Indonesia's ballistic missile deployment, a first in Southeast Asia, could shift regional power balance

CNA

11 hours ago

SINGAPORE: Indonesia's quiet deployment of a Turkish-made short-range ballistic missile system in East Kalimantan is a pivotal move that has 'meaningfully' shifted the regional balance of power, say analysts.
From a region where no Southeast Asian state possessed an operational modern ballistic missile capability, Indonesia now holds a rapid-response, high-precision strike option that could reshape regional deterrence dynamics, they said.
Closely tied to the relocation of its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara (IKN), and occurring amid simmering tensions in the South China Sea, the move signals a calculated shift by Indonesia from a largely defensive posture to a more agile, forward-leaning deterrence posture, they add.
Geopolitically, it underscores Jakarta's pivot from traditional Western reliance toward diversified ties with partners such as Turkiye — bolstering its leverage in global power dynamics.
The choice of the first deployment reflects geopolitical, geographic and symbolic considerations, experts say.
East Kalimantan was likely chosen for its relative safety from direct attack, its strategic position overlooking key northern sea lanes, and its role as the site of the new capital — making it ideal for hosting a survivable missile force to protect both national territory and IKN.
The KHAN missile system — a 280-km-range platform developed by Turkish arms manufacturer Roketsan — was first spotted by military enthusiasts at the Indonesian Army's Raipur A Yonarmed 18 base in Tenggarong in East Kalimantan, the province that will host the future capital.
Pictures of the KHAN missile, produced by Turkish manufacturer Roketsan, surfaced on the Sahabat Keris Facebook page on Aug 1 and have been widely reported by defence blogs, as well as Indonesian news portal Kompas.
Ballistic missiles are rocket-propelled missiles that can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. The range of the KHAN missiles extends Indonesia's strike radius into disputed maritime corridors, noted news site Defence Security Asia.
Indonesia had placed its KHAN missile order in November 2022 and is the first military force outside of Turkiye to have the missile in its inventory, Roketsan's deputy general manager Murat Kurtulus reportedly said at the time.
In response to queries from CNA, Indonesian army spokesperson Brigadier General Wahyu Yudhayana confirmed the delivery of the short-range ballistic missile from Turkiye to Indonesia.
He said it is part of the first batch procured by Indonesia's Ministry of Defence and has not been officially handed over to the Indonesian Army.
As such, he was unable to comment on whether the system has officially been deployed in East Kalimantan.
He did not give details on how many KHAN missiles Indonesia has acquired and where it is deploying them.
Defence Ministry spokesperson Brigadier General Frega Ferdinand Wenas Inkiriwang told CNA Indonesia last Thursday (Aug 7) that the ministry has not monitored any updates regarding the missile.
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S FIRST – BUT NOT THE LAST?
With Indonesia becoming the first Southeast Asian country to publicly deploy a modern tactical ballistic missile system – a capability traditionally reserved for major military powers outside the region – there is potential for the start of an arms race in the region, said Ridzwan Rahmat, Singapore-based principal defence analyst at Janes.
He pointed out that until now, Southeast Asian countries have generally avoided procuring tactical ballistic systems due to their 'inherently offensive nature as opposed to purely defensive platforms.
But that norm may now shift.
Indonesia's move is likely to prompt other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to reassess their own missile and air defence capabilities
Within the region, Vietnam is known to possess Soviet-era Scud-class ballistic missiles and North Korean derivatives like the Hwasong-6, with ranges of 300 to 500 km, but those systems are Cold War-era and not newly acquired.
Myanmar, meanwhile, is widely believed to own North Korean Hwasong-5 and Chinese BP-12A ballistic missiles, possibly integrated via the SY-400 platform. However, no official confirmation exists of regular operational use.
Indonesia's KHAN missile acquisition has meaningfully shifted the regional balance of power, said Ridzwan.
'I am certainly concerned about the possibility of an arms race,' he said.
'This is the first missile of its kind in the region and, until now, countries have refrained from acquiring tactical ballistic missiles due to their range and the nature of the weapon, which is harder to intercept given its limited engagement window.'
Indonesia's move carries dual-edged strategic implications, said Beni Sukadis of the Jakarta-based think tank Indonesian Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies (Lesperssi).
While it enhances Indonesia's defensive posture, it may raise concern among neighbouring countries and major powers with vested interests in the region, he said.
'Some may perceive this move as a form of military escalation, potentially fueling an arms race in Southeast Asia.'
While the KHAN deployment is legitimate within Indonesia's framework of national defence, the country must continue to prioritise transparency and defence diplomacy, in order to avoid creating perceptions of undue threat and to help maintain regional stability, said Beni.
But it is important to understand this development as rooted in Indonesia's 'active and defensive' posture, and not as a tool for expansion or provocation, said Khairul Fahmi, a military expert at the Jakarta-based Institute for Security and Strategic Studies (ISESS).
'In other words, this reinforcement is a calibrated response to regional and global security shifts,' he said.
Even so, he acknowledged it could serve as a psychological catalyst for certain countries in the region to consider similar options.
