2025 NBA Playoffs: Predictions, storylines to follow in NBA conference semifinals roundtable

NBC Sports

05-05-2025

With the 2025 NBA Playoffs moving to the conference semifinals, we got Kurt Helin, Raphielle Johnson, and Noah Rubin together to discuss what has happened so far and what to expect as the journey to the NBA Finals continues.
Knicks vs. Celtics
Nuggets vs. Thunder
Pacers vs. Cavaliers
Timberwolves vs. Warriors (coming soon)
Aidan Berg,
Noah Rubin: Pistons. Not only were they able to end their postseason drought, but they have perfectly married classic, old school, Detroit toughness with modern day basketball. They have a franchise player in Cade Cunningham, other exciting lottery picks like Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren, and they've established a culture. The key now is to not rest on their laurels. If the Pistons continue to make moves to improve the roster, they can ascend to the upper echelon of the East.
Raphielle Johnson: I think it's Detroit, for multiple reasons. First and foremost, the play of Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren in their first-round series against the Knicks should excite the fan base. They are all young players the franchise can build around moving forward. Cunningham's new contract goes into effect next season, while Duren is extension-eligible this summer and Thompson in the summer of 2026.
While there are decisions to be made regarding Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley and Dennis Schröder in free agency, the Pistons have the flexibility to bring back some of those contributors. Also, they have the ability to take a 'swing' in free agency or via trade that would not put the young core at risk. Lastly, they played this series without Jaden Ivey, and Isaiah Stewart did not see action after Game 1. Add the healthy version of those two to the rotation, and the Pistons are headed in the right direction.
Kurt Helin: While Detroit is a great pick, I will take Orlando here. You can see a path for the Magic from where they are now to title contention because: 1) They have a clear identity and style of play; 2) They have cornerstone stars — plural — in place with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner; 3) They have a coach I think is good enough to get them there in Jamahl Mosley. Their need for another high-level offensive creator and more shooting are obvious fixes, although finding and paying the right players as extensions for Banchero, Wagner and Jalen Suggs kick in will not be easy. This is a team entering a 'win now' phase and this is a critical offseason for them, but I'm high on the Magic's future.
Rubin: Definitely. The core four is incredible, but it's the depth of this team that will make them tough to beat four times. They'll be tested more against Indiana than they were against the Heat, but this team is built to match up with anyone. De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome are two players that would start on other playoff teams. They'll go as far as Donovan Mitchell takes them, but that doesn't mean he'll have to will them to victory like he has had to in the past.
Johnson: If we base this on who's discussed in the mainstream space, absolutely the Cavs are being slept on. And it's unfortunate. They rolled through the East during the regular season and made short work of the Heat, but life will get much more difficult with the Pacers in their way. Kenny Atkinson has been the perfect coach for this group, and the additions of Ty Jerome and De'Andre Hunter have more than paid off. Evan Mobley continues to flourish, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland have been solid, and Donovan Mitchell remains the star who leads the way. This team is more than capable of winning it all this season, something we haven't said about the Cavaliers since LeBron was there.
Helin: Among casual fans and on some of the biggest media stages, absolutely. The leap Evan Mobley made is not getting enough acknowledgement, same with the play of Darius Garland (the Cavs need him healthy), and the maturity of Donovan Mitchell's game this season. A lot of fans still see this as Boston's East to lose, but I came out of the first round watching the Cavaliers dismantle the Heat (it wasn't close) while the Celtics battled the Magic and thought the NBA Finals may well return to Cleveland. It's close. The Cavaliers are playing near their peak, Boston is banged up and not there. We're on our way to an Eastern Conference Finals showdown between these teams and the Cavaliers may simply be better.
Rubin: In theory, sure. Boston is banged up enough for a healthy, well-rested team to take advantage. Unfortunately, New York just escaped a tough, physical, six-game series with the Pistons, and head coach Tom Thibodeau isn't exactly known for managing the fatigue of his players. The Knicks are talented enough to have a chance, but I'm more worried about the health of their players than I am of the Celtics.
Johnson: Preparing for one game during a full season and preparing for four to seven games against the same opponent are completely different deals. That said, the Celtics are clear favorites in this series. Of course, the statuses of Jrue Holiday (hamstring), Jayson Tatum (wrist) and Jaylen Brown (knee) are worth tracking, but one also has to be mindful of Jalen Brunson's ankle. New York's more significant issue is the state of their bench, which provided little value outside of Cameron Payne's fourth-quarter explosion in Game 1 against the Pistons. Even if the Celtics aren't healthy, their bench is superior to New York's.
Helin: No. That starts with the fact that the Celtics aren't the only ones banged up, the Knicks have Jalen Brunson's ankle and Josh Hart's wrist as concerns. Brunson has to be otherworldly just for the Knicks to have a slim chance in this series, he can't be slowed. Would the Celtics miss Jrue Holiday if he can't go, at least to start the series? Sure. However, that just means Derrick White starts as the primary defender on Brunson with Jaylen Brown getting a turn, and as Brunson drives the lane he's going to find Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford waiting for him. As the regular season showed, this is just a bad matchup for New York, nothing has changed about that.
Rubin: Nobody has a great chance, because there aren't many advantages that any team can have against OKC. They're the deepest team in the league, with stars at every position. Nikola Jokic might be the only player in the league that nobody truly has an answer for, and if the Thunder have a question mark, it's down low. Jokic wasn't quite as dominant in the first round in comparison to other recent postseasons, but Ivica Zubac was a tough matchup. Jokic should have more success against OKC, and if that can open things up for his teammates, Denver should have success against a tough Thunder defense. Plus, the Nuggets are a battle-tested group that have played together for a long time. That championship experience could come into play here.
Johnson: Full disclosure, I didn't expect Minnesota to get out of the first round. But the Timberwolves may be the team best equipped to take down Oklahoma City, regardless of who they face in the second round. Anthony Edwards backs down from no one, and the improved play of Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels were also factors in their elimination of the Lakers. Add in Rudy Gobert, who probably receives more disrespect than he deserves, and a bench rotation led by Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo, and this is a group capable of winning the West.
Helin: Before the playoffs started my answer would have been Denver. However, after seeing both the Nuggets and Timberwolves in person a couple of times in the first round, I will change that answer to Minnesota. The Timberwolves have the size to match up with and give the Thunder a challenge, they have high-level defenders like Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, and they have a superstar playing like a top-five guy in Anthony Edwards. Denver doesn't have the depth and their only hope is a full-series return of 2023 Jamal Murray, which I don't think they get. Minnesota in the conference finals two years in a row was not on my 2025 bingo card, but here we are.
Rubin: I'm going with Julius Randle. Shortly after Minnesota traded away Karl-Anthony Towns to bring in Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, there were questions about how Anthony Edwards would mesh with the former All-NBA forward. Would one basketball be enough for them? The early returns weren't great, but they figured things out as the season progressed, and it culminated in an excellent first round for Randle. He averaged 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.2 threes per game in the Timberwolves' gentleman's sweep of the Lakers. Game 1 wasn't great (16 points, seven turnovers), but he only turned it over six times during the final four games of the series. He was criticized heavily when he was in New York, but he has started this postseason well and will be key to Minnesota's quest for a title.
Johnson: Ausar Thompson. While we watched twin brother Amen step into a prominent role in Houston, Ausar's progress in Detroit was slowed by a blood clot that not only ended his 2023-24 season prematurely but also limited his role to begin this season. What he did defensively in the Knicks series, not to mention his offensive work in the dunker spot during Game 5, and Ausar feels like a player whose reputation has grown substantially. I'm excited to see what's to come from him in the near future.
Helin: Doctor, Doctor, the Thompson twins have been good. They have been king for a day… alright, enough with the '80s references, but they have done a lot for their reputations this postseason. Amen has shown both his high-level defense and has taken on some shot creation, showing his potential for growth as the Rockets pushed the Warriors to the limit. Ausar did as good a job defending Jalen Brunson for a series as a human could and his play helped the Pistons push the Knicks. They have been amazing. (Cade Cunningham solidified his place as a superstar in the league and could also qualify in this category.)
Rubin: It has to be the Bucks. Between Damian Lillard's Achilles tear, Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors and multiple poor trades that have left this front office with few options, there seems to be only one path forward: trade Giannis for a haul. They don't have control of their first-round pick until 2031, but they don't have a contending team on the roster. Hopefully a bidding war will allow them to maximize the return they can get for Antetokounmpo, but they can't afford to wait. Regardless of what happens, a lengthy rebuild feels inevitable.
Johnson: All three teams whose cities begin with the letter 'M' appear to be in serious trouble in the aftermath of the first round. Memphis hasn't been right since Ja Morant told the world that he was 'fine in the West,' while Miami had the look of a team that should have foregone the Play-In tournament and taken their chances with the draft lottery in its sweep at the hands of Cleveland. But Milwaukee is my pick here. They don't have many places to turn for help in improving that roster, especially with Damian Lillard (Achilles) likely to miss most of the 2025-26 season. Unfortunately, the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors have already kicked into high gear, and that's a brutal situation for a fan base in a smaller media market to deal with.
Helin: While Milwaukee is a team at a crossroads, I think Memphis is in a worse position. Keep him or trade him, the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, a top-five player in the world at or near his peak. The Memphis Grizzlies were built around the idea that Ja Morant could be that level of player, and guys like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane could be the supporting cast he needs. Morant is not that guy — he's good, an All-Star, but his transcendence comes and goes, we only see it in short stretches. The Grizzlies might explore trading Morant, but his market would be soft. JJJ is the best two-way player on this team and could get a lot more expensive if he makes an All-NBA team before his extension kicks in (there's a solid chance he does). OKC showed how far Memphis is away from contending and there is no clear path to make up that ground.