Fed watch, Japan's rally, and Indonesia's record run
In this week's Market Focus Weekly from The Business Times, host Emily Liu speaks with Gary Tan, CEO of Allspring Global Investments Singapore, about what's moving the numbers and whether investors should brace for a change in direction.
Why listen?
The Fed's next move and the 150-point cut chatter
A softer US CPI print has traders convinced a September cut is coming. But Tan explains why a 150-basis-point slash is unlikely without an economic shock, and posits what's more realistic.
Japan's rally and the policy cross-currents
A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU
Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business
Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies.
Sign Up
Sign Up
The Nikkei and Topix are climbing fast, boosted by governance reforms, a weak yen, and strong earnings. But with unusual public pressure from the US on Japan's interest rates, how long can the momentum last?
Indonesia's record-breaking run
Foreign funds are flooding back, macro indicators are stabilising, and the Jakarta Composite Index is flirting with all-time highs. Here Tan shares what's driving the rally and whether in his opinion it's built to last.
If you want the market signals without the noise, you'll want to listen in.
Catch the full episode at bt.sg/podcasts or email your thoughts to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg .
---
Written and hosted by: Emily Liu ( emilyliu@sph.com.sg )
With Gary Tan, CEO, Allspring Global Investments Singapore
Edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: Emily & Chai Pei Chieh
A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
---
Follow Market Focus Weekly podcasts every Friday:
Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus
Amazon: bt.sg/mfam
Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap
Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp
YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt
Website: bt.sg/mktfocus
Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice.
Discover more BT podcast series:
BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks
BT Correspondents: bt.sg/btcobt
BT Podcasts: bt.sg/pcOM
BT Branded Podcasts: bt.sg/btbrpod
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Times
7 hours ago
- Business Times
European shares log second weekly gain, focus on Trump-Putin talks
[Bengaluru] European shares came off multi-month highs on Friday (Aug 15), as declines in heavyweight tech and financial shares offset gains from some corporate earnings, while investors monitored a crucial US-Russia summit. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.1 per cent lower, after hitting a near five-month high earlier in the session. Investor focus was on a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska later in the day that investors hope could pave the way for a resolution of the Ukraine conflict. Trump said he would not negotiate on behalf of Ukraine and would let Kyiv decide whether to engage in territorial swops with Russia. Analysts at Jefferies said that any progress towards de-escalation could benefit consumer, construction, materials and growth-oriented sectors, which have been relatively underinvested in Europe. Aerospace and defence stocks fell 0.8 per cent ahead of the summit. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers, said: 'Barring something truly outrageous – positive or negative – markets are not necessarily treating it (US-Russia summit) as important from a market point of view.' Technology stocks fell 0.6 per cent, weighing on the Stoxx 600 index. ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, fell 1 per cent after US peer Applied Materials lowered its fourth-quarter earnings forecast due to weak demand in China and impacts from tariff uncertainty. The Dutch firm had issued a similar warning in mid-July, saying it might not achieve its 2026 growth forecast. Chip stocks BE Semiconductor and ASMI dropped 3.3 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. On the other hand, miners were the top gainers, adding 0.8 per cent. Antofagasta rose 1.2 per cent after a jump in half-year core earnings on Thursday, helping peers, including Anglo American. Healthcare shares, which have taken a beating this year from uncertainty around Trump's pharma tariffs, were on track for a recovery. The healthcare index logged its seventh consecutive session of gains, its longest streak since late January. Regional bourses were mixed, with Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE declining, while France's CAC and Spain's IBEX posted gains. The Stoxx 600 also logged a second weekly gain, driven by expectations of a US rate cut in September and strong corporate earnings. Pandora bottomed the Stoxx 600, falling 18.4 per cent, after the Danish jewellery maker flagged weakening sales in its key European markets. This was its steepest one-day fall in seven years. Standard Chartered fell 7.2 per cent after a US Republican lawmaker called for probe against the bank over alleged 'ongoing sanctions evasion'. NKT jumped 8.6 per cent to top the Stoxx 600, logging its best day since May 2022, after the Danish power cable solutions provider raised its outlook for 2025. REUTERS
Business Times
19 hours ago
- Business Times
Indonesia targets 5.4% growth in 2026 with big spending on food security, energy, free lunches
[JAKARTA] Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has proposed a 2026 budget of 3,786 trillion rupiah (S$297.7 million), aimed at strengthening food and energy security while sustaining his high-profile free lunch programme. The plan also seeks to leverage the country's new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, and private investment to drive the economy towards 5.4 per cent growth next year. Prabowo said the budget is designed to ensure Indonesia remains strong, self-reliant and prosperous. It was presented to parliament on Friday (Aug 15), following the president's first State of the Nation address ahead of the country's 80th Independence Day on Sunday. Indonesia will allocate 164.4 trillion rupiah for its food security programme, funding the development of new farmland and subsidised fertiliser for 9.26 million tonnes, as the government aims to boost agricultural self-sufficiency and reduce imports. State revenue is projected at 3,147.7 trillion rupiah next year, with an estimated budget deficit of 638.8 trillion rupiah, or 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product. Meanwhile, inflation is targeted at around 2.5 per cent. 