Pix on Politics Daily: Final NYC mayoral poll
Join us daily on PIX11+ streaming at 1 p.m. as we invite the newsmakers, lawmakers, and key players shaping policies that impact local communities.
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On Monday, Dan Mannarino speaks with executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, about a survey of Democratic mayoral primary of early voters and likely voters from PIX11 News, Emerson College, and The Hill that shows Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani passing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the last round of a ranked-choice voting simulation.
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Newsweek
9 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Disapproval Rating 'Stuck'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Donald Trump's approval rating is "stuck," according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by Quantus Insights between July 21 and 23 among 1,123 registered voters, showed that Trump's approval rating stands at 47 percent, while 50 percent disapprove. That is relatively unchanged from the previous poll conducted earlier this month, which put Trump's approval rating at 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. Every poll conducted by Quantus Insights since early April has put Trump's approval rating between 47 and 48 percent, while his disapproval rating has stayed between 48 and 50 percent. "For a president who thrives on momentum, the static nature of these numbers is a signal: the base is holding, but the middle isn't moving," Quantus pollster Jaon Corley wrote. The poll shows that the ceiling that is forming among Trump's supporters is being defined by sharp and widening demographic splits—by gender, race, education, and geography—that limit Trump's reach even as his base remains intensely loyal. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House, Friday, July 25, 2025, in Washington. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House, Friday, July 25, 2025, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP But according to Democratic pollster Matt McDermott, this could be a problem for the Republican Party heading into the 2026 midterms. "You don't win elections by doubling down on your base while bleeding swing voters," he told Newsweek. A Firm Republican Backbone Among Republican voters, Trump remains overwhelmingly popular. Eighty-seven percent of Republicans approve of his performance, including 91 percent of white Republican men and 91 percent of white Republican women, virtually unchanged from the July 14—16 wave, when approval stood at 90 percent among Republicans overall. His approval is also strong among white noncollege voters (46 percent), rural residents (49 percent), and white men overall (56 percent), many of whom formed the backbone of his 2024 electoral coalition. In particular, rural white males give Trump 54 percent approval, with just 46 percent disapproving, reinforcing the president's solid hold on the white working-class male vote. Cracks Emerge Among Women and Younger Voters By contrast, Trump is struggling with key swing constituencies. Among women, his net approval is -10 points (43 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove), and the gender gap remains stark. While 52 percent of men approve of his job performance, just 43 percent of women do—a nine-point gap that has remained consistent since mid-July. Younger voters also continue to show deep dissatisfaction. Just 46 percent of voters aged 18—29 approve of Trump, with 51 percent disapproving, similar to the earlier July poll. Among women aged 18—29, approval is just 38 percent, while disapproval reaches 58 percent. But young men have a very different view of Trump. Among men aged 18—29, Trump hits 57 percent approval with a +17 net margin. As a result, Corley said that the notion that young voters broadly oppose Trump is outdated. "Trump's support is male-heavy, younger than expected, and hardening along gender lines. The idea that 'young voters oppose Trump' is outdated. True for women, increasingly false for men," Corley wrote. Independent Voters Slipping Away Meanwhile, the poll shows that as the 2026 midterms approach, Trump's support among independents is eroding. Just 38 percent of independents now approve of his performance, compared to 58 percent who disapprove—a stark 20-point deficit that has worsened since earlier in the month, when his net approval among independents stood at -17 percent. Notably, white independents, once a potential swing bloc for Trump, now disapprove of him by a 57 to 39 percent margin. Approval among nonwhite independents is even lower at 34 percent, with nearly two-thirds disapproving. Racial Gaps Widen Among Black voters, Trump posts 39 percent approval overall, with 50 percent of Black men backing him, a historic high for a Republican. But the poll also reveals a wide gender split, with just 30 percent of Black women backing him. But overall, Trump has seen a boost in support from Black voters, who broke for him 32 percent to 63 percent in the last poll. Among Hispanic voters, the divide is less pronounced. Trump draws 42 percent approval overall, with slightly higher ratings among Hispanic men (46 percent) than women (39 percent). His overall support from Hispanic voters is unchanged from mid-July. "The racial polarization that has long defined American politics is still in place but it's fraying at the edges, and in a country decided by razor-thin margins, the edges matter," Corley wrote. Trump's Approval Plateaus—But Cracks Are Growing Beneath the Surface Quantus' latest poll aligns closely with other recent national surveys, all of which suggest that Donald Trump's support has hit a ceiling, with his approval ratings stabilizing but showing little sign of growth. RMG Research, for example, currently has Trump at 50 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval—a nearly identical pattern to Quantus. Since late May, RMG has shown Trump's approval hovering between 50 and 52 percent, with disapproval consistently in the 46 to 48 percent range. This points to a remarkably steady public perception of the president, without major gains or losses. Emerson College Polling paints a similar picture. Their latest numbers place Trump at 46 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval. That net disapproval of +1 has been unchanged across their past three surveys, underscoring how locked-in public opinion has become. Fox News polling shows Trump at 46 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval—identical to their June findings. Despite shifts in the news cycle, these figures have shown no movement over the past month. The Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage also register Trump at 50 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval in their most recent poll. Back in April, their numbers were 46 to 44, indicating that while Trump's approval has ticked up slightly and disapproval has edged down, the overall net approval has remained steady at +2. Meanwhile, the YouGov/Economist poll continues to show Trump underwater, with 41 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval. That's virtually unchanged from a month ago, reinforcing the broader narrative: Trump's support base is solid, but stagnant. But other polls have shown Trump's approval ratings dip to a second-term low nationwide. Newsweek's approval tracker currently places Trump at a net minus 7 rating, with 45 percent of Americans approving and 52 percent disapproving. It is one of his lowest net approval scores in recent weeks. The most recent Marquette University survey shows Trump at 45 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, a net rating of -10, down two points from -8 in May. It is the lowest rating Marquette has recorded for Trump during his second term. Similarly, Navigator Research found his approval at 42 percent, with 54 percent disapproving, marking a net disapproval rating of +12—a four-point drop from June and also his worst rating from Navigator since returning to office. More dramatic declines appear in Gallup's latest polling, which shows Trump with just 37 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval—a net rating of -21, down from -17 last month. The Bullfinch Group also reports weakening support, with Trump now at 41 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, a net rating of -14, down slightly from -13 in June.
