
Seagate Stock To $85?
Question: How would you respond if you owned Seagate (NASDAQ: STX) and its value plummeted by 60% or more in the upcoming months?
While this may seem extreme, it is not without precedent. Seagate's stock has experienced such severe declines previously, and based on its current valuation, history might repeat itself.
Up to this point in 2025, Seagate has achieved an impressive 65% return year-to-date, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 5% increase. This rise has been driven by structural improvements in the company and a timely shift towards next-gen technologies like HAMR (Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording). Seagate is currently benefiting from a upswing in the data-storage market, which is being bolstered by the increasing demand for generative AI and cloud infrastructure.
However, behind the AI enthusiasm and operational improvements lies a more cautionary narrative. Separately see, What's Next For Nike Stock?
Here's the point: The main takeaway is that during a downturn, Seagate stock could suffer considerable losses. Data from 2020 shows that STX stock lost around 35% of its value within just a few quarters, experiencing a peak-to-trough drop of about 58% during the 2022 inflation crisis, underperforming significantly compared to the S&P 500. This raises the question: Could the stock see a sell-off and potentially fall to $85 if a similar scenario were to occur? As a rule, individual stocks tend to be more volatile than diversified portfolios. Consequently, if you seek growth with decreased volatility, you might want to investigate the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and yielded returns over 91% since its launch.
Why Is It Relevant Now?
Seagate produces high-capacity HDDs (hard disk drives)—essential infrastructure for storing the immense datasets necessary for training and deploying large language models (LLMs). While SSDs (solid-state drives) are the go-to choice for fast-access storage, HDDs remain dominant in cold storage and hyperscale cloud archives—key applications for companies such as Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon.
Seagate introduced its Mozaic 3+ platform last year, which achieves 3 TB per platter through HAMR technology and incorporates it into its Exos 30 TB+ drives, which have already begun shipping to hyperscale cloud clients. At its June 2025 investor conference, Seagate announced that engineering samples of 40 TB HAMR drives (10×4 TB platters) have already been delivered, with mass production anticipated in the first half of FY 2026. The company intends to launch Mozaic 4+ with 40 TB+ capacity in 2026, followed by Mozaic 5+ providing 50 TB+ drives by 2028, and is aiming for 100 TB HDDs by 2030 as part of its larger HAMR roadmap. While this technological advancement positions Seagate for long-term growth, it also introduces execution risks if demand does not scale as expected.
Seagate forecasts Q4 adjusted EPS (June fiscal year) to be between $2.20 and $2.60, with revenue expected between $2.25–$2.55 billion. Consensus is predicting 38% revenue growth in FY 2025 and 13% in FY 2026. Nevertheless, even solid growth expectations cannot safeguard the stock from macroeconomic shocks, valuation declines, or operational setbacks. With very little margin for error, any misstep could lead to a steep correction.
How resilient is STX stock during a downturn?
STX stock has performed worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during several recent downturns. While investors remain hopeful for a soft landing for the U.S. economy, how severe could it get if another recession occurs? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how key stocks performed during and after the last six market crashes.
• STX stock decreased 58.2% from a high of $116.02 on 4 January 2022 to $48.49 on 3 November 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 27 May 2025
• Since then, the stock has risen to a high of $141.44 on 29 June 2025
• STX stock fell 35.6% from a high of $63.23 on 24 January 2020 to $40.73 on 20 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 December 2020
• STX stock dropped 89.1% from a high of $28.60 on 2 November 2007 to $3.11 on 23 January 2009, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 April 2012
Valuation
Currently, Seagate trades at 18x consensus 2025 earnings, significantly above its three-year average of only 5x. Its price-to-sales ratio has escalated to 3x, rising from 1.2x in FY 2022. Even its forward P/S of 3x surpasses the three-year average of 2.8x. In comparison, Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC), a direct competitor, typically trades around 1x P/S during market downturns. Investor confidence is evidently reflected in the stock's elevated valuation—but with greater height comes a steeper potential fall. The average analyst price target of $125 suggests an 11% downside, even without factoring in a market correction.
Considering the wider economic uncertainties, ask yourself this: Do you plan to hold onto your Seagate stock now, or will you panic and sell if it starts to drop to $100, $90, or even lower? Hanging onto a declining stock is never an easy task. Trefis partners with Empirical Asset Management—an investment firm in the Boston area—whose asset allocation strategies produced positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost over 40%. Empirical has integrated the Trefis HQ Portfolio into its asset allocation framework to offer clients better returns and less risk compared to the benchmark index—a smoother journey, as evidenced in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
eBay Inc (EBAY) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and AI Innovations ...