'The government is committed to continuing budget efficiency measures to keep the deficit as low as possible,' Prabowo said, adding that he expects Indonesia to achieve a zero budget deficit by 2027-2028. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up The government and parliament have nearly six weeks to review and deliberate on the draft before it is finalised and passed into law in October. Nafan Aji Gusta, senior market analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, said Prabowo's 2026 plans are highly optimistic, but market participants are waiting to see how the policies will be implemented. The Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.41 per cent on Friday, after briefly reaching an all-time high during midday trading. Record levels were hit for a second consecutive session, supported by optimism over potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and increased clarity on US tariffs. 'The budget reveal could potentially boost market confidence, allowing investors to optimise their portfolio performance through various adjustments,' said Gusta, noting that the upcoming Bank Indonesia policy meeting on Aug 20 and the inclusion of several Indonesian firms in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are expected to drive passive inflows. Weakening purchasing power Indonesia's economy grew 5.12 per cent in the second quarter, beating expectations. However, the nation of 280 million is grappling with weakening consumer purchasing power and looming export pressures from US tariffs. US President Donald Trump decided to impose a 19 per cent levy on Indonesian goods, in exchange for reducing trade barriers for American products. Unlike previous administrations, Prabowo's 2026 budget does not include a targeted salary stimulus for civil servants aimed at boosting household purchasing power. Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies, said the government's efficiency measures under Prabowo have affected consumer purchasing power, as reduced government-led activity has dampened demand for goods and services. 'Indonesia needs to prioritise measures to support household spending, which is currently under pressure. Government spending and quality investment could play a key role in boosting purchasing power,' he said. Yudhistira said Indonesia is facing challenges from volatile commodity prices, such as palm oil, coal and nickel, which could affect government revenue. Sovereign wealth fund drive South-east Asia's largest economy will fast-track US$38 billion in downstream projects through Danantara, targeting the mining, coal, agriculture, fisheries and renewable energy sectors. 'The role of Danantara will be optimised, including by involving national and global private sectors in a synergistic and collaborative manner,' said Prabowo. He aims to boost oil and gas production next year while expanding the use of renewable energy through the development of clean power plants, including solar, hydro and geothermal. Indonesia has allocated 402.4 trillion rupiah for energy security in 2026. Prabowo said that the country must aim to achieve 100 per cent electricity generation from new and renewable energy within 10 years, or even sooner. The 73-year-old president has vowed to boost economic growth to as much as 8 per cent during his five-year term through populist measures. These include a multi-trillion-rupiah free lunch programme, a move that has raised investor concerns over its potential impact on state finances and budget discipline. Next year, Prabowo plans to nearly double the free lunch programme budget to 335 trillion rupiah, from 171 trillion rupiah this year, with a goal of reaching 82 million children. Crackdown on illegal resources Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, pledged that a broader crackdown would be launched on the illegal exploitation of natural resources, after a survey of palm plantations found that 3.7 million hectares (ha) were found to be operating unlawfully. Five million ha of palm plantations have been placed under scrutiny. Prabowo also announced the government's seizure of 3.1 million ha of illegal plantations with assistance from the military. He said the government is also planning a crackdown on mining, adding that it had received reports of as many as 1,063 illegal operations throughout the vast, mineral-rich archipelago. He did not specify what type of mines or the commodities they were extracting. Prabowo added that the government would take action against businesses found to be hoarding and exploiting key commodities in Indonesia. Large-scale rice mills would also be forced to obtain government permits to ensure rice quality and affordability.
Business Times
19 hours ago
- Business Times
Fed watch, Japan's rally, and Indonesia's record run
It's been a week of market milestones in Asia from Wall Street optimism spilling over into Tokyo to Indonesia's equity surge and Singapore's brighter growth outlook. But how much of this momentum is real, and how much is just the market getting ahead of itself? In this week's Market Focus Weekly from The Business Times, host Emily Liu speaks with Gary Tan, CEO of Allspring Global Investments Singapore, about what's moving the numbers and whether investors should brace for a change in direction. Why listen? The Fed's next move and the 150-point cut chatter A softer US CPI print has traders convinced a September cut is coming. But Tan explains why a 150-basis-point slash is unlikely without an economic shock, and posits what's more realistic. Japan's rally and the policy cross-currents A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up The Nikkei and Topix are climbing fast, boosted by governance reforms, a weak yen, and strong earnings. But with unusual public pressure from the US on Japan's interest rates, how long can the momentum last? Indonesia's record-breaking run Foreign funds are flooding back, macro indicators are stabilising, and the Jakarta Composite Index is flirting with all-time highs. Here Tan shares what's driving the rally and whether in his opinion it's built to last. If you want the market signals without the noise, you'll want to listen in. Catch the full episode at or email your thoughts to btpodcasts@ . --- Written and hosted by: Emily Liu ( emilyliu@ ) With Gary Tan, CEO, Allspring Global Investments Singapore Edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Emily & Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Weekly podcasts every Friday: Channel: Amazon: Apple Podcasts: Spotify: YouTube Music: Website: Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: BT Correspondents: BT Podcasts: BT Branded Podcasts:
