Examining the state of the Marlins at the break, what has been learned, what we're hearing

Miami Herald

6 days ago

This Marlins season — which has exceeded any reasonable expectations, with a 44-51 record that's good for third place in the National League East (ahead of the high-spending Braves) — has been very much about player development. But this season also is all about gaining clarity on personnel, a process that will continue as the All-Star break ends.
Miami – which returns to the field Friday at home against Kansas City (7:10 p.m., FanDuel Sports Florida) – needs to identify which players can be part of a winning core. In that regard, much has been achieved during a first half highlighted by an 11-game road winning streak.
Outfielder/All-Star representative Kyle Stowers (.293, 19 homers, 54 RBI) and catcher/designated hitter and Rookie of the Year candidate Agustin Ramirez (.242, 14 homers, 41 RBI, 20 doubles in 71 games) have established themselves as long-term building blocks. That's the best news of an uplifting first half of the season.
According to a source, the Marlins also now see shortstop Otto Lopez (.250, 11 homers, 48 RBI) and second baseman Xavier Edwards (.288, .352, 24 RBI, 16 steals) as starters moving forward. Any team is always open to upgrades, but both players are seen internally as 2026 starters.
Outfielder Dane Myers (.282) and backup catcher Liam Hicks (.274) have strong enough bats to be projected as bench components of a winning team. (Expect prospect Jakob Marsee to be given a chance to win the center field later this year or next spring.)
Starting pitcher Janson Junk (4-1, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Ronny Henriquez (2.60, five saves, 64 strikeouts in 45 innings) and Lake Bachar (3.02 ERA) have established themselves as reliable components. Edward Cabrera (3.61 ERA in 16 starts) has finally fulfilled his tantalizing potential; the Marlins will listen on trade offers.
The Marlins know for sure that Eury Perez is every bit as much the potential star following Tommy John surgery as he was before the procedure. He was dominant in his final three starts before the All Star break, allowing one run with 21 strikeouts in 18 innings.
But as this rebuilding project unfolds under the direction of baseball operations president Peter Bendix, several key issues still need clarity. Among them, with some insight into the team's plans:
▪ Will the Marlins deal Sandy Alcantara and Cabrera before the July 31 trade deadline?
According to a source, Miami is listening on both but would trade either only for good value. There is no urgency to move either unless it's an excellent package in return.
After seeming to turn the corner briefly in his return from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara was pounded for a 9.53 ERA in his final three starts before the All-Star break.
Not only is his 7.22 ERA worst among all MLB pitchers who have started at least 10 games, but opponents have been successful in all 24 stolen base attempts against him.
Opponents are hitting .271 against him. By comparison, batters hit .212 against him when he won the National League Cy Young award in 2022 and .235 against him in his career.
On the positive side, advanced metrics suggest he is pitching much better than this numbers indicate.
Though Cabrera has been brilliant for nearly two months, the Marlins are listening on offers in part because past injury issues must be factored into any long-term decision.
Cabrera has been on the injured list 14 times in four-plus seasons, but his latest malady (right posterior elbow discomfort) probably won't force him to miss a start, manager Clayton McCullough suggested before the All Star break.
▪ Who else could be traded?
The Marlins are very open to moving veteran starter Cal Quantrill (3-8, 5.62 ERA).
Outfielder Jesus Sanchez (.259, .321, 7 homers, 31 RBI in 75 games) and pitcher Anthony Bender (2.06 ERA, two saves in 40 games) are also considered available.
▪ So if the Marlins deal Alcantara and/or Cabrera this month or this winter (and both are big ifs) and deal Quantrill for a low-level prospect, what's the rotation the rest of this year and next year?
Ryan Weathers (3.28 ERA in five starts) has been out since early June with a left lat strain and isn't expected back until September.
If Alcantara and Cabrera are traded and if Weathers doesn't make it back this season, the remainder of the rotation to finish out this season (beyond Perez and Junk) could be Adam Mazur and two others from a group that includes, among others, Valente Bellozo and Tyler Phillips, who was a starter in the minors and has a 3.69 ERA for the Marlins out of the bullpen this season.
The Marlins remain bullish on Mazur and Robby Snelling, who were both acquired in the Tanner Scott trade with San Diego. Mazur (who allowed four runs in 5 ⅔ innings of one Marlins start this season) has a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts at Triple A Jacksonville and is likely to pitch again in the big leagues this season.
For now, the Marlins are inclined to have Snelling finish out the season in the minors, though that's subject to change. Snelling, rated by MLB.com as Miami's No. 3 prospect, pitched five scoreless innings in his first start in Jacksonville last week after posting a 3.61 in 14 starts at Double Pensacola.
And what about next season? If Alcantara and Cabrera are traded, the rotation could include Perez, along with Junk, perhaps Braxton Garrett (returning next season from last December's elbow surgery) and potentially Max Meyer, who had a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts and should be back for spring training after season-ending hip surgery. Weathers, Mazur and Snelling also would be very much in the running for rotation spots.
Any possible Alcantara or Cabrera deal could net a starting pitcher or multiple starters who are in the big leagues or close to it.
And the Marlins' top prospect, left-hander Thomas White, isn't far away. He has a 2.19 ERA in his first three starts at Double A Pensacola after posting a 2.83 ERA in nine starts at High A Beloit, where he struck out 53 in 35 innings. He's a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter long term.
▪ What will be done at first base and third base?
The Marlins are expected to look for help at both positions this offseason.
Instead of blossoming as the Marlins hoped, third baseman Connor Norby regressed (.241, .289 on base, six homers, 26 RBI, 73 strikeouts in 72 games). Now he's out indefinitely with left wrist inflammation; he has been out a specialist in Arizona to determine the next step. The Marlins remain optimistic about Norby's future, but it wouldn't be surprising if they add a third baseman as competition this offseason.
The Marlins also plan to address first base this winter, according to a source. Eric Wagaman (.241, .284, 20 doubles, five homers, 33 RBI in 86 games) has been decent but projects more as a part-time player.
They like 22-year-old power-hitting prospect Deyvison De Los Santos but want him to continue fine-tuning his swing. He's hitting .242 (.304 on base) with nine homers, 33 RBI and 64 strikeouts in 58 games and 254 plate appearances. Acquired from Arizona in the AJ Puk deal, he had 40 homers and 120 RBI last season.
▪ If Jesus Sanchez is traded, what does the starting outfield look like beyond Stowers?
Griffin Conine (.281 in 20 games) flashed before sustaining a season-ending shoulder injury in April; he will get another look next spring.
Whether Sanchez remains past the trade deadline, further clarity must be gained on two players: Heriberto Hernandez and Marsee, who could be the center fielder of the future if he plays well when given the chance.
Is what's being witnessed from 25-year-old Hernandez (.325, .376, three homers, 12 RBI in 85 plate appearances) an anomaly or a sign that he's capable of being a long-term component? Hernandez's simmering bat wasn't necessarily expected after he hit .220 in 40 games at Jacksonville this season.
Though the players acquired from San Diego for Luis Arraez struggled (or were injured) initially, Marsee has come on strong and could get a promotion to the big leagues at any point.
Marsee has a .371 on base average at Triple A Jacksonville, with 12 homers, 34 RBI and 40 steals in 52 attempts in 85 games. The Marlins love his upside.