Revenue: $2.73 billion, grew over 4% year over year. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $19.5 billion, increased by 4% year over year. Non-GAAP Operating Income: $775 million, up 8% year over year. Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.37, increased by 16% year over year. GAAP Earnings Per Share: $0.79, up 77% year over year. Advertising Revenue: $482 million, with first-party ads growing 17% to $455 million. Free Cash Flow: Negative $441 million, impacted by $935 million of cash outflows related to taxes. Share Repurchases: $625 million repurchased at an average price of $81 per share. Cash and Non-Equity Investments: $5.4 billion at the end of the quarter. Gross Debt: $6.7 billion at the end of the quarter. Focus Category GMV Growth: Over 10% year over year. Operating Margin: Non-GAAP operating margin was 28.4%, up 50 basis points year over year. Dividend: Quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share declared for Q3. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with EBAY. Release Date: July 30, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) exceeded consensus expectations with key financial metrics, including a 4% growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $19.5 billion and a 4% increase in revenue to $2.73 billion. Focus categories, such as collectibles, showed strong performance with over 10% GMV growth, significantly outpacing core categories. The company successfully leveraged generative AI to optimize listing titles and images, resulting in higher quality scores and improved performance in product listing ads. eBay Live, a new initiative, is gaining traction with increasing GMV and watch time, expanding beyond trading cards to luxury watches, jewelry, and apparel. The expansion of the partnership with Klarna into the US market has surpassed expectations, attracting a younger demographic and boosting high-ticket item sales. Negative Points The European market remains challenging with low consumer confidence and economic growth, impacting eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY)'s international performance. The company faces potential disruptions from tariffs and the elimination of de minimis exemptions, which could affect future growth. Despite strong performance in focus categories, eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) anticipates some moderation in trading cards growth due to tougher year-over-year comparisons. The reinvestment cycle and GMV pressure have been headwinds to margins, with the company focusing on balancing top-line growth and operating income. Free cash flow was negative at $-441 million, impacted by significant cash outflows related to taxes on equity investment sales and repatriation tax payments. Q & A Highlights Q: Jamie, can you provide more details on eBay's marketing strategy and how AI is being integrated into it? A: Jamie Iannone, President and CEO: Our marketing strategy is a full-funnel approach, including high-profile events like the Met Gala and partnerships with influencers. We have seen efficiencies in our marketing spend due to competitive dynamics. AI is a significant opportunity for us, enhancing personalization and relevance for customers. We are developing our own AI capabilities, such as an AI shopping assistant, to improve the customer experience and maintain our position as a destination for enthusiasts. Q: What are the key categories driving eBay's growth, and how is AI impacting buyer behavior? A: Jamie Iannone, President and CEO: Our focus categories, such as collectibles and parts & accessories, are driving growth. We continue to innovate in these areas, like our partnership with PSA for collectibles. AI is helping us optimize listings and improve buyer engagement. While AI-driven traffic is still small, it shows a high shopping intent, aligning with our strategy of offering unique inventory and value-added services. Q: Can you discuss the factors contributing to the strong performance in the US market and your strategic investments? A: Jamie Iannone, President and CEO: The US market showed broad-based strength, with growth in both sold items and average selling prices. Our strategic investments include expanding pre-loved fashion, enhancing C2C experiences in the UK and Germany, and developing eBay Live. We are also investing in AI to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. Q: How is eBay's focus on fashion evolving, and what is the potential for this category? A: Jamie Iannone, President and CEO: Fashion is a significant opportunity, with over $10 billion in sales on our platform. We are leveraging generative AI to enhance discovery and engagement. Our marketing efforts, including influencer partnerships and events like the Met Gala, are reshaping the category. We are excited about the potential for growth as we bring innovations from the UK to the US market. Q: What is the outlook for the trading cards category, and how do you see margins evolving? A: Jamie Iannone, President and CEO: Trading cards have shown strong growth, but it is not always linear due to factors like release calendars and rookie classes. We believe in the long-term potential and continue to invest in this category. Regarding margins, Peggy Alford, CFO, noted that top-line growth drives healthy margins. Our focus on strategic initiatives is aimed at accelerating growth and maintaining a balance between top-line and bottom-line performance. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Aware Inc (AWRE) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic Growth ...