New York Post
38 minutes ago
- New York Post
Odds that Trump will release Epstein files surge above 50% for first time
The odds that the White House will release any of the Epstein files spiked above 50% this week, with gamblers putting $5 million so far on the question. Kalshi, a site that allows people to make a wager on the outcome of almost any event, saw the number of people betting 'yes' on the question skyrocket Wednesday — after news broke that the US Department of Justice told President Trump back in May that his name appeared in the controversial documents. 'We have seen dramatic activity in the Epstein files market,' Jack Such, head of media at Kalshi, told The Post. Advertisement The odds jumped Friday to 60%, after news broke Ghislaine Maxwell gave the DOJ info about '100 different people' linked to the sex offender. The largest trade was $3,000 when the odds were just 21% – if Trump releases the files, the gambler will walk away with close to $15,000, Such said. Advertisement Kalshi's won't pay out unless the files contain genuinely new, previously unreleased material — not just a rehash of what's already public. 'Prediction markets are the most accurate tool available to predict future political events,' said Such, who claimed 'Kalshi routinely outperforms polls, expert opinion and other forms of prediction.' 3 A report this week said the DOJ told Trump in May he was in the Epstein files. Getty Images Just two weeks ago, the odds that any new files related to the late pedophile would be released was priced at 13%. Advertisement Prediction markets were among the few prognosticators to correctly call Zohran Mamdani's June Democratic primary victory in the NYC mayoral race. Rank-and-file lawmakers are pushing House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to hold a vote to compel the release of the documents, once the House of Representatives returns from its summer recess Sept. 2. 3 The Justice Department has said that more than 1,000 young women and girls were victimized by Epstein. AP Johnson sent lawmakers home early Monday, arguing Congress needs to give the Trump administration 'space' to handle the hot-button issue on its own. Advertisement A House Oversight subcommittee voted 8-2 Wednesday to subpoena the DOJ for the Epstein files, with Reps. Nancy Mace (R-NC), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Brian Jack (R-GA) crossing party lines to back Democrats. 3 There's been mounting pressure on the Trump administration to release the Epstein files. AP Meanwhile a top Justice Department official met with Maxwell Thursday and Friday in Florida, as the GOP-led House Oversight Committee subpoenaed the convicted madam for testimony, with a deposition tentatively set for Aug. 11.
Axios
2 hours ago
- Axios
Trump ignites chain reaction with early redistricting gamble
The Trump White House is pushing ahead with an extraordinary effort to game the system by redrawing congressional maps ahead of the midterms. Democrats are finding it tricky to fight back. Why it matters: The push to add Republican House seats is sparking a chain reaction as the parties fight tooth-and-nail over the majority. "Why the f**k are we responding and reacting to the other side instead of taking offense on these things?" potential Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke told Democrats this week. But going on offense is easier said than done: Democrats would need a court order or special election in most states where they could try to draw more favorable maps. The big picture: Republicans are hoping to pick off more than a half-dozen Democratic-held seats by redrawing congressional maps ahead of 2026. Redistricting for partisan advantage is nothing new, but it's usually done after the census every ten years. The next one's scheduled for 2030. In Texas, Trump has encouraged Republicans to embark on a redistricting project that he's said could net the party as many as five seats. In Ohio, which is required by law to redraw its House map, party strategists believe they can gain two or three seats. In Missouri, Republicans believe they can pick up another seat. Zoom in: Gov. Greg Abbott and other Texas Republicans were at first hesitant to take up redistricting, the Texas Tribune reported. After Trump's call to Abbott, it appeared on the special session agenda. Texas Democrats have limited options to push back, but have considered breaking quorum to prevent a vote on the issue. Republicans are looking to South Texas after Trump performed well with Latino voters there. It could backfire: Adding Democratic voters to GOP districts to build more Republican districts elsewhere risks turning safe seats into competitive races, said Jon Taylor, department chair and political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio. The other side: Democrats, led by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have vowed to punch back by drawing roughly as many new Democratic seats. Newsom will need to act fast. In his case, he's suggested calling a special election to green light redistricting ahead of 2026. Newsom hosted California and Texas lawmakers in Sacramento on Friday to plot strategy. Other big Democratic states — such as New York, New Jersey and Illinois — also have redistricting limits in their state constitutions. They'll need courts to help, or push through fast amendments. Between the lines: The White House has no bigger priority in the midterms than keeping the House. " The battlefield is extremely narrow compared to 10 or 20 years ago. To the extent the GOP can widen it, on favorable terms, that's a huge advantage," said Matt Gorman, a former National Republican Congressional Committee official. Should Democrats seize the lower chamber, it would paralyze Trump's legislative agenda for his final two years in office and potentially lead to him getting impeached. Trump was impeached following the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won the House majority. The bottom line: There's already a warning sign for Republicans as they weigh redistricting.
