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Modi's Cyprus gambit: How India is reshaping IMEC, countering Turkey's influence
While Turkey calibrates its regional aspirations, PM Modi's Cyprus overture may well foreshadow a new phase of geopolitical realignment in the eastern Mediterranean read more
Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Cyprus on June 15th (Sunday) as part of the three-nation tour. The second leg of the multi-nations tour would be in Canada for the G7 summit, and the third leg to Croatia. This is the first visit by an Indian prime minister in the last 23 years to Cyprus, after the one by Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2002. During this visit, the Prime Minister is to hold talks with President Nikos Christodoulides and address business leaders at Limassol.
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The prime minister Narendra Modi's visit does not appear to be just a routine stop. Through the prima facie terrain screening, it looks like the visit is designed to send a powerful message across the geopolitical chessboard. The visit aims to firmly integrate Cyprus into India's connectivity plans, particularly about the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), while also subtly redrawing the boundaries for Turkey.
A New Delhi-Nicosia Axis: More Than Just Friendship
Prime Minister Modi's visit transcended mere camaraderie and marks a significant upgrade in the India-Cyprus strategic partnership. Amidst the world of chaos and strategic positioning, Cyprus remains one of India's time-trusted and dependable friends. Cyprus supports India's permanent membership in the extended United Nations Security Council; vis-à-vis, it has also extended full support to the India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement, which helps India satisfy its energy needs and fosters economic growth and development. The island nation also supports India's position on Kashmir and expressed solidarity with India after a terror attack in Pahalgam on 22 April, condemning the terrorist attack in unequivocal terms.
The visit saw discussions focusing on expanding cooperation in trade, investment, security, and technology, and enhancing people-to-people exchanges. The prime minister also highlighted India's recent achievements, such as being one of the fastest-growing economies, a rise in civil aviation, an increase in ease of doing business, and India is destined to be the third-largest economy very soon.
The prime minister also mentions that Cyprus is an excellent tourist destination. The most significant development was the inauguration of the India–Greece–Cyprus (IGC) Business and Investment Council. This trilateral platform is more than merely a business partnership. It is about forgoing new regional dynamics and leveraging collective strength in shipping, renewable energy, civil aviation and digital payment services. The Cypriot president said it is a 'historic visit' and a 'new chapter in a strategic partnership that knows no limits'.
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Cyprus: The Missing Link in the IMEC Puzzle
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was launched on September 9, 2023, during the G20 summit in New Delhi. The IMEC is India's ambitious blueprint for a seamless route connecting Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Cyprus' strategic location in the Eastern Mediterranean is indispensable for the full potential of IMEC.
Cyprus is sitting aside key shipping lanes linking the Suez Canal to European ports. The deep-water harbours of Cyprus, particularly Limassol and Larnaca, are well suited to handle large-scale transhipment, offering a midpoint for cargo moving between IMEC's Gulf and European nodes. The emergence of Cyprus as an energy player with the discovery of offshore natural gas reserves satisfies the IMEC's energy diversification goals. This is also crucial as Europe is looking to reduce dependency on Russian gas. The integration of Cyprus into IMEC is crucial for fortifying the western terminus of the corridor.
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The IMEC is important for India, as this is the Eurasian alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), extending the benefits of this trade route to South Asia (Pakistan and Bangladesh if future spur routes integrate them), the Middle East, Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey if included), and Central Asia (depending on future expansion). However, the proactive engagement of India with Cyprus is not solely driven by economic pragmatism; rather, it carries significant geopolitical implications. The integration of Cyprus into IMEC is a subtle but unequivocal recognition of the Republic of Cyprus's sovereignty and integrity. The alignment of responsible global powers, like India, being a proponent of a rule-based international order sends a powerful global message. The progress of IMEC will give prominence to Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Redrawing the Lines for Turkey
In past years Turkey has deepened its military ties with Pakistan, being the second largest arms supplier to Pakistan after China. Turkey was also the only country among 39 members of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to support Pakistan's removal from the grey list. Turkey constantly supports Pakistan's position on Kashmir, and Pakistan reciprocates the same on Ankara's claims on Cyprus.
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India initiated operation 'Dost' (friend) to aid and rescue victims of disaster, coupled with medical supplies in the wake of the solid earthquakes that jolted Turkey and Syria in 2023. Whereas Turkey called India's calculated, precise and measured response to the Pahalgam terror attack 'provocative' and supported Pakistan's call for an investigation into the April 22 terrorist attack, despite knowing India has rejected Pakistan's demand for a joint investigation, learning from the experience of the Pathankot Airbase attack.
The posturing of Turkey has not been taken well by New Delhi. Brahma Chellaney, an Indian geostrategist and professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, writes, 'Turkey is likely to view Modi's visit to gas-rich Cyprus as a signal of India deepening ties with Ankara's regional rivals, including Greece, Armenia and Egypt'.
The prime minister's visit to Cyprus is a subtle signal to Turkey on its growing alignment with Pakistan and constant criticism of India on the issue of Kashmir. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has always dismissed IMEC, stating no major trade corridor can bypass Turkey. By bolstering IMEC through Cyprus, India is directly challenging Turkey's claim of indispensability in East-West connectivity.
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The strategic embrace of Cyprus allows India to counterbalance Turkey's growing regional influence. India, by strengthening its relations with Turkey's regional rivals, including Greece, Armenia, Egypt, and now Cyprus, is reshaping the geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean.
India's proactive engagement with Cyprus underscores a clear intent to play a significant role in shaping IMEC and signals to Turkey its intent to recalibrate regional geopolitics. By deepening ties with Nicosia, Delhi bolsters IMEC's viability, subtly challenging Ankara's assertive posturing in the Eastern Mediterranean. The diplomatic gambit underscores India's role as a proactive architect in Eurasian connectivity. While Turkey calibrates its regional aspirations, Modi's Cyprus overture may well foreshadow a new phase of geopolitical realignment in the eastern Mediterranean.
Suhasini is an Assistant Professor at Bennett University (Times of India Group) and Pranjal Chaturvedi is a Doctoral Research Fellow at Bennett University. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
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