Release Date: July 30, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Aware Inc (NASDAQ:AWRE) achieved best-in-class performance in the Department of Homeland Security's remote identity validation technology demonstration, highlighting its strength in combating identity fraud. The company received strong third-party validation for its technological capabilities, being recognized as a luminary in core identity technology in the PRISM project's Deepfake and Synthetic Identity Report. Aware Inc (NASDAQ:AWRE) has expanded its federal footprint internationally, securing national ID programs for two Middle Eastern governments. The company has made significant enhancements to its awareness platform, improving facial matching speed and mobile face capture reliability, which enhances user experience. Aware Inc (NASDAQ:AWRE) has strengthened its leadership team with strategic hires, including a new Chief Marketing Officer with extensive cybersecurity marketing experience, to drive demand and brand visibility. Negative Points Total revenue for the quarter decreased to $3.9 million from $4.3 million in the prior year period, largely due to the timing of perpetual license sales. Operating expenses increased to $5.9 million compared to $5.7 million in Q2 of 2024, attributed to expanding the team and hiring key executive leaders. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $1.8 million or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to a GAAP net loss of $1.1 million or $0.05 per diluted share in the same year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q2 increased to $1.4 million compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1 million in the second quarter of 2024. Cash equivalents and marketable securities decreased to $23.7 million as of June 30, 2025, from $27.8 million as of December 31, 2024, indicating a reduction in available capital. Q & A Highlights Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with AWRE. Q: Lidos has been a long-standing partner of Aware. Today they announced a significant task order awarded by the FBI. Can you provide some insight into the press release and what this means for Aware's partnership with Lidos? A: AJ Amlani, CEO: We're very excited about the ongoing investments by the US federal government into the biometric industry and identity. While we don't comment on specific customers or partners, we look forward to being part of these investments as the federal government continues to recognize the importance of identity and biometrics. Q: Based on your current visibility, what do you expect for revenue in the second half of 2025 and what are the key factors that could influence that performance? A: David Traverse, CFO: We view the second half of 2025 as an important period for pipeline advancement and customer onboarding. However, revenue timing can vary by deal, and we don't have a clear line of sight yet. Our focus remains on execution and bringing new customers into production, setting us up for multi-year contracts and meaningful revenue over time. Q: Looking into 2026 and beyond, what are the key revenue growth levers you're focused on now? A: AJ Amlani, CEO: Our key growth levers include federal government work, the law enforcement market, and the commercial market. The US federal government has increased its budget significantly, with plans to spend on border security and related initiatives. In the commercial market, the acceptance of biometrics is growing, driven by technologies like Face ID, which enhance privacy and security. Q: Given that recurring revenue grew modestly, what steps are you taking to accelerate your subscription-based business? A: Brian Krause, CRO: We are investing in our go-to-market process and teams, focusing on scalable biometric projects and solutions. Our efforts are centered on larger market segments where our software solutions are deployed as enterprise infrastructure, leading to long-term, durable relationships. Q: How are you improving the sales cycle velocity and what are the bottlenecks today? A: Brian Krause, CRO: We have strengthened our end-to-end sales process and teams to focus on customer requirements. This alignment often results in shorter proof of value testing and higher success rates. Our focus is on understanding customer needs and delivering value quickly. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data


Business Wire
22 minutes ago
- Business Wire
Swiss Enterprises Advance with Private and Hybrid Cloud
ZÜRICH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Swiss enterprises are accelerating their adoption of private and hybrid cloud solutions as they reassess IT priorities and respond to the limitations of public clouds, according to a new research report published today by Information Services Group (ISG) (Nasdaq: III), a global AI-centered technology research and advisory firm. Over the last four quarters, companies have been actively seeking strategies to improve efficiency and cost effectiveness. Implementing hybrid cloud infrastructures provides enterprises with the necessary cost control, scalability and agility. The 2025 ISG Provider Lens ® Private/Hybrid Cloud – Data Center Services report for Switzerland finds that organizations are moving from a cloud-first approach to a differentiated cloud model. As more companies recognize the challenges and limitations of relying solely on public cloud services, there is an increasing focus on private and hybrid cloud infrastructures. Enterprises are also pursuing these strategies in the context of targeted approaches to rationalizing budgets and maximizing returns on technology investments. Simultaneously, they are implementing FinOps frameworks to rein in cloud expenses and transfer responsibility for cloud resource consumption to IT teams. 'Over the last four quarters, companies have been actively seeking strategies to improve efficiency and cost effectiveness,' said Uwe Ladwig, managing director at ISG. 