, who's to say anything agreed in these trade deals cannot be altered at his pleasure. Trump has seen how trade and tariffs can dominate the global news cycle; there's no way he's giving that up anytime soon. Talks with China, for instance, are set to continue in Stockholm today and everybody assumes the deadline for an agreement will be extended by another 90 days. This, entirely incidentally, will allow time for Trump to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and personally claim yet another biggest deal of all time. For its part, Wall St remains in a world of its own, counting on upbeat results from megacaps this week to justify valuation measures that are the highest since the late 1990s. Meta (META.O), opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab are due on Wednesday, Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab the day after. A slew of European companies also report earnings today. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - U.S. data on job openings, June trade balance and Conference Board consumer confidence - Fed's two-day meeting starts
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Taiwan's second-quarter economic growth likely rose with tech demand strong: Reuters poll
TAIPEI, July 29 (Reuters) - Taiwan's trade-reliant economy likely grew at a quicker pace in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the prior three months, driven by strong tech demand, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday, though U.S. tariffs continue to cloud the outlook. Taiwan's gross domestic product is expected to have grown 5.7% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, the poll of 25 economists showed, up from 5.48% in the first quarter. The economists' forecast for preliminary GDP data, which is due on Thursday, varied widely from an expansion of just 4.1% to as much as 8%. Taiwan's trade-driven economy could be substantially affected this year if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with his tariff policy. Taiwan was due to get a 32% tariff, until Trump paused the whole plan for 90 days in April. Taiwan's tariff talks with the United States have continued, with no outcome yet. "Prospects for developing Asia and the Pacific could be dented further by an escalation of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions," the Asian Development Bank said in a report published last week. "Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and raise energy prices," it added. Taiwan is a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab, and home to the world's largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ( opens new tab, whose semiconductors are widely used for artificial intelligence applications. TSMC this month reported a record, forecast-beating quarterly profit, but warned that future income might be hit by U.S. tariffs, though perhaps not until the fourth quarter. China's economy slowed less than expected in the second quarter in a show of resilience against U.S. tariffs. In May, the Taiwan government's statistics bureau trimmed its full-year 2025 economic growth outlook to 3.1% from a previous 3.14%, citing tariff concerns. Taiwan's preliminary GDP data will be released in a statement with limited commentary. More detailed and revised figures, including forward-looking forecasts, will follow a few weeks later.
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China ramps up exports of refined fuels as margins rise
LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 29 (Reuters) - China's exports of key refined fuels are on track to jump to the highest in 16 months as refiners take advantage of rising profit margins. Shipments in July of middle and light distillates, which include diesel and gasoline, are forecast to reach 26.63 million barrels, or 859,000 barrels per day, data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler shows. This figure is up from 796,000 bpd in June and the highest since the 1.06 million bpd in March 2024, the data shows. China's refiners have substantial spare capacity to ramp up output while their unused export quotas will allow them to take advantage of rising profit margins for refined fuels, especially gasoil, the building block for diesel and jet kerosene. The crack spread, or profit margin, for producing a barrel of 10 ppm gasoil in Singapore ended at $20.43 a barrel on Monday, up from the prior close of $21.00. The margin is down from the 16-month high of $22.85 a barrel from July 18, but is 56% higher than the low so far this year of $13.05 on March 25. China's gasoil exports are forecast at 6.22 million barrels in July by Kpler, the highest since June 2024 and up from just 3.56 million last month. Data from LSEG Oil Research is slightly more bullish, with gasoil exports pegged at 6.55 million barrels for July, more than double the 3.13 million recorded for June. China's exports of other middle distillates, such as jet kerosene, also rose in July, with Kpler estimating shipments of 9.59 million barrels, up from 8.65 million in June and the most since January. There is also scope for China to increase shipments in coming months, as refiners still have unused export quotas. Total export quotas granted by Beijing to refiners amount to 45 million metric tons and official customs data shows total refined product exports of 27.19 million in the first half of 2025, a decline of 9.7% from the corresponding period in 2024. China's refiners have been increasing output, with throughput rising 8.5% in June to 15.15 million bpd, official data showed on July 15. That was the highest daily processing rate since September 2023 and it is likely that refiners are seeking to take advantage of rising prices for refined fuels while processing crude secured when oil prices were trending lower at the start of the second quarter. China is also shipping more gasoline, with LSEG estimating July exports of 6.7 million barrels, up from 5.7 million in June and the most since March. The profit margin for gasoline in Singapore has not been as strong as that for diesel, ending at $7.43 a barrel on Monday, up from $7.41 at the previous close. The margin is down from the year's high so far, of $11.83 a barrel on May 9, but is still double the low of $3.68 hit on January 21. The current pricing for refined fuels is enough to encourage further Chinese exports in coming months. The case may be further supported if new European Union sanctions targeting Russian fuel exports do result in a shifting of flows around the globe. The EU is banning imports of refined products made from Russian crude, which will mainly impact refiners in India, who have been buying discounted Russian oil and exporting fuels to both Europe and Asia. While Chinese refiners also buy Russian crude it will be easier for them to show which individual plants do not use Russian oil, and therefore can still export to Europe. Currently hardly any Chinese refined products end up in Europe, but it becomes a possibility if Indian refiners are forced to look for new markets outside Europe, and European buyers are forced to look for new suppliers. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