Vietnam or Thailand, for example, may begin evaluating the requirements and implications of developing comparable missile capabilities – particularly if tensions in the South China Sea escalate or regional competition intensifies, he said.
Khairul said he predicts such responses are more likely in the medium term of three to seven years, as not all ASEAN countries possess the fiscal capacity, defence-industrial base, or strategic justification for rapid adoption.
On why Indonesia has so far not disclosed the number of KHAN missile units purchased, Khairul said it is understandable as such information is typically restricted or classified.
'Full transparency on the quantity, specifications and deployment locations could expose vulnerabilities and undermine national defence interests,' he said.
WHY EAST KALIMANTAN?
The deployment of the KHAN missile near Indonesia's future capital is also significant, analysts said.
'It sends a clear signal that Indonesia is serious about building a robust defence architecture to safeguard the new seat of government from a range of threat scenarios — including potential long-range precision missile strikes,' said Khairul.
The seeds of the missile deployment were visible as early as January 2024, when Indonesian army field artillery commander Major General Mohammad Naudi Nurdika inspected the Army's Raipur A facility in East Kalimantan province.
At the time, he confirmed preparations to host a new missile-based combat unit in Nusantara, also known as Ibu Kota Negara (IKN), according to a post on Instagram by the Indonesian Army's Field Artillery Centre.
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The relocation of the nation's capital from Jakarta to IKN is not merely administrative or political in nature, agreed Beni.
It carries significant implications for the repositioning of Indonesia's military infrastructure, including command headquarters and strategic defence systems, he said.
'Given that East Kalimantan will become the new seat of government, the presence of reliable and integrated defence systems is crucial to safeguarding both the territory and the nation's center of power,' Beni explained.
This positioning places Kalimantan within Indonesia's core and intermediate defence layers for the future capital.
One of the possible factors for choosing East Kalimantan for deployment, Khairul noted, is that the province is geographically insulated from direct threats, making it an ideal location for logistics bases and the launch of strategic weapon systems with a high degree of survivability.
East Kalimantan also holds strategic value due to its proximity to the Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Lane (ALKI) II, one of Indonesia's three designated archipelagic sea lanes, that is frequently traversed by foreign warships and military aircraft as part of international navigation.
ALKI II runs through the Makassar Strait between Kalimantan and Sulawesi, the Flores Sea and Lombok Strait. It permits international vessels to transit between the Indian and Pacific oceans under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which grants the right of passage through designated archipelagic sea lanes.
East Kalimantan's drier and firmer terrain also provides ideal conditions for hosting mobile missile units. Mounted on an 8x8 Tatra high-mobility platform, KHAN is designed for rapid 'shoot-and-scoot' operations — fire, relocate, and evade counterstrike, said Janes' Ridzwan.
'Compared to Java, where soft terrain limits mobility, Kalimantan offers ideal launch geography because it has higher ground which increases the range of the missile,' said Ridzwan.
'It also gives Indonesia direct oversight over vital maritime routes like the Makassar Strait and Celebes Sea.'
Ridzwan told CNA this positions Indonesia to respond more quickly to developments from the northeast, particularly the South China Sea, an area of increasing naval activity and diplomatic tensions.
While Indonesia is not a claimant of the South China Sea, China's 'nine-dash line' claiming most of the waterway overlaps with Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near the oil- and gas-rich Natuna Islands.
DIVERSIFICATION WITH AN EYE TO TECH TRANSFER
The KHAN purchase signals another shift in Indonesia's defence orientation, analysts noted.
Under the presidency of Prabowo Subianto, the Southeast Asian heavyweight is moving away from reliance solely on traditional Western partners and building new strategic alignments with countries such as Turkiye, India and other emerging powers, Khairul said.
This is reflected in recent big-ticket acquisitions — from the 2022 order of 42 Rafale jets from France and the 2023 US approval for up to 36 F-15EX Eagle II fighters, to Jakarta's 2025 contract for 48 Turkiye-made KAAN stealth fighter jets, and its ongoing participation in South Korea's KF-21 Boramae fighter jet development programme.
It is also evaluating China's J-10C fighter jets and in talks on BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles with India.
The diversification is crucial for reducing dependency and enhancing Indonesia's bargaining position in global power dynamics, he said.
'It also stands as a strategic declaration that missile capability is no longer the exclusive domain of great powers,' said Khairul.
'Indonesia is asserting its role as a credible regional actor committed to maintaining balance through responsible modernisation.'
The move aligns with Indonesia's broader efforts to modernise its military arsenal and enhance the interoperability of its defence systems in the face of contemporary threats – both conventional missile attacks and unconventional foreign interventions, Beni said.
The missile acquisition is also part of a broader strategic partnership between Indonesia and Turkiye that includes opportunities for technology transfer and the potential for local production in future, Khairul noted.
In June at the Indo Defence 2025 exhibition, one of two contracts Indonesia signed with KHAN's manufacturer Roketsan was for a planned joint venture agreement to develop local capabilities for the 'assembly, domestic production, and sustainability of missile technologies', according to Roketsan.