'Implementing hybrid cloud infrastructures provides enterprises with the necessary cost control, scalability and agility.' A fundamental shift is under way in how Swiss enterprises manage their data centers, with a clear trend toward decreasing physical size, the report says. More organizations are turning to alternatives such as colocation providers, motivated by the need to reduce costs and increase scalability. By shifting from traditional, on-premises data centers and using colocation providers' expertise, enterprises can optimize IT management, increase flexibility and resilience and focus more effectively on core objectives. Sustainability is a key trend in Swiss cloud and data center strategies, ISG says. Organizations are expanding investments in energy-efficient data centers and advanced cooling technologies. They are engaging with providers that use waste heat from data centers for district heating and industrial use, helping enterprises meet environmental goals while optimizing energy consumption. A growing interest in using generative AI to transform business processes is also influencing Swiss cloud strategies, the report says. While GenAI solutions are widely accessible via cloud platforms, their adoption requires additional data center capacity and significant investments. Many organizations face budget challenges yet continue to prioritize actionable insights, predictive analytics and automation. Enterprises are looking for providers that offer tools and capabilities to support AI innovation and new revenue opportunities. As Swiss enterprises accelerate digital transformation and adopt hybrid clouds, they face a heightened risk of cyberattacks. Protecting sensitive data while meeting new regulatory requirements has become a central challenge for enterprises, prompting a stronger focus on security innovation and proactive risk management. 'With growing cyberthreats and tight data protection regulations, security and compliance are becoming important aspects of cloud planning,' said Ulrich Meister, senior analyst, ISG Provider Lens Research, and lead author of the report. 'Swiss enterprises are seeking providers that offer comprehensive security strategies, including physical security and network segmentation.' The report also explores other trends in the private/hybrid cloud and data center services market in Switzerland, including a rise in strategic partnerships among data center outsourcing providers and an increasing focus on AI for IT operations (AIOps) to monitor all aspects of hybrid environments. For more insights into the private/hybrid cloud and data center challenges that enterprises in Switzerland face, plus ISG's advice for overcoming them, see the ISG Provider Lens ® Focal Points briefing here. The 2025 ISG Provider Lens ® Private/Hybrid Cloud – Data Center Services report for Switzerland evaluates the capabilities of 82 providers across six quadrants: Managed Services — Large Accounts, Managed Services — Midmarket, Managed Hosting — Large Accounts, Managed Hosting — Midmarket, Colocation Services and AI-Ready Infrastructure Consulting. The report names Swisscom as a Leader in all six quadrants. It names Green and Kyndryl as Leaders in three quadrants each. Accenture, Atos, Aveniq, Capgemini, CONVOTIS, ELCA/EveryWare, HCLTech, MTF and ti&m are named as Leaders in two quadrants each. Axians, Bechtle, BitHawk, Digital Realty, Equinix, Netcloud, NTS Workspace, NTT DATA, STACK Infrastructure, TCS, T-Systems, UMB and Wipro are named as Leaders in one quadrant each. In addition, CANCOM, NorthC Datacenters and Rackspace Technology are named as Rising Stars — companies with a 'promising portfolio' and 'high future potential' by ISG's definition — in one quadrant each. In the area of customer experience, Persistent Systems is named the global ISG CX Star Performer for 2025 among private/hybrid cloud and data center service providers. Persistent Systems earned the highest customer satisfaction scores in ISG's Voice of the Customer survey, part of the ISG Star of Excellence™ program, the premier quality recognition for the technology and business services industry. Customized versions of the report are available from ELCA/EveryWare, Green, Leuchter IT and Swisscom. The 2025 ISG Provider Lens ® Private/Hybrid Cloud – Data Center Services report for Switzerland is available to subscribers or for one-time purchase on this webpage. About ISG Provider Lens ® Research The ISG Provider Lens ® Quadrant research series is the only service provider evaluation of its kind to combine empirical, data-driven research and market analysis with the real-world experience and observations of ISG's global advisory team. Enterprises will find a wealth of detailed data and market analysis to help guide their selection of appropriate sourcing partners, while ISG advisors use the reports to validate their own market knowledge and make recommendations to ISG's enterprise clients. The research currently covers providers offering their services globally, across Europe, as well as in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the U.K., France, Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, the Nordics, Australia and Singapore/Malaysia, with additional markets to be added in the future. For more information about ISG Provider Lens research, please visit this webpage. About ISG ISG (Nasdaq: III) is a global AI-centered technology research and advisory firm. A trusted partner to more than 900 clients, including 75 of the world's top 100 enterprises, ISG is a long-time leader in technology and business services that is now at the forefront of leveraging AI to help organizations achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm, founded in 2006, is known for its proprietary market data, in-depth knowledge of provider ecosystems, and the expertise of its 1,600 professionals worldwide working together to help clients maximize the value of their technology investments.