Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Is About to Report Q2 Earnings. Here's What to Expect
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Investors will pay attention to management's commentary on the demand backdrop and the impact of tariffs.
The company reported mixed results for the first quarter, citing a slowdown in consumer spending and unfavorable weather. As seen in this chart from Main Street Data, CMG's restaurant-level operating margin contracted to 26.2% in Q1 2025 from 27.5% in the prior-year quarter. This decline was due to higher input costs and increased labor expenses.
Analysts' Views Ahead of CMG's Q2 Earnings
Ahead of the Q2 results, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger increased the price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill stock to $65 from $60 and reaffirmed a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst expects CMG's same-store sales in the second half of 2025 to improve following a challenging first half. Geiger anticipates that Chipotle's Q2 results will reflect pressured sales due to macroeconomic challenges and tough comparisons. That said, the analyst expects the underlying trends to improve through the quarter, with initiatives in place to support a positive sales and traffic inflection in the second half of 2025.
Geiger expects the company to keep its full-year guidance largely unchanged. Overall, the analyst believes that Chipotle remains well-positioned to deliver positive transaction growth and mid-single-digit same-store growth over the long term, with potential for margin expansion and accelerating unit development to support a 20% EPS growth. He views CMG as one of the 'highest quality' growth stocks in the sector.
Likewise, KeyBanc analyst Eric Gonzalez raised the price target for CMG stock to $60 from $58 and reaffirmed a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst believes that sentiment 'skews most positively' on YUM! Brands (YUM) and Shake Shack (SHAK), while investors seem to be 'warming up' to Chipotle and McDonald's (MCD) more than they have in the past few months, as these two companies are expected to fare better in July than they did during the second quarter.
Gonzalez increased the price target for CMG stock to reflect improving same-store sales trends in the second half of the year. While the analyst expects CMG to slightly lag the Street's Q2 same-store sales estimate, he noted that KeyBanc's data suggests improved sales trends in recent weeks, which makes the Q3 2025 same-store sales growth estimate of 2.0% seem conservative. Given aggressive menu innovation in the second half and 'undemanding' year-over-year comparisons, Gonzalez is optimistic that CMG will exit 2025 with solid momentum.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on Chipotle Stock Ahead of Q2 Print
TipRanks' AI stock analysis reflects an Outperform rating on Chipotle stock with a price target of $61, reflecting a 16.3% upside potential. The AI analyst rating is based on strong financial performance and cash flow management. However, technical analysis reveals mixed signals, and valuation looks elevated.
Here's What Options Traders Anticipate Ahead of CMG's Q2 Earnings
Using TipRanks' Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don't worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 7.07% move in either direction in Chipotle stock in reaction to Q2 results.
Is CMG Stock a Buy or Sell?
Currently, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill stock based on 21 Buys and eight Hold recommendations. The average CMG stock price target of $60.44 indicates 15.2% upside potential from current levels